John Collins (PF/C, Wake Forest)

 

Measurables: 6’9.5”, 6’11” wingspan, 225 lbs, 19.6 years old

Strengths

  • Ridiculously efficient last year – 28.8 PTS/40 and 14.8 REBS/40, 62% FG, .256 WS/40 (7th in NCAA), 21.1 TRB% (1st in ACC), 10.0 FTA/40, 75% FT, 2.4 BLK/40, 6.6 BLK%, 35.9 PER
  • Very good around rim – 74.7%
  • 2 point efficiency outside rim is encouraging – 45%
  • Great rim runner in transition – explosive with load time near rim
  • Finds a way behind the defense in transition
  • Most efficient PnR scorer in NCAA – extremely good finisher, explosive near rim + solid touch
  • Has bounce to get UP for lobs
  • Good quickness on defense – offers upside of defending 4s
  • Plays with his hands up on D – good way to compensate for size
  • Solid switchability given quicks + leaping ability
  • Has a lot of work to do on D but flies around, uses athleticism
  • Strong base, helps him establish position
  • Able to finish through contact
  • Very high motor – dives hard off screens, sets strong picks
  • Elite offensive rebounding ability – 16.4 ORB% – tips out, fights
  • Vertical helps him make up for subpar height/reach
  • Very nice touch on jump hooks/turnarounds – quick release
  • Faces up in mid-post – promise for extending to mid range/3 point
  • Makes nice post plays off of 1 or 2 dribbles
  • Jumper form looks promising for extending to 3 point
  • Clearly is a hard worker – 134th in class, improved a ton from freshman to sophomore year

Weaknesses

  • Poor measurables for a center – 8’10.5” standing reach is very poor number for guy who might be full-time C
  • Will have to play with high effort at all times on D to compensate for size
  • Needs to add a lot of strength to really bang with NBA bigs
  • Will likely struggle vs length due to lack of elite extension
  • Doesn’t turn it over a ton but needs to clean up playmaking – 4.5 AST%, 11.1 TOV%
  • Defensive IQ has to improve – 12 games with 4+ fouls
  • Struggles to contest vs bigger players – size is a real problem
  • Doesn’t get in stance on perimeter
  • Easily exposed by quicker guards in switches
  • Looks completely lost in PnR/help coverage at times
  • Lack of effort on defensive end flares up, particularly closing out
  • Will need to spend a ton of time in film room learning defense
  • Pushed around very easily in low block on D
  • Often is completely lost off the ball on defense – serious issues
  • Very little ability to create for others – highly problematic at 4 spot
  • Posts big numbers, but doesn’t always play within flow of offense
  • How does he translate? Lacks size, perimeter game, functionality within NBA offense
  • Poor feel as a driver – easily forced into travels
  • Reliance on power/athleticism won’t work well in NBA
  • Overall needs to add finesse on offensive end

Overall

  • John Collins was arguably the most efficient player in the NCAA last year, posting ridiculous stats across the board and flying onto the draft radar. He’s an athletic beast whose rebounding will translate, but his size and offensive translation leave questions. He’s caught between positions, a center in a power forward’s body, and seems a hallmark of the old NBA rather than where the game is headed. His spot in the NBA is likely as an Enes Kanter type who comes off the bench to wreck offensively and on the boards while playing poor defense. Still, he’s very young and has improved tremendously over the past 2 years. He’s not a finished product and will improve as he gets stronger and smarter. Even then, his size and length will likely always cap his ceiling, unless he becomes a truly elite shooter and smart defender.

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