Can the Yankees knock off the red-hot Indians?
Yankees and Indians, 10 years later I have to ask, where ya at midges?
These two teams love playing each other in the ALDS in years that end in 7: 1997, 2007, and now 2017. The Indians are 2 for 2 so far, can they complete the 7s 3-peat?
This season New York and Cleveland have played each other 7 times. The Indians won 5, the Yankees 2. The teams split their series in Cleveland in early August and the Indians swept the Yankees in New York the last week of the same month. The Tribe has outscored the Bronx Bombers by a total score of 31-20 and has bested them in home runs by a margin of 10-6.
(I had a nice little paragraph right here with how the likely starters faired against each other head-to-head in the regular season. But then Joe Girardi had to go and announce his rotation which was not what I expected based on when I thought Severino/Tanaka would start, so those regular season match-ups no longer matched up with the playoff ones. Thanks, coach.)
This is going to be one heck of a series, mostly because these two teams are essentially mirrored images of each other, with the Yankees being a slightly younger and less experienced version of the Indians. They both hang their hats on strong starting pitching (Indians 1, Yankees 7 based on WARs of 23.1 and 15.2), absolute shutdown bullpens (Yankees 1, Indians 2 with WARs of 9.2 and 8.6), and lineups that can beat you 1-9 (Yankees 3, Indians 4 in terms of WAR at 27.9 and 27.3). The Indians are essentially playing their little brother who is built just like them.
The Indians rotation will go Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin (subject to change) and Corey Kluber again. You may be wondering why the Indians ace is not getting the ball to open the series. Terry Francona explained that this allows Kluber to pitch on regular rest in the ALDS with an extra day off before he gets the ball Friday night. Kluber has said he prefers to throw on regular rest, and this allows him to do so in Game 5 if necessary. Plus, for those who have not been paying attention, Trevor Bauer is having a phenomenal second half with a record of 10-2 and a 3.01 ERA. If he can stay out of his own head he is certainly capable of providing a Game 1 win at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. As of the writing of this article, the Yankees have only announced their first 4 starters: Sonny Gray in Game 1, CC Sabathia Game 2, Masahiro Tanaka in Game 3, and Luis Severino Game 4, which likely means Gray again for Game 5. In summary, that’s:
- Game 1: Bauer vs. Gray
- Game 2: Kluber vs. Sabathia
- Game 3: Carrasco vs. Tanaka
- Game 4: Tomlin vs. Severino (if necessary)
- Game 5: Kluber vs. Gray (assuming) (if necessary)
Ultimately I think the Indians take this series in 4, with one loss being at home. The Indians actually have a better record on the road than at home (53-28 vs. 49-32). I could see losing Game 1 if Trevor gets off to a bad start, but Kluber vs. Sabathia at home in the playoffs is a match-up I will take all day every day. Sabathia has a 4.53 career playoff ERA vs. Kluber’s 1.83 (granted that was just 6 starts in 2016). Carrasco should beat Tanaka in the first game back in the Bronx. And after Severino’s disastrous outing Tuesday night, having the cool calm collected veteran in Tomlin toss against the 23-year old just got rocked kid is a better match-up than some of the other possibilities I was imagining for Game 4 (Gray again, or where I assumed Tanaka would get slotted). And if necessary, which I think there is a pretty decent shot it will be despite my Indians in 4 predictions, you’re left with Kluber vs. Gray again. And honestly, at least in terms of my blood pressure, it doesn’t matter whose name is after the “vs.” when Corey Kluber takes the mound.
Game 1 is Thursday night with a first pitch at 7:38 and will be carried on FS1. From now until the first week of November I will have an irregular heartbeat and likely will miss a few beats entirely. See you all on the other side.
Roll Tribe.
