Sam Darnold is still on top after four weeks.
Fans of certain teams may be more vested in this storyline than others, but it’ll be interesting to watch the handful of college QBs who have a chance to be top 10 picks in next year’s draft.
So with that in mind, here’s my amateur opinion of the horse race after college week 4.
Top 5 after Week 4
(1) Sam Darnold, USC
Previous rank: 1
This week
Win at Cal, 20-10
26-38 passing, 223 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int
Current stock
Sam Darnold continues to throw picks (now 7 over four games) but give no true reason to knock him down the list. He’s still completing 67.1% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt: almost identical to his breakout season last year (67.2%, 8.4).
More intriguing may be the added horserace among teams that may get the #1 pick. All along the Jets seemed to be the heavy favorites, but we may have dark horses emerging like the Giants and Chargers. Wouldn’t be a perfect parallel if Eli Manning and Philip Rivers’ teams drafted QBs again in the top 5?
(2) Josh Rosen, UCLA
Previous rank: 2
This week
Loss at Stanford, 58-34
40-60 passing, 480 yards, 3 TDs, 2 int
Effect on stock
Even when Josh Rosen was making a miracle comeback against Texas A&M, I wasn’t bullish on this particular UCLA team’s chances of contention. They have major holes on the offensive line and run defense. That turned out to come into fruition here, as Stanford gashed them for 405 yards on the ground alone.
I wouldn’t count this against Rosen much. Instead, coach Jim Mora Jr. may be the one feeling the effects. He’s a defensive-minded coach who simply can’t field a unit worthy of Pac 12 contention. If Rosen leaves after his junior here, Mora may be out of a job.
(3) Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
Previous rank : 3
This week
Loss vs. TCU, 44-31
22-41 passing, 398 yards, 2 TDs, 2 int
Effect on stock
This was the first bad week from senior Mason Rudolph. It’s hard to blame him for the disappointing loss when his team gave up 238 rushing yards, but those two picks turned out to be costly.
Rudolph has enough “tools” to be a starter, but the question will emerge about how team-dependent he is. For his sake, he may be better served going later in R1 to a team that can groom him in a pro-style system for a full year before he takes over as a starter.
(4) Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Previous rank: 4
This week
Win vs. Kent State, 42-3
18-22 passing, 299 yards, 2 TDs, 2 int, rush TD
Effect on stock
It’s hard to take away much from a blowout win over Kent State, but it certainly helped juice Lamar Jackson’s much-debated completion percentages.
(5) Luke Falk, Washington State
Previous rank: 5
This week
Win vs. Nevada, 45-7
36-47 passing, 478 yards, 5 TDs, 0 int
Effect on stock
Senior Luke Falk had the best week among draftable passers. There’s no doubt that he benefits from Mike Leach’s offense, but there’s a legitimate argument he can make as a potential starter in the NFL on the right offense — specifically, a quick-hitting passing game.
Other names (not in order)
Josh Allen, Wyoming
A couple of terrible performances (against Iowa and Oregon) knocked big Josh Allen out of my top 5. Despite that, the draft experts continue to defend him and tout him as a top 5 pick overall, citing his physical tools and potential.
This week, home against Hawaii should have been set up for Josh Allen to prove those defenders right. Once again, he flopped, completing 9/19 passes for 92 total yards and 1 TD. I’m sorry, but I just don’t understand how you can trust a kid with this marginal of production as a R1 pick. He may get drafted that high, but it would amount to a huge risk. His stats this season (54.8% passing, 5.7 yards per attempt) are Hackenberg-ian right now.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Oklahoma had trouble putting Baylor away, but Mayfield continued to cruise (13-19 passing, 283 yards, 3 TDs, 0 int). He can send in his RSVP for the Heisman ceremony now. He’s almost certain to be a top 5 candidate.
Jake Browning, Washington
The Huskies cruised 37-10 over Colorado, but Browning didn’t have a great week: 11/21 passing for 160 yards, 1 TD, 1 int. The true junior continues to be midpack among draftable QBs.
Nick Fitzgerald (Mississippi State) and Brett Rypien (Boise State)
I was excited to expand my list and consider some of the dark horse candidates.
Unfortunately, this week wasn’t kind to them. Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald followed up a big win with a dud at Georgia — 14/29 for 83 passing yards, 0 TD, and 2 int. Fitzgerald has the size (6’5″ 230) and speed that you love, but it’s hard to envision him as a star in the pros right now. Even his running tends to be straight-line speed as opposed to elusiveness. In terms of Dan Mullen passers, he feels more like Tim Tebow than Dak Prescott. However, as a junior, there’s still time to develop.
Meanwhile, Boise’s Brett Rypien has more of a pro-game, but not necessarily pro production right now. He had a disappointing effort in a loss to Virginia — 24/42, 285 yards, 0 TD, 1 int. You can make the argument that he’s a Jake Browning-type prospect, but that’s more a mid-round pick and future backup than anything.
