Three stars.
Whether it’s a seemingly innocuous two-way deal in October or a splashy July free agent acquisition, every transaction in the NBA serves as the means to a very simple but often impossible end that is (or should be) on every GM’s mind: procure three great – not good, but great – players. Three stars.
The yearly fulcrum to Adam Silver’s league reality arrives this Thursday, when the NBA Draft welcomes a new batch of talent and spurs (pun intended) action, or inaction, on a number of trade fronts in an effort to uncover those three All-NBA caliber players. All the melodrama of a league that seems to embrace and even thrive on it comes to a head on this fateful evening, and this year’s draft is particularly ripe for explosive storylines. Consider:
…it could represent a last gasp for Dan Gilbert and Kolby Altmann to convince LeBron to remain in Ohio, whether it be by using the 8th pick on a player James wants (Trae Young? Collin Sexton?) or to package it for a veteran (Kemba Walker? Paul George? Kawhi Leonard?).
…a massive offer including 2018 picks for disgruntled Kawhi Leonard could force San Antonio’s hand, with immediate assets perhaps representing a more enticing reality than waiting on a 2019 draft crop that appears to be much shallower at this stage.
… jockeying for salary space by packaging picks with bad contracts has become standard operating procedure in today’s NBA. Albatross contracts belonging to Chandler Parsons, Luol Deng and Ryan Anderson could find themselves tied to first-round selections to create cap flexibility, max contract room and extension leverage.
…the general trickle-down effect that the impending free agency of LeBron James (as well as Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins) will have across the league. The presumed suspects (Lakers, Rockets, and Sixers) will surely look to free up room, but will they sacrifice major pieces without knowing if they’re LeBron’s preferred destination? If so, third parties could stand to benefit from teams desperate to clear money (sometimes attached to talented young players or valuable picks) in potential three-team deals.
…the Boston Celtics face a logjam of quality pieces with the returns of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on the horizon, leaving free-agent-to-be Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown seemingly without roles deserving of their abilities. The draft represents a distinct opportunity for Danny Ainge to strike for a big name, or a younger, higher-ceiling player better suited for their present roster.
…teams who have spun their wheels over the past few years like Portland, Washington, Milwaukee and Toronto who with the same stale roster construction may decide it’s time to shift off some of their incumbents. Names like CJ McCollum, Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, John Wall, Demar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and restricted free agents Jabari Parker and Clint Capela could all be on the table at the swap meet.
And each of those plot points represent decisions that largely don’t touch upon the draft class itself– a deep and interesting group littered with starry names, immediate contributors, raw physical freaks and polarizing skill sets. Within this group, there are a variety of players capable of being one of the three stars a franchise needs to take that leap into contention. Taking these swings often requires conviction; there may be no middle ground between stardom and bust. I’m of the belief that if you’re a GM drafting in the lottery, it’s usually worth the gamble. That risk-reward calculus is the compass that guides my big board, and for a league decreasingly married to traditional positional norms, with very few exceptions this is the list I would use for almost any lottery-bound franchise.
Luka Doncic represents the safest international selection in the history of the NBA Draft.
1. Luka Doncic, Primary Ball Handler, Real Madrid via Slovenia
While these rankings will generally have a bias towards high-level risk, I see Doncic having the highest floor and a top 2-3 ceiling in the 2018 draft. Given he’s already 6’8”, 228 at just over 19 years of age, with several years of MVP-level performance in the second-best league in the world that traditionally chews up and spits out youth, I have no concerns about Doncic’s ability to produce in the NBA. Doncic is a dog— aggressive with and without the ball, offensively and defensively, which isn’t what you’d expect from such a young player surrounded by veterans in EuroBasket and Liga. His game is such an interesting contrast in styles, combining that assertive mentality with a series of finesse hesitation moves in his toolbox tailor-made for today’s NBA. Moreover, Doncic is all too willing to give the ball up to his teammates with court vision reminiscent of Ricky Rubio or Manu Ginobili (admittedly, this gets him into trouble at times). His innate feel for the game is really impressive. While his 32% clip overseas from deep might not fit the sharpshooting European archetype, there is little reason to believe Doncic’s clean form won’t translate, and though his shot is a little long he should have the physical length to get it off without issue. The only issue I have is conditioning-related, and whether the speed of playoff basketball and modern pace will prove overwhelming for Doncic if he gets sloppy with his training. Given his competitive fire, somehow, I doubt it. Even then, his size and feel should always carry him to starter/role player minutes. I’m all in, and believe Doncic is a no-brainer as the top choice in this draft.
At Best: Manu Ginobili dexterity/toughness * Steve Nash feel/creativity/vision/balance
At Worst: Niko Mirotic * Mike Bibby
2. Trae Young, Guard, Oklahoma
Caveat: in drafting the aptly-named Oklahoma phenom, I’m surrendering to playing the type of free-flowing, pace-oriented game centered on him that unlocks all of his generational (yes, generational) playmaking talents. In submitting to those conditions, I truly have difficulty envisioning a world in which Young isn’t a good player in the modern-day NBA. If you watched the Sooners play last year, you know just how awful Young’s supporting cast was. That he dragged that sorry bunch into the tournament is impressive; to lead the country in both scoring AND assists throughout the majority of the year, particularly given his stature, is a virtual miracle. I don’t concern myself too much with his mortal 36% three-point mark (he shot 86% from the FT stripe; we all know the guy can shoot), or the fact that he showed cracks in the armor when keyed upon later in the season. I dream on the idea that the sky is positively Curry-esque when you put Young next to other legitimate scoring threats, or in pick-and-roll action with polished professionals, or get him free looks off off-ball screens with legitimate ball-handlers alongside. Young is never going to be big (though he’s already put on 10 lbs of muscle in the offseason), and he’s never going to be an asset defensively (though he averaged 1.9 steals per 40), but he was born in the perfect era to bury those weaknesses under a siege of space-clearing three-pointers and franchise-altering offensive initiation. 29 teams could use Young’s game-changing offensive ability; my guess is some half-dozen will rue passing on it.
At Best: Steph Curry/Steve Nash hybrid
At Worst: Jimmer Fredette/White Chocolate hybrid
3. Deandre Ayton, Center, Arizona
Timing is everything. In another era, Ayton would have been next in the long (and tall) lineage of de facto towering top picks. Now? Well, he’s still going #1, but with a lot more questions. None of the NBA’s final four featured an all-league big, and while Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid are unquestioned foundational pieces, it’s fair to wonder whether (a) either will ever be the best player on a champion and (b) Ayton is cut from the same cloth. My hunch is that he’s going to be a very good player, perhaps even a multiple-time all-star, but I have doubts about whether he deserves to be the top pick in a draft with so many potential franchise-changers, especially in a day and age where capable centers have come cheap. Of course, the NBA has traditionally been a big man’s league, and Ayton is going to be a good one. He’s big and strong (and will get bigger and stronger), athletic, quick, can shoot reasonably well (34% from 3 on 35 attempts, 73% from FT and 62.5% eFG), and, perhaps most importantly for a man his size, has a clean bill of health. Defensively, he’s been chastised for a lack of passion, but with his frame and baseline ability, he’ll fall backward into 15 and 10 a night. Perhaps Ayton represents part of the answer to combating today’s perimeter-oriented NBA; a big man that can move well enough to avoid becoming a liability against speedy small-ball lineups in critical minutes, while still providing enough offensive upside to feast upon those teams sacrificing size for speed, shooting and spacing. I just wouldn’t want to be the team rolling the dice on it with #1.
At Best: Joel Embiid without the phenomenal Twitter profile
At Worst: Miniature late-career Dwight Howard
4. Marvin Bagley III, Big Man, Duke
Bagley is 1 inch shorter and 9 lbs lighter than Ayton but is an entirely different player. Despite posting huge numbers for a high-profile team (21 and 11 playing in a lineup with three potential first-round picks), Bagley’s role at the next level remains a mystery due to the lack of nuance in his game. In retrospect, it’s a real testament to Bagley’s indomitable will that he produced the numbers he did, because the jumper is pretty ugly/scattershot (the very solid 40% clip on 58 attempts from deep is betrayed by his 63% from the stripe) and his handle is just average, even for his size. His defense is a major question mark, though not because he’s unwilling. Bagley’s a ball of clay, albeit an incredibly toolsy one. The rebound numbers are not a flash in the pan—Bagley’s athleticism and nose for the ball are very real. Ultimately, you’re drafting him with the idea that he fits the league’s direction, that he can be a runaway 5 who you don’t have to stash on the bench in any situation. You draft him in the hopes that you can utilize the motor to somewhat fix that shot, rein in the dribbling, and capitalize on the athleticism and weak-side ability. You draft Bagley because, in my mind, he could ultimately be the second-best player on a champion. That’s not something you can say about most.
At Best: DeMarcus Cousins
At Worst: Marvin Williams
5. Kevin Knox, Forward, Kentucky
Plain and simple, Knox is tailor-made for today’s NBA. He’s got a league-ready body (6’9”, 213 with a near 7-foot wingspan) and posted rock-solid numbers at Kentucky (19 and 7 with a steal per 40), all while most experts agree he has a long way to go to reach his potential as one of the draft’s youngest players. He shot 34% from long-range, but he has one of the purest shots I’ve seen for a player his size and will absolutely be able to get it off effectively without issue. He’s a willing and long defender with good bounce and, by all accounts, great character. The versatility, frame, and shooting remind me so much of a certain recent multiple-time champion it’s eerie. At worst, I believe he’ll still have a long career as a long three-point specialist.
At Best: Klay Thompson
At Worst: Tobias Harris
6. Michael Porter, Jr., Forward, Missouri
Michael Porter Jr. is the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in this year’s draft.
No one possesses the range of outcomes given the likely high-leverage selection he’ll demand than Porter. How do you reconcile the upside of a superstar (the odds-on favorite to be the top pick at this time last year) with the downside of an out-of-the-league bust with back issues? It doesn’t make it any easier that MPJ has done himself no favors in the public eye leading up to the draft. There’s not much we can glean from his tiny Mizzou sample size, either. You’re going off private workouts, medicals, and film from several years ago. From what we’ve seen, he seems to have an innate ability to score from anywhere, with the size to stay on the court at all times and cause matchup problems. The athleticism is unknown at this stage, but because of his length, you have to assume he’ll get buckets, albeit inefficiently, provided health. Therein lies the rub. This guy either seals a GM’s extension or their pink slip. Still, if a team is in the position to take Porter, they probably aren’t on the cusp of contention. Teams spend unlimited resources and untold years in pursuit of a star. MPJ might just be one.
At Best: Melo Lite
At Worst: Rashard Lewis (today)
7. Mohamed Bamba, Center, Texas
For better or for worse, we’ve never seen a Mo Bamba. The longest recorded wingspan in NBA combine history with freakish speed for his size and a developing shot. What’s not to love? Well… we’ve already talked about the questionable future of low post types in tomorrow’s NBA. Most importantly, Bamba’s body density is what I imagine that of a broom to be. Even in an increasingly-finesse league, Bamba will struggle to stand his ground against the likes of Davis, Embiid, Gobert, DAJ, et al. I’m loathe to judge a player for his body composition before he gets into a professional training regimen, but it’s just tough to envision Bamba ever being the rock in the middle that his skill set demands he be. To his credit, Bamba is working hard to change that narrative, to build out his skill set and realize his vast potential. I always have concerns about big man health, and those apply most directly to Bamba of anyone in this draft. But if he can stay on the court, the floor (as a bankable shot-blocker), ceiling, and desire are all strong enough that Bamba merits the mid-lottery selection he’s likely to be.
At Best: Yao Ming with wheels
At Worst: Sawed-off Manute Bol
8. Wendell Carter, Jr., Center, Duke
I’ll cop to falling for Carter a little bit throughout the draft process. Watching him at Duke was an exercise in boredom, but since that time teammates and coaches have indicated Carter was the sacrificial lamb on Marvin Bagley’s #1 pick trail. Like all big men, my question is whether they can stay on the court against the Warriors. He’s probably never going to be a Kevin Love-esque threat on the perimeter, but a 41% small-sample 3-point shooter was somewhat validated by a 74% FT clip, lending credence to the idea that perhaps Carter could have done more at a program with fewer heavy-usage players around them. In any case, Carter is likely to be on a team where that repeats itself, and he’s already shown he can acquit himself nicely. Carter is not a difficult evaluation—he’s going to get boards (13.5 per 40 min), play very good defense (3 blocks/40) against any big man (and not get embarrassed on pick and rolls by perimeter-oriented players), and serve as a positive reinforcement in the locker room. Can he be the best player on a champion? No. Second-best? Doubtful. Third? The lack of above-average athleticism will catch up to him, but he’s so sound that he might be able to be. At the end of the day, is Carter worth a lottery pick? Yes, but you know what you’re getting. For better or for worse.
At Best: Al Horford with a jump shot
At Worst: Less-explosive Taj Gibson
9. Jaren Jackson, Jr., Center, Michigan State
Offensively, JJJ’s efficiency numbers compare similarly to Carter’s, but his per-game averages pale in comparison. He did shoot around 40% from 3 and 80% from the line, but the shot is just torture to watch. Admittedly, he’s young, but Jackson’s offensive production got worse over the course of the MSU season. You’re drafting Jackson to be a defensive stalwart, which is fine, but I don’t get how a big man who can only play defense merits a pick over others. Much is said about Trae Young needing to be good on offense, but why isn’t the same said about Jackson? Given he’s likely going in the top 5, Jackson has to be good defensively, or show offensive ability he simply hasn’t to date. The raw ability is why I think he merits a top 10 pick, but I cannot believe where he’s going to go given the players available in this draft.
At Best: Tyson Chandler/Clint Capela
At Worst: Boris Diaw
10. Collin Sexton, Point Guard, Alabama
Sexton’s evaluation is pretty simple. You’re not drafting him to be your complimentary distributing point guard or to run a methodical half-court offense. To do so would be to deprive an offense by neutering this preternaturally-talented scoring guard of his finest talents. You take Sexton to allow him the freedom to run the show. Sexton isn’t a technician, he’s a hammer. His game definitely needs some refinement; the assist numbers (3.6) are alarmingly low, and his shot isn’t the prettiest. You can’t do anything about the fact he’s under 6’2”, but you can put some bulk on his lanky frame. Doing so would help add to Sexton’s best quality: fearlessness. He has no hesitation getting to the line, and rebounds particularly well for his size (5 boards/40). Sexton is tough as hell, wants the moment, and more often than not rises to the occasion. He’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but this guy has all the makings of a top-tier point guard given full reign of an offense, and can absolutely be the engine for a champion when surrounded by quality pieces.
At Best: Baron Davis
At Worst: Sebastian Telfair
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11 Mikal Bridges, G/F, Villanova
12 Elie Okobo, G, France
13 Zhaire Smith, G, Texas Tech
14 Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State
15 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
16 Landry Shamet, PG, Wichita State
17 Lonnie Walker IV, G, Miami (FL)
18 Chandler Hutchison, G/F, Boise State
19 Kevin Huerter, G, Maryland
20 Donte DiVincenzo, G, Villanova
21 Mo Wagner, C, Michigan
22 Grayson Allen, G, Duke
23 Troy Brown, G, Oregon
24 Robert Williams, Big, Texas A&M
25 Mitchell Robinson, C, Chalmette (LA)
26 Jalen Brunson, PG, Villanova
27 Bruce Brown, G, Miami (FL)
28 Jevon Carter, G, West Virginia
29 Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
30 Anfernee Simons, G, IMG Academy
31 Dzanan Musa, F, Bosnia
32 Malik Newman, G, Kansas
33 Jacob Evans III, G/F, Cincinnati
34 Omari Spellman, F/C, Villanova
35 Keita Bates-Diop, G/F, Ohio State
36 Gary Trent, Jr., G, Duke
37 Melvin Frazier, G, Memphis
38 Josh Okogie, G, Georgia Tech
39 Khyri Thomas, G, Creighton
40 Devonte Graham, PG, Kansas
Mock Draft
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1. Phoenix Suns – DeAndre Ayton, C, Arizona |
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2. Sacramento Kings – Marvin Bagley III, PF, Duke |
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3. Atlanta Hawks – Luka Doncic, SF, Real Madrid (Spain) |
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4. Memphis Grizzlies – Jaren Jackson, Jr., PF, Michigan State |
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5. Dallas Mavericks – Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas |
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6. Orlando Magic – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky |
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7. Chicago Bulls – Wendell Carter, Jr., PF, Duke |
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8. Cleveland Cavaliers from Brooklyn via BOS – Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma |
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9. New York Knicks – Michael Porter, Jr., PF, Missouri |
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10. Philadelphia Sixers from L.A. Lakers via PHX – Mikal Bridges, SG, Villanova |
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11. Charlotte Hornets – Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama |
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12. Los Angeles Clippers from Detroit – Miles Bridges, SF, Michigan State |
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13. Los Angeles Clippers – Robert Williams, PF, Texas A&M |
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14. Denver Nuggets – Kevin Knox, SF, Kentucky |
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15. Washington Wizards – Mitchell Robinson, C, |
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16. Phoenix Suns from Miami – Zhaire Smith, SG, Texas Tech |
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17. Milwaukee Bucks – Chandler Hutchison, SG, Boise State |
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18. San Antonio Spurs – Elie Okobo, PG, Pau-Orthez (France) |
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19. Atlanta Hawks from Minnesota – Lonnie Walker, SG, Miami (FL) |
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20. Minnesota Timberwolves from Oklahoma City via UTA – Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova |
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21. Utah Jazz – Keita Bates-Diop, SF, Ohio State |
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22. Chicago Bulls from New Orleans – Kevin Huerter, SF, Maryland |
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23. Indiana Pacers – Omari Spellman, PF, Villanova |
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24. Portland Trail Blazers – Troy Brown, Jr., SF, Oregon |
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25. Los Angeles Lakers from Cleveland – Moritz Wagner, PF, Michigan |
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26. Philadelphia Sixers – Dzanan Musa, SG, Cedevita (Croatia) |
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27. Boston Celtics – Grayson Allen, SG, Duke |
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28. Golden State Warriors – De’Anthony Melton, SG, USC |
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29. Brooklyn Nets from Toronto – Anfernee Simons, SG, |
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30. Atlanta Hawks from Houston via LAC – Brandon McCoy, C, UNLV |
