The Red Sox have been feast or famine since 2013. They won in John Farrell’s first year, and finished last in the division the next two years, before winning the division in 2016. They’ve attempted big splashes in free agency, top pitchers, and played younger players as attempts to right the ship. Winning the division was a good start last year, but the Red Sox and their fans have come to expect more since the curse was lifted back in 2004.
Story 1: How does Sale fit in?
How will Chris Sale fit in with the Red Sox?
Sale has been one of the top pitchers in baseball, and arguably the best left-handed pitcher. He’s been able to top 200 innings 3 out of the last 5 years, with 2012 being short by 8 innings. He’s topped 200 strikeouts each of the last 4 years, leading the league with 274 in 2015. He’ll pitch for his second team in his short career, and it will be interesting to see how this trade affects him. The previous two pitchers, David Price and Zach Greinke, were the two big signings before the 2016 season. Their seasons were met with mixed results. Greinke finished with a 13-7 record, with a 4.37 ERA. Price finished with a solid record, 17-9, but with an ERA at 3.99, his record may have been some good fortune. Sale was slightly susceptible to the long ball last year, with 27 given up in 32 starts. Fenway has a short porch in right, and the Green Monster is much less intimidating than it used to be. If Sale tries to live as a fly ball pitcher this year, he may struggle mightily to live up to the big trade. His HR/FB, home run per fly ball, ratio was a little above league average, but well within his averages for his career. He was pitching in a very friendly left-handed pitchers park, and has moved to a much less friendly one. Only time will tell how he’ll fair.
Story 2: How good will the offense be without Papi?
David Ortiz has been a staple of the Boston Red Sox since 2003. Having played a full season for the team every year, with his only seasons under 130 games being in 2008 and 2012. He hit the second most home runs since then, and anchored the Red Sox. The Red Sox scored the most runs in 2016, with a lineup that featured some of the better offensive seasons in baseball. Mookie Betts had one of the better all-around seasons in recent memory, Hanley Ramirez returned to spectacular form, posting a .286 average with 30 HR’s. Xander Bogaerts bounced back nicely, hitting 21 HR’s and hitting a nice .294 average. Even losing David Ortiz’s 38 HR’s and .315 average, the Red Sox have more than enough power and run scoring potential to make up for it. It remains to be seen if Sandoval’s weight loss this offseason actually translates into the Kung Fu Panda of old, but if he can return to something closer to his 2011 – 2013 seasons, he’ll be very valuable in offsetting the loss. The Red Sox should be just fine, assuming that all the players can come close to their numbers last year, or better them.
Story 3: How much better will Betts be?
So far, Mookie Betts in his short career has averaged a .304 average and stepped up his power game from 18 HR in his first full season to 31 in his next. He also made the All-Star team, was the runner-up for the MVP, won a Gold Glove, and the Silver Slugger. Betts’s career is on the cusp of taking off. His initial comparisons according to Baseball Reference consist of some impressive names, including A.J. Pollock, Grady Sizemore, Willie Mays, and Duke Snider. His ZIPS projection says that he’ll hit 24 HRs and .307. If he can continue down this career path, assuming he plays 15 seasons, he’d finish with 360 HR’s, which wouldn’t quite put him in the running for a first ballot HOF vote. However, if he can continue to live closer to 30 HR’s, he’ll have plenty of glory stats. With the advancement of sabermetrics, his case could become much stronger. Betts is one of the better all-around players in the game today. Dave Cameron wrote in a Fangraph article in August 2016, that Mookie Betts’s power charged season was reminiscent of an Adrian Beltre season, or possibly something akin to Robinson Cano’s prime years. If Betts can continue to follow either of those two players, he’s going to have a very good career. Boston may have 2 superstars on their team.
