The Chicago Cubs made cured the woes and created a whole new generation of fans that won’t understand the heartbreak that happened during the 2003 season. They won’t know how important Sammy Sosa was to bringing baseball back to the forefront of America. Kids will hear stories of the “lovable losers,” but they won’t understand how the Cubs got the nickname. Lifelong Cubs fans were skeptical about the rebuild, about the plan, and were rewarded sooner than anyone thought they might. How can the possibly follow up the magic that was the 2016 season?
1st storyline: Is Kyle Schwarber being the leadoff hitter the best option for the Cubs?
Is Kyle Schwarber the Cubs best option as a leadoff hitter?
The departure of Dexter Fowler leaves one of the largest holes to fill in baseball. The Cubs struggled offensively at times when Fowler was injured throughout the year. He provided a consistent pick me up at the top of the lineup with his .393 OBP. He hit a leadoff homerun in Game 7 of the Word Series. He’s been a huge signing for the Cubs during the last two years in their rebuilding process. Now that he’s taken an offer from St. Louis, how do the Cubs address the missing spot in the lineup?
One option: Kyle Schwarber. In his first full year, he played in 69 games, had 273 PA, and had a slash line of .246/.353/.487. His SO/BB ratio was about 2/1, which isn’t ideal for a leadoff hitter. If we extrapolate the number of SO’s into what a full season’s worth of plate appearances, assumed to be 600 PA, he’ll have approximately 170 SO’s.
For comparison, Dexter Fowler had 124 SO in 125 games played last season. So Schwarber’s strikeout totals aren’t necessarily all that different from what the Cubs were accustomed to. In addition, Fangraphs showed Schwarber’s hard hit percentage was about 39% in 2015. The batter most likely to follow him in the order, Kris Bryant, had a hard hit percentage of about 40% last season. So, a season similar to what Bryant had in 2016 is definitely not out of the realm of possibility for Schwarber. If he can manage the same .404 OBP that Bryant did then the Cubs may have created one of the most frustrating, powerful lineups around.
Granted, Schwarber most likely won’t play in 155 games as Bryant did, coming off ACL surgery, but 135-145 seems pretty feasible. Maddon will be able to use the AL games to full advantage as well, keeping Schwarber in the DH spot. Whichever direction the Cubs go, it will be an exciting team offensively to watch.
2nd storyline: How will Jake Arrieta’s most trying season of his career affect his performance?
Jake Arrieta really came out of his shell after the All-Star break in 2015. A long time high ceiling prospect, he started the season fine but became a different animal entirely once July hit. In the second half, he posted an almost unheard of 0.75 ERA over 107 innings. His strikeout rate stayed close to the same between the first and second halves, but his opponent batting average dropped nearly 70 points. He won the Cy Young, then pitched the Cubs into the Divisional Series with a no-hitter against the Pirates.
Of course, then the rumors and questions start flying in the offseason. Are you going to sign an extension? Do you think that you deserve as much money as these other guys have gotten? Every player that has a season like Arrieta did faces scrutiny similar to this.
Arrieta put his name into the upper echelon of pitching names around the league with that season. For comparison, some of the per year values for the top paid pitchers around the league: Greinke – $34M, Price – $31M, Scherzer – $30M, Lester – $26M, Verlander – $25M. The biggest difference is the amount of time these guys have been pitcher at an elite level. Arrieta struggled from 2008 until 2014 to stay at the major league level. He’s had a BB/9 over 3 for a large part of his career, which is one a possible reason for his struggles early on. He actually had one around 3.5 last year, which is a likely reason for his ERA rising to 3.10. Still very good, but not quite the Cy Young level of greatness that Arrieta teased Cubs fans within 2015. All of last year, questions would be poised to Theo Epstein and Jake Arrieta about how close the two sides were to signing an extension. This year, they will revolve around the same point, or if a new contract will be devised.
One of the major points of contention: length of contract. Arrieta last year was looking for a 7-year deal, similar to what other pitchers mentioned above signed. However, the Cubs were reported to be more comfortable signing a 4-year deal in 2016. It would be hard to imagine that either side will really back away from those numbers. Given that this is Arrieta’s last season before his current contract expires, expect there to be plenty of pressure on the Cubs to sign him. However, the possibility of that happening seems unlikely. Signing Arrieta to a 7-year deal would have him pitch for Chicago through his age 38 season. Not many pitchers succeed in their age 38 season, especially power pitchers such as Arrieta.
The issue that really arises is the value at that age. Arrieta would be in line, assuming a deal along the lines of the previous ones, to make approximately $33-35M/year. A comparable pitcher to Arrieta in terms of stuff, AJ Burnett, was able to start 26 games from age 38 and on, going 9-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 164 IP. Those numbers don’t necessarily justify so much money. It remains to be seen how the Cubs and Arrieta handle this season and the distractions, and if a deal can be reached that is agreeable to both sides.
3rd storyline: Can the team repeat?
The crazy thing to think about: the Cubs have been in 2 long postseasons. The starting rotation has been under a lot of stress, and it’s uncommon that a team reaches that deep into the playoffs and wins repeated World Series. The St. Louis Cardinals made it to the NLCS from 2011 to 2014 but were only able to win one World Series. The Red Sox were unable to repeat as well, in both 2004 and 2007, when they were considered one of the better teams in the league. There hasn’t been a repeat winner since 1998-2000 with the dynasty Yankees. It’s incredibly difficult to manage 162 games, deal with injuries, and have consistent play to get to the World Series, much less win it.
The Cubs have one of the deepest teams around, with young players to cover multiple positions. They’re able to cover every infield spot and every outfield spot with players that could possibly be starters on other teams. That is a luxury few teams can boast about. However, their pitching depth is much more suspect; at the time of this article, there are auditions for the 5th starters role in Spring Training. However, if Kyle Hendricks can pitch at a level similar to his near Cy Young levels from 2016, and both Arrieta and Lester can continue their good fortune lately, the pitching staff should perform more than well enough to get the Cubs into the playoffs. From there, the bullpen should be nearly as good, if not better than last year. With a full season to ideally stay healthy, Rondon, Strop, and Wade could be one of the most feared back ends in the playoffs. In addition, Carl Edwards showed that he’s got some incredible talent and can handle the big stage, and could be a key component of the back end of the bullpen.
After 108 years of misery, the Cubs get to start the year with a different kind of expectation. An expectation to repeat, to perform well, and play well. There’s not the pressure to break the curse. There’s not the looming feeling of the curse crushing hopes and dreams again. This year will be exciting, and assuming that players stay healthy, the Chicago Cubs will be the first repeat World Series winners in 16 years.
