The Indians were a little bit of a surprise last year, handling the Red Sox with ease and taking the baseball world’s darlings and favorites at that point, the Cubs, to seven games and one crazy rain delay. Between hitting home runs off a closer who gave up next to none, and surprisingly good starting pitching from unlikely sources, the Indians really came together as a team last year and made some noise. With Andrew Miller for a full year, ideally Michael Brantley back, and the addition of Edwin Encarnacion, they figure to be better this year. Is this the year that the Indians break a drought of their own?
1st storyline: How will the World Series loss affect them?
How much will the team’s 2016 World Series loss impact them?
Three teams in the last 10 years have made it into back to back World Series. The Philadelphia Phillies, the Texas Rangers, and the Kansas City Royals. The Phillies won their first, lost the second. The Ranges lost both bids, and the Kansas City Royals lost their first, and won their second. During the same span, the Giants went on an even numbered year tear, winning in 2010, 2012, and 2014. The thing a lot of these teams have in common, they tended to have rough years either after the World Series win or losing in the World Series. The Giants in their 2011, 2013, and 2015 seasons, had records of 86-76, 76-86, and 84-78. Each year, the Giants missed the playoffs.
The Royals were able to get back after losing to the Giants in 2014 and win the whole thing in 2015. However, their record after this feat was 81-81, also missing the playoffs.
These examples just show that it is extremely difficult to get to back to back World Series and maintain consistent competition throughout the grueling marathon that is a Major League Baseball Season.
The Indians do have a few things going for them, though, and that may help them buck that trend:
1) Their average age of their players in 2016: 28.8. The same as the very team they lost to in the World Series.
2) Two of their best pitchers, Salazar and Carrasco, were not in the rotation for the playoffs.
3) They upgraded their depth and offensive firepower with Edwin Encarnacion (see below).
4) They have Andrew Miller for a full year.
5) Fransico Lindor is a bonafide stud.
6) They took the Cubs to seven games, and it’s somewhat likely that if not for the 10 min rain delay that saved the Cubs, would have won the Series.
7) The AL central looks to be a fairly weak division.
Okay, there are more than a few things that the Indians have going for them. Barring injuries, regressions, and any of the other freak things that can occur during the mayhem that is the regular season, the Indians will be back in October and likely will be looking to end their drought.
2nd storyline: Does the addition of Encarnacion help that much?
The signing of Edwin Encarnacion sent a ringing message across baseball: Fear the Tribe.
Mike Napoli provided some solid production on a budget for the Indians in 2016. He led the team with 34 HR’s but struggled to find a place when it came to games without a DH. Carlos Santana has made a nice transition to first but still doesn’t provide truly consistent offensive production. With 20+ HR power, and a great eye (no less than 91 walks since becoming a full-time player), he’s provides solid offensive value, but not necessarily great defensive value. He came up as a catcher, made a transition to first base, and has even made appearances at third and left field. None of these moves have led to great defensive improvement.
Encarnacion fills in two boxes for the Indians: Power at the dish, and solid defense at first base. Early on in his career with the Reds, Encarnacion definitely struggled defensively. However, since making the move to the AL, and being allowed to play DH for a large number of the games, he’s dramatically cut down on his errors, having only 2 in 75 games. Comparatively, Napoli had 13 errors in 98 games at first, and Santana had 5 in 64 games. Santana and Encarnacion can platoon first base this year, providing similar defense, similar to Napoli’s role with the team last year. The better box Encarnacion fills is his consistent, and more productive, presence at the plate.
Over the last five years, Encarnacion’s had no less than a .263 average, and no fewer than 34 home runs. In addition to this production, he’s been able to maintain an OBP of .350 or above each year. This comes a huge upgrade over Napoli, who’s struggled to keep his average over .250 for a full season (once in 2013) and has only belted 30+ HR’s once in the last 5 years. Napoli manages to take walks and get on base, but his average and other offensive contributions just don’t compare to Encarnacion’s.
Encarnacion changes the dynamic of the Indians lineup and will be a terror throughout the regular season and playoffs for the Tribe.
3rd storyline: Assuming they get back, assuming Salazar and Carrasco are healthy, are they the real favorite?
The Indians started 2016 as 16-1 odds to win the World Series, behind Boston and Toronto, both of whom they beat easily. This year, again they come in at 14-1 odds, again behind Boston.
The biggest issue is that assuming that they both make it back to the playoffs, the Indians should be better set up to go deep in the postseason.
Looking at how well the Indians did with the rotation of Kluber, Bauer, and Tomlin, imagine for a second how intimidating a rotation of Kluber, Salazar, and Carrasco could be. For reference, Salazar and Carrasco both have lower ERA’s and better SO/BB ratios. It’s been shown in the playoffs before, that SO potential can have a huge influence on the opposing team’s offense. In addition, both Salazar and Carrasco provide Francona with guys that can go deeper into games and keep the bullpen fresher. It’s possible that Andrew Miller lost some effectiveness in the plethora of appearances that he made in the playoffs against the Cubs and other teams.
Given that David Price has only really had one great start in the postseason, it’s no guarantee that regular season David Price will be there to help lead the Red Sox. Rick Porcello has had a lackluster career thus far, and in his three postseason starts, he’s struggled to produce a quality start. Chris Sale, the biggest offseason move, has never made a postseason appearance, so it’s unclear how he’ll perform.
Given that Kluber was so dominant in the 2016 postseason, even a regression will likely be better than Price or Porcello. Salazar and Carrasco should be improvements on both Bauer and Tomlin. Time will tell for sure but expect the Indians to again get the better of the Red Sox and the rest of the American League.
