The Dodgers have been making splashes and big leaps for some years now. A group with headliners including Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten purchased the Dodgers in 2012, and since then they’ve spared almost no expense to bring success to LA. Since then, the Dodgers record has been much better. In 2011, they had an 86-76 record and finished second in the NL West. Since then, they’ve won the NL West every year since. They’ve gotten to the NLCS twice; however, they’ve not had the playoff success many thought they would. What does 2017 have in stored?
1st Story: Julio Urias and Corey Seager, what’s next for the future of the Dodgers?
Corey Seager was a highly touted prospect since he first showed up on the scene. He had a very successful minor league career. He had a successful fall call up for the Dodgers in 2015, hitting .337 in 27 games. Then, of course, he won ROY in 2016. His brother Kyle Seager has had a nice career for the Mariners, and the whole time the story was that Corey Seager had the higher upside. After a 1 full season in which he won the ROY and was 3rd in the MVP voting, it’s hard to argue that point.
The real question is, how will Corey Seager follow up that season? His peripherals were pretty solid during his 2016 year. He had a 7.9% BB rate (BB/PA) and a 19.4% K rate (K/PA), and had a .41 BB/K ratio. He also had a 32.2% swing rate outside the zone. Already, he’s dropped that down to 25.9% so far in the early season. He’s already improved on his Hard Hit %, however, he’s getting hard contact at 50%, which is likely to go down. If he can keep it near the 39% he had in 2016 and improve upon it, he’ll definitely build upon a great start to his career.
Julio Urias has one of the most promising young arms in the majors. With a low to mid 90’s fastball, and a slider, curveball, and change up combination, he’s very reminiscent of a different Dodgers lefty. He’s been able to sport a 9+ K/9 since he’s been pitching in the minors and majors. His walk rate has been rather high, which has reduced his ability to pitch deep into games so far. If he can reduce his walk rate and pitch deeper into games, he’ll dramatically improve his value to the Dodgers. He had a very successful rookie campaign and looks to make his improvements, build upon his experience, and round out the Dodgers rotation that’s currently needing him desperately.
2nd Story: If Rich Hill and Clayton Kershaw are healthy the whole year, what will that mean?
It doesn’t take much to explain how valuable that Clayton Kershaw is to the Dodgers. Since 2013, in any season that Kershaw has made 30+ starts, he has reached at least 13 wins. Every season after his rookie season, he’s had less than a 3.00 ERA. In terms of workhorse ability, in any season with 30+ starts, he’s pitched over 200 innings. Needless to say, Kershaw has been one of the best pitchers for the last decade. Any time he’s out of the rotation, the Dodgers clearly miss him. Right now, through 5 starts, he’s 4-1, and he’s well on his way to carrying the Dodgers into the playoffs again.
Rich Hill, when available, has been one of the better #2 starters. He went 12-5 in 20 starts in 2016, and was able to get swings and misses on 25% of his pitches outside of the zone. If he’s able to replicate his performance that was in 2016, he’ll have a great chance to support Kershaw. He’s had some incredibly annoying blister issues, but if he’s able to figure out the main issue, he’ll be able to throw that incredible curveball.
3rd Story: Will they be able to hit left-handed pitching?
From Baseball-Reference, the total average of the MLB against LHP was .256. As a comparison, the Dodgers as a team hit .214 against LHP. They were able to hit .264 against right-handed batters, which was above the .255 average against RHP.
It doesn’t look like the team will have success against LHP again this year. Adrian Gonzalez carries a career .271 AVG, Justin Turner a .251 AVG, and Either has a career .234 AVG. The team is led by a group of young players as well who have not hit LHP well to date. Joc Pederson hasn’t had a high batting average since he arrived in the big leagues, but he’s been below the Mendoza line against lefties, a rough .186 AVG. Corey Seager, who is definitely the future of the Dodgers, also hasn’t had nearly the same success against LHP as he’s had against RHP. To date, he’s hitting .339 against RHP, while he’s struggled with a .256 AVG against LHP.
It’s unlikely that they won’t be able to easily correct their troubles against lefties. The silver lining is that the Dodgers have some of the best left-handed pitchers in the National League, so at least they won’t see Clayton Kershaw.
