The Mets have, for the last few years, had one of the most dynamic pitching staffs in recent years. However, the staff has never been able to make it through a full season together. The farm system hasn’t quite produced a proven position player since David Wright, who’s had a history of injuries. The Mets are two years removed from being in the World Series, after years of struggling to maintain .500 baseball. With the season starting so rough, are they going to be able to climb out of this hole?
1st Story: Can the Mets handle the injuries?
The level of pitchers that the Mets will have to endure this year is quite alarming. Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Jeurys Familia have all been out for at least 10 days, with Syndergaard and Familia out for at least a few months, if not the whole year. In addition to this, the Mets are dealing with injuries to many position players, including David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes. While injuries are generally not an acceptable excuse, these types of injuries hamper a team from reaching their full potential. Syndergaard has made 60 starts in his young career and has 24 wins, 361 IP, and 416 SO’s. That kind of production is generally not replaced easily.
Wright has always had an injury history, and his absence will definitely have an impact. They’ve been able to cover his missing offense, but his leadership will be missed regardless. Cespedes is having a very good year to start, with 6 HR and a .270 BA in 18 games, when he returns from the DL and can maintain that type of production he’ll provide a boost to an already powerful offense.
2nd Story: Will Tim Tebow make an appearance in September?
What’s going on with Tim Tebow?
Granted, this would likely be a ploy to bring people to the ball park. Come September, if the Mets are still struggling to be around .500, it would not be a terrible idea to bring Tebow to the Major League team to see if he’d actually stand a chance in the Majors.
Currently, Tebow is hitting .230 with 3 HRs with the Mets Single-A affiliate. He’s been able to maintain a .319 OBP despite this low average, which is encouraging to see. The limited advanced stats show that Tebow’s really been able to either pull the ball or hit the ball to the opposite field. While this is not inherently bad, it infers an inability to properly time the ball from the pitcher. Without this, Tebow will struggle to maintain a high enough batting average to warrant a call-up. Tebow’s other major flaw is that he hits far too many ground balls. At 65.8%, it’s a very large percentage that will cause struggles to continue.
If Tebow is able to remedy these issues and is able to capitalize on his natural athleticism, there’s a chance that Tebow is able to have a moderately successful career.
3rd Story: Can their power sustain them again?
The Mets had the 5th most HR’s in 2016, and those accounted for 51% of their runs, according to a CBS report. There was a time when this sort of production would have been regarded as risky. However, the game has shifted to accept the high strikeout rates that accompany these high power numbers. The Mets also finished 2016 with the highest Hard Hit % in baseball, which likely will translate to 2017 as well. As previously mentioned, the Mets have been struggling with injuries so far in 2017, but are still hitting HRs at a great pace. If the Mets can hit the ball over the fence at this rate, they’ll end the season with approximately 223 HRs.
Unfortunately, HR’s are not necessarily an indicator of playoff success. In 2015, only half of the teams that made the playoffs were in the top ten in HR’s. In 2016, it again was half of the teams. It will be interesting to see if the Mets are able break into the playoffs if this power game is the only component of the team that’s able to be in the top ten.
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