TIER 2: PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
(10) New York Knicks
It’s only a matter of time before the Knicks move on from Carmelo Anthony.
Actual record last year: 31-51 (-3.7 point differential)
Record should have been
Both Derrick Rose and Kristaps Porzingis missed 10+ games last year, but it’s hard to call that “unfortunate” — we probably would have pegged Rose at 60 games anyway. In terms of point differential, this team may have been slightly better than 31-51, but we’re only talking 32-33 wins or so.
Impact adds
SG Tim Hardaway Jr., Frank Ntilikina (R)
Impact losses
PG Derrick Rose, SF Justin Holiday, (SF Carmelo Anthony?)
Predicted win-loss total
It’s safe to presume that Carmelo Anthony’s days in a Knicks uniform will be winding down. Local fans and media may hail that, but there’s no denying it’ll mean a temporary setback — hate him all you want, Melo is still a professional scorer and net positive.
Tim Hardaway Jr. can provide some of that scoring back, as should more opportunity and more touches for Porzingis. I’m most bullish on their offensive potential minus Phil Jackson watching their every move and trying to force the Triangle down their throats.
Whether or not the Knicks can actually contend for the playoffs may hinge on what they do at point guard. Frank Ntilikina may have a bright future, but he’s not nearly ready for prime time. If he starts, he’d be the worst starting point guard in the league by a mile. This record presumes that they’ll realize that and sign a stopgap, beit Rose in a return or someone like Rajon Rondo. record: 34-48
(9) Philadelphia 76ers
Actual record last year: 28-54 (-5.7 point differential)
Record should have been
The Sixers picked up quite a few wins on the back of Joel Embiid. An optimist could say that if Embiid actually played the full season (as opposed to 31 games) this team may have won 35 games last year.
However, I don’t believe you can count on any scenario where Embiid suits up for 80 games so that record — 28 or 30 wins maybe — is about where they should have been given their talent last year.
Impact adds
PG Markelle Fultz (R), PF Ben Simmons (R), SG J.J. Redick
iImpact losses
PG Sergio Rodriguez, SG Gerald Henderson
Predicted win-loss total
For these purposes, I’ll count Ben Simmons as an “add” as well, because he’ll be adding a new dimension to their team that we haven’t seen on the court before. Combined with Markelle Fultz and Embiid, and you can legitimately say that the Sixers are right up there with the best young cores in the league. Given that, I understand the optimism of Sixers’ fans — it’s warranted.
I would caution that they may be too optimistic on the timeline though. Fultz is 19 — Simmons is 20. To expect them to be “good players” (based on actual impact) right away is asking a lot. Even top picks like Brandon Ingram and Buddy Hield charted as some of the worst rotational players in the league. If Fultz and Simmons can be “average” right away, then that will be a great sign for their futures.
I suspect they’ll even be better than that — they’re both obscenely productive in college and have NBA-ready bodies. The concern with both have been regarding their offensive fit and whether either will be good shooters out of the gate, but I’d be more concerned short-term about their defense. Talent doesn’t equate to defensive skill right away — just look at Minnesota’s stars Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, both of whom chart as disasters on D. Fultz and Simmons showed some bad defensive habits in college, so we may see a steep learning curve on that end in the pros.
Simply put, it’s going to take some time for this team to gel. Their overwhelming talent will lead to some wins, but the complete process won’t happen overnight. record: 39-43.
(8) Detroit Pistons
Actual record last year: 37-45 (-1.1 point differential)
Record should have been
The Pistons were among the most disappointing teams in the league last year, backsliding from 44-38 to 37-45 and casting doubts about Stan Van Gundy and the entire operation.
There are signs that the 37-45 record may have been an underachievement for their talent level. Reggie Jackson missed 30 games, and never found his footing upon his return. If Jackson had been healthy all year long, this team most likely would have been near .500.
Impact adds
SG Avery Bradley, SG Luke Kennard (R), SG Langston Galloway
Impact losses
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, PF Marcus Morris
Predicted win-loss total
Avery Bradley lacks the size of a pure SG, but he can still contribute as a 3-and-D player in the same way that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope did.
It’s still up in the air whether the team wants to keep Reggie Jackson or not, given all the guards they’ve been collecting on the side. If Jackson and Bradley were the starting backcourt, you’d worry about their combined size at 6’3″ and 6’2″, respectively. However, they’re both blessed with enormous wingspans — listed at 7’0″ a piece. Given that, they should be able to hang defensively as well.
Overall, I’m not sure what to expect from SVG’s latest unit. It’s a little bit of a hodgepodge right now. But still, there are enough young veterans on this team that are further along in their development than Philly’s, so I’d give the Pistons a slight edge right now. record: 41-41.
(7) Miami Heat
Actual record last year: 41-41 (+1.1 point differential)
Record should have been
Miami fans may point to the 30-11 finish and claim this was one of the best teams in the East. Statisticians counter that it doesn’t really work like that. A 41-41 team that finished that hot usually equates to a team that’s… 41-41.
I think we can presume last year’s Miami Heat team was truly better than that, especially if you account for missed time from Dion Waiters. 44-45 wins may have been their appropriate level based on last year.
Impact adds
C Kelly Olynyk, PF Bam Adebayo (R)
Impact losses
PF Josh McRoberts
Predicted win-loss total
Your optimism about the Miami Heat may equate to your optimism about Dion Waiters. Personally, I’m a skeptic. I’ve written that he’s a massive regression candidate that’s more of a sub than a true starter in the NBA.
I genuinely do believe in James Johnson (in the short-term) and Erik Spoelstra, but overall I was underwhelmed with Miami’s summer. That hot finish may have boosted expectations too high; in my mind, this is still an “above-average” team at best. record: 42-40
(6) Charlotte Hornets
Actual record last year: 36-46 (+0.2 point differential)
Record should have been
There are many signs that the Charlotte Hornets should have been better than their record last year. This is a team that had been 48-34 (same record as Boston) the year prior. Even this season, they finished with a positive point differential. If Cody Zeller hadn’t missed 20 games, a .500 record would have been easily expected.
Impact adds
C Dwight Howard, SG Malik Monk (R)
Impact losses
C Miles Plumlee, SG Marco Belinelli
Predicted win-loss total
I can reference a previous post here, where I explain why I’m a fan of Charlotte’s summer. Dwight Howard is still a good starting center in the league and should be a big boon to their rotation. That, coupled with natural regression (“upwards”, in their case) makes me feel confident that this is a true playoff team. record: 43-39
Full Series – Eastern Conference: Tier 3, Tier 2, Tier 1
