Here’s my best guess for every quasi-possible candidate. The individual odds are based on the idea that the Warriors very good chance to win the series.
LeBron James, Cleveland
If Cleveland somehow came back to win, it’s hard to see anyone other than LeBron winning the MVP.
He’ll win if… It’d be very difficult to imagine a circumstance where LeBron James does not win the MVP if the Cleveland Cavaliers win the series. He’ll simply rack up too many stats. I can see it possibly happening if he shoots VERY poorly, perhaps a sub 44%, which could open the door for Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love. But essentially: if they win, he wins.
chances : 30%
Steph Curry, Golden State
He’ll win if… Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant have a better chance to win the series as a whole, but the fact that they’d battle each other for MVP makes their odds slightly worse than LeBron’s, in my mind. It could come down to which of the two scores more points. Stephen Curry averaged more in the regular season (25.3 to 25.1) and has opened up that spread in the postseason (28.6 to 25.2), leading me to believe he’s the more likely of the two.
chances: 26%
Kevin Durant, Golden State
He’ll win if… Similarly, Durant needs Golden State to win, but for him to also outplay Curry. Raw points are the easiest way to explain that, so he’s going to have to verge on 30 points per game to get the job done. His defense and rebounding may be more crucial than Curry’s, but voters tend to gravitate towards points.
chances : 24%
Draymond Green, Golden State
He’ll win if… The opportunity for Draymond Green to shine as the X-factor is twofold. The Cavs will probably leave him open quite a bit. If he can convert on those open threes as he’s been doing in the playoffs, that’ll give him a chance. He’ll also have to be a clear defensive factor in terms of limiting LeBron. Essentially, this is the formula that Andre Iguodala utilized to win the MVP two years ago.
chances : 5%
Klay Thompson, Golden State
He’ll win if… It’s unlikely that Klay Thompson can outscore Curry and Durant, but there’s an outside shot that he shines more brightly if he absolutely catches fire from three. He’ll need to flirt with the NBA Finals record for threes, but that could be hard since Curry set that with 28 in a 7-game series and this may not go 7. But if Klay can shoot something outrageous like 66%+ from three, and have a signature game with 40+, then he opens the door for an upset.
chances 5%
Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
He’ll win if… Kyrie Irving actually neared LeBron James in terms of scoring this regular season (LeBron with 26.4 to Kyrie’s 25.2), but I don’t think it’s as simple as “outscore LeBron.” LeBron simply adds too many other aspects to the game that can outweigh the scoring — not to mention his defacto role as team leader. For Kyrie to win over LeBron, he’d need to severely outscore him, perhaps by 5+ per game.
chances : 4%
Kevin Love, Cleveland
He’ll win if… Kevin Love’s playing well, but it’ll be tough for him to vault past LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. To do it, he’ll really need to dominate the glass. If LeBron shoots poorly and Kevin Love averages something like 20-12, he can have a slight chance at it. It would really help his candidacy if the series hinges on something he does — for example, if the team goes small and commits to Love at C and that turns the tide.
chances : 2.5%
Andre Iguodala, Golden State
He’ll win if… The template is already laid out for Igudoala: defend LeBron well and hit your open threes. Even if that’s the case this year, it could be hard for Iggy to win again. He’d also need Curry and Durant to play below their average standards. Not to mention, Iggy hasn’t been shooting well this postseason.
chances : 1%
Tristan Thompson, Cleveland
He’ll win if… Like Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson’s modest chances hinge on his rebounding effort. He’ll need to average close to 15 a game to really make himself a viable candidate. If he does, it may open himself up for a narrative: the Cavs won because they won the rebounding battle, and they won the rebounding battle because of Tristan Thompson, etc. It’s unlikely, of course, but not absurd.
chances : 0.5%
J.R. Smith, Cleveland
He’ll win if… Basically he’ll need the 2013 Danny Green series where he catches fire from three and doesn’t let up (like Green did towards the end of that Finals). It’d also be key for him to have at least one 30+ point game in there, because otherwise the default will still be a superstar. Kyle Korver can also utilize this path, but given his limited minutes it’s an even more absurd fantasy.
chances : 0.5%
JaVale McGee!, Golden State
He’ll win if… Yes, I’m including Big JaVale McGee in the “quasi-possible” category. His candidacy would have to be similar to Tristan Thompson’s — bursting into the series like gangbusters, making 90% of his shots and grabbing 12+ rebounds a game. As with Thompson and Love, he’ll need a good narrative to make it happen. If the Warriors are struggling, maybe down 2-1, and they suddenly unleash McGee with 30+ minutes a game and that one moves turns the whole momentum, then you can see that argument. Obviously, it’s extremely far-fetched.
chances : 0.1%
