Free agency is fast approaching and we’re already started to duck and cover as Woj Bombs go off all around us. Still, despite the chaos, we’re going to keep soldiering a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents.
PAUL MILLSAP
The player you’re getting
Despite stellar stats at Louisiana Tech (19.6 points, 13.3 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 2.3 blocks per game as a junior), no one could have expected PF Paul Millsap to have become as great of an NBA player as he has. Drafted only #47, the expectation was that he was a try-hard, undersized rebounder who may be a solid rotational player in the league.
Clearly, Millsap has worked hard to become so much more than that. In 7 years with Utah and the last 4 with Atlanta, he’s become of the best power forwards in the game. He contributes in the ways you may expect: with averages of 17.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists over the last two years. While he’s not a great shooter (sub 32% from three each of the last two seasons), he still spreads the floor for you.
But perhaps Millsap’s best qualities are on the defensive end. He has good footwork and versatility, allowing him to be effective inside and out. The raw stats bear that out (averaging 1.5+ steals and 1.0+ blocks for Atlanta) but the advanced stats do as well. ESPN’s real plus/minus charts his defensive impact as a +3.35, a top 6 mark for his position (making him the #3 power forward overall, behind Draymond Green and Kevin Love).
The contract he’s getting
There’s only one number at the stat page holding Paul Millsap back: “32.” That’s his current age. So while we always hear talk about “Will Toronto pay Kyle Lowry the max?” or “Will Atlanta pay Paul Millsap the max?” I don’t know how close that actually is to coming into fruition. You’d be hard pressed to find a general manager who’s going to be enthusiastic about paying a max to any player, even an All-Star, past the age of 34 or 35.
Surely, if you could pay Millsap on a year-to-year deal, a max and $30+ million a year is justified. However, when you factor in that he’s 32, you start to get wary about giving him anything more than a 3-year deal guaranteed. I imagine Millsap will be offered some 4-year deals this summer, but teams that do that should go into it with the understanding that you’re going to be overpaying him on the back half of that deal.
The best fits
(3) Houston Rockets
On the surface, the Houston Rockets don’t have the cap space to offer Paul Millsap anything close to his market value. At the same time, there’s nothing that I’m going to rule out from GM Daryl Morey. The team may be able to clean out some space with Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson and make someone like Millsap that third piece of the puzzle that they’re looking for.
Millsap may not be Paul George, but he fits in well with this new-look Houston roster as well. Last season, Mike D’Antoni‘s offense hummed with a shooter like Ryan Anderson at the 4 spot, but Anderson’s limitations on defense were always going to hold the team back to some degree. Millsap isn’t nearly the shooter than Anderson is, but he’s a big upgrade on the defensive end. You could throw him out against Golden State’s forwards like Kevin Durant and Draymond Green for heavy minutes without slowing you down.
How good could this Rockets team be if they had Chris Paul + James Harden + Trevor Ariza + Paul Millsap + Clint Capela? Dangerously good. You’d stick put Golden State as the heavy favorites, but Houston would become the favorites to meet them in the Western Conference Finals.
(2) Atlanta Hawks
It’s difficult to tell exactly what the Atlanta Hawks have in mind right now. They let Al Horford walk, and traded Dwight Howard for a very questionable return. Presumably, they’re heading straight into a rebuilding situation.
However, I’m not sure that’s this organization’s style. Thanks to coach Mike Budenholzer, the Hawks have the second-longest active playoff streak in the league. Given their fickle fan base, they may want to keep that momentum going and keep a winning product on the court. Moreover, there’s not “elite” young talent on this team right now. I like Taurean Prince and John Collins, but you wouldn’t call them franchise cornerstones.
If the team decided to bring Millsap back, they’d be able to fight for the playoffs again. Millsap could cement his legacy as one of the better players in franchise history, with the team (and the paint) all to himself without Dwight Howard around. If Millsap’s only goal is winning the title, then this fit doesn’t make much sense. But in terms of his comfort level, his statistics, and his financial future, staying in Atlanta does have its appeal.
(1) Denver Nuggets
I’m cribbing some of this from my section about Serge Ibaka, but a lot of the same logic applies here with Paul Millsap. As we approach free agency, we’re starting to realize how few teams out there actually have the cap space to make waves for some of these star players. The Denver Nuggets, with only $57 owed on their books so far, will be a major player for almost all of them.
In terms of fit, the Nuggets and Paul Millsap make some sense as well. The team’s cooled off on Kenneth Faried, who doesn’t offer much aid to a pace and space era of basketball. Ideally, you’d want to pair Nikola Jokic with a better shooter and rangier athlete. Millsap may be a little overrated as a three-point shooter, but he does offer some spacing, and that excellent defense to boot. Mike Malone and his Nuggets are on the verge of the playoffs right now, and one more piece may put them over the top.
