We’re going to keep trying a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents and give my personal and amateur opinions about the best situations for them. Next up is one of my favorite players in the free agent class:
NERLENS NOEL
The player you’re getting
A consensus top 3 prospect in high school, Nerlens Noel looked well on his way to being a possible #1 pick in his first year at Kentucky. He didn’t display nearly the amount of offensive skill as their super-prospect from the previous year, Anthony Davis, but he did flash the same type of agility and defensive potential.
A season-ending injury had his stock falling, all the way down to New Orleans at #6. The Pelicans (with Davis already in tow) traded him to Philadelphia. With the Sixers, Noel never quite fit into the “Process.” He struggled to stay on the court, both in terms of playing time and durability issues. The team ended up trading him to Dallas this year for 60 cents on the dollar.
Despite that, Noel will be a hot name in (restricted) free agency. Still only 23 years old, he has a world of potential on the defensive end. His agility and fluidity for his 6’11” size is extremely rare. He can block shots, and utilize his quick hands to snatch steals. He’s one of the few players in the league with a career average of 2.0 blocks AND 2.0 steals per 36 minutes. His offensive game consists of offensive rebounding and rim-running, but that’s fairly common for a center these days. Effectively, you’re getting Tyson Chandler in his prime here on the court.
Now, there are some concerns off the court, where Noel hasn’t shown that same leadership and work ethic that Chandler did. It does worry you that his new team Dallas didn’t even give him 20 minutes a game after the trade — either they were worried about showcasing him prior to free agency, or he struggled to pick up the system.
The contract he’s getting
Teams may be hesitant to offer Noel a huge contract, but only because of his situation. He’s a restricted free agent for a team in Dallas that has plenty of cap room to spare. The Mavericks should be able to match any offer, so it’s unlikely that you’d be able to pry him away.
Personally, I’d try anyway. Noel is an ideal defensive-minded center in today’s NBA, about to enter his prime years. 4 years and $20+ million a year is not as ridiculous as it sounds; he’s not a superstar, but his skill set is that rare.
The best fits
(3) Boston Celtics
Boston may have their sights set elsewhere with the Gordon Haywards of the world, but Nerlens Noel would be a nice consolation prize. More than anything, the Celtics struggled with an undersized roster. The average height, per minute, was under 6’6″, several inches shorter than their rivals like Cleveland.
Adding a big fluid shot-blocker like Nerlens Noel would help their rotation quite a bit. Now, with the Celtics, Noel wouldn’t jump into a starting role and a surefire 35 minutes a night. There will be plenty of time when Brad Stevens wants to play smaller with Al Horford at C. However, adding Noel would give the team more flexibility in certain matchups and a paint presence when necessary. He also doesn’t need the ball on offense, which would allow Isaiah Thomas (and Markelle Fultz) more opportunities to shine. Noel can help their current core try to “win now,” but also fits in well with the “win later” core of Fultz and Jaylen Brown.
It’s not a dream fit, for the reasons mentioned, but it’s a fit that makes some sense.
(2) Los Angeles Lakers
Like the Celtics, the Lakers are going into this summer with higher hopes than this. Maybe they can swing a Paul George trade. If not, maybe they should just save all their money for 2018, when Paul George (and Russell Westbrook, and DeMarcus Cousins) will become available as free agents.
Still, “waiting” is a dangerous game to play. There’s no guarantee that Paul George is sitting around the parking lot, waiting to enter the building next summer. And if he is a sure add next season, the team can always shift some salaries around or even use the stretch clause to make the money work.
Spending big money on Nerlens Noel isn’t like spending big money on Timo Mozgov or Luol Deng — he actually fits in with their plans in the long-term. In fact, Noel would be a dream fit for this young Lakers roster. Ivica Zubac flashed potential, but Noel has more upside. He’d be a great complement to fellow Wildcat Julius Randle, who’s a little too short and stocky to be a true rim protector. Offensively, Noel can do his best Tyson Chandler/Tristan Thompson impression, and allow his ball-dominant teammates to shine.
The Lakers may want a ready-made star like George, but perhaps staying young is the prudent pay. A lineup of D’Angelo Russell, Lonzo Ball/Josh Jackson, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, and Nerlens Noel is well-balanced on both ends of the floor and can grow together into a real contender.
Keep in mind, the Lakers will lose their draft pick next year, so adding a young veteran like Noel won’t hurt them in terms of their draft status either.
(1) Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks traded for Noel for a reason, and presumably with the expectation that they’d match any offer for him. I happen to think it’s a good long-term fit, for both sides.
If Noel does have some character concerns, then an organization like Dallas is a great place for him. You have a top notch franchise and a world-class coach in place, not to mention vets like Dirk Nowitzki helping Noel to be a true pro. They have the environment to develop him, on and off the court. Hopefully, on the court, he can be their next version of Tyson Chandler, as mentioned. Rick Carlisle knows how to get the most from centers like Noel — he’s done it effectively from everyone from Chandler to Brandan Wright.
A young core of Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel isn’t quite contender ready, but it’s only one piece away. Barnes can be your #2, and Noel can be your #3 and defensive leader. If the Mavs manage to find a way to land a star guard, they’ll have a triumvirate that can lead them into the next decade.
