New potential lottery picks burst onto the spotlight all the time. In the span of 2 years or less, players like last year’s top pick Markelle Fultz can go from having one scholarship offer as a junior in high school to being the #1 pick. Luka Doncic, the most coveted prospect in the 2018 NBA Draft, has certainly broken that mold.
The 6’8” Real Madrid guard has been playing at the highest level internationally in the Euroleague since the very early age of 16. Just turning 18 in February, Luka’s dominance in the second best basketball league has been incredible for his age. As one of the most important players on one of the best teams in Euroleague, Doncic has been very efficient averaging 15.7 points, 37.1 percent from 3 and 84.4 percent from the free throw line per 40 minutes of play. Doncic ended last season ranked 3rd in the entire Euroleague in PIR (the Euroleague version of PER) per 40 minutes – a great feat for any player, and unprecedented for a budding 17-year-old. On Real Madrid’s way to a 26-10 record, Luka flashed his incredible all around game, especially his brilliant passing skill and strength as a wing or interior defender.
Even as a wet behind the ears 17-year-old, the de facto leader of the Real Madrid squad flashed a high powered offensive game and made himself into an impactful defender last year. Doncic truly belongs as a point guard, where he can utilize his otherworldly passing ability and floor stretching outside shot. As a floor general, Doncic works excellently in the pick and roll as a facilitator, averaging 8.5 assists per 40 minutes thanks to his superb court vision and effort to get his teammates open looks. The young man has certainly improved his facilitating skills this past year, being the youngest player in ACB history to record a double-double, during his commanding 23 point, 11 assist performance against Fuenlabrada. To go along with his passing, year over year Doncic has consistently improved his 3-point shot to make him a viable outside threat. This past year his 3 point percentage rose from 31% last season to 37% this season as he increased from 2.7 to 3 attempts per game.
Sadly, no prospect is perfect and the Slovenian teenager is no exception. While Doncic has elite size and strength, he lacks a degree of explosiveness and speed to his game. Doncic is a much more methodical, disciplined combo guard in contrast to the fast paced offensive games of 2017 guard prospects Dennis Smith Jr. and De‘Aaron Fox. On a spectrum of the high skill, low athleticism play of Steph Curry to the explosive, fast paced play of Andrew Wiggins, he is much closer to the side of the Davidson alumni. To go along with his finesse over explosiveness game, Doncic’s jumper is slower than most would like. At times his shot is rushed or altered, because of how long he takes to get centered and release the ball. If he is given the space to take a comfortable shot he is very efficient but has struggled with contact and pressure shooting.
Doncic is stuck in a very interesting spot as a defender, because of his size and slower lateral quickness. For the past two years in Europe, Luka has attempted to defend small forwards and power forwards, who he can matched up better physically with and make a difference. At times, he has struggled defending smaller, rush point guards who can expose his slower lateral quickness. While he can’t quite defend every position on the floor like LeBron, he is a solid wing and interior defender, thanks to his size and vision. In Real Madrid’s 142-137 preseason win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in October of 2016, Doncic looked very capable matching up with larger 3s and 4s on the wing, as he put in a strong defensive performance
Going into next year’s very strong lottery, Luka Doncic finds the rare balance between outstanding potential and current dominance in a league crowded with guys like Anthony Randolph, Jeff Taylor and Gustavo Ayton, all capable former NBA players who didn’t hold a candle to the Real Madrid superstar. Are the whispers true? Is Doncic the next LeBron? Of course not. LeBron is the most physically gifted player the NBA has possibly ever seen, but even LeBron in high school wasn’t dominating nearly as high of a level competition as Doncic has for two years. Start selling off your season tickets for next year people, the race for the most accomplished prospect since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is heating up.
Let the tanking begin!
