College freshmen Marvin Bagley and Michael Porter couldn’t get through their first week without injury, but both still look like elite top 3 talent. Luka Doncic is a Reddit darling and a super prospect himself. Along with some interesting centers like DeAndre Ayton, Jaren Jackson, and Mohamed Bamba, there appears to be significant value in a top 3/5 pick this year.
Of course, some fanbases would answer “Way ahead of you, buddy.” Dallas (2-13), Atlanta (2-12), Chicago (2-9), Sacramento (3-10) and Phoenix (5-10) appear to be comfortable racking up some losses. Other teams — like the Nets and Lakers — don’t own their pick so it wouldn’t matter.
But my question is more about those middling teams that are stuck in between. Should they keep pushing? Or switch into “tank” mode now? Among them (in alphabetical order):
Charlotte Hornets, 5-7 (-1.5 point differential)
The Hornets aren’t a bad team, but they need a cornerstone talent to build around.
Dwight Howard‘s played well, but that hasn’t changed the Hornets’ fate as one of the most forgotten teams in the league. I still think they can make a playoff push (and predicted they would, preseason) with Nic Batum, but there’s an argument you can make that this is a franchise that needs an elite talent to build around.
Indiana Pacers, 6-8 (-1.1 point differential)
Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis have played well enough to justify that mocked Paul George trade, but this Pacers unit still isn’t chocked full of talent right now. Perhaps the return of Myles Turner will make a meaningful difference, but even still, we’re talking about a likely R1 exit.
L.A. Clippers, 5-8 (+1.2 point differential)
The Clippers — finally, “Blake Griffin‘s team” again — got off to a hot start, but have flopped lately for a 6 game losing streak. Injuries have set in, and may keep cropping up in the future with a brittle team like this. I suppose the Clips should keep pushing as long as Griffin’s healthy because they’re better than their record, but this franchise won’t get many chances to have a top 10 pick again over the life of his giant contract.
Miami Heat, 6-7 (-1.2 point differential)
Personally, I never thought Miami’s red-hot finish (or Dion Waiters‘ red-hot shooting) from last season would carry over directly to this year, and it hasn’t so far. The team’s still “solid” and capable of a playoff run, but not much more than a R1 appearance. Do they need a signature young star to really make a tangible leap forward?
New York Knicks, 7-6 (+1.1 point differential)
Kristaps Porzingis has transformed from a unicorn into a dragon, as the entire Knicks roster has played well given their expectations this season. The playoffs are a realistic goal, and would be a boon to an exhausted and weary fan base. Of course, adding another premier talent like Luka Donic to Porzingis and Frank Ntilikina would change the long-term “upside” of this young core.
Utah Jazz, 6-8 (-2.0 point differential)
Many of us expected the Jazz to keep up their playoff-caliber play thanks to their culture alone, but that looks unlikely at the moment. C Rudy Gobert‘s hurt, and rookie Donovan Mitchell still looks too erratic for prime time. The collection of talent and depth is still there to hang around .500, but I’m not sure how much higher this team’s upside truly is.
Overall
I can see an argument for, or against, all these teams leaping headfirst into tanking mode, so I’d be curious about what you think. Which teams should keep fighting? And which teams should consider throwing in the towel?
