Todd Bowles and the Jets are off to a solid start.
Before the season, I isolated eight head coaches that could qualify as being on the “hot seat,” and wrote profiles about them, their expectations, and their odds of surviving into next season (according to my amateur opinion.)
Now that we’re a quarter way through the year, it could be a good time to update those odds (keep in mind, these odds are of them surviving, not getting fired). Let’s take a look at them, in alphabetical order.
Todd Bowles, New York Jets
Preseason expectations
Of all the coaches, I gave third-year coach Todd Bowles the worst chance of surviving into 2018. I thought 6-10 would be the benchmark he’d need to ensure his job (keep in mind, these marks don’t necessarily mean they’d be fired if they went “under,” but instead that they’d be safe if they hit that bar.) However, given the talent base, the concerns about the passing offense, and a general sense that the Jets were preparing to clean house, I only gave him a 30% chance of sticking around.
Results so far
Off to a 2-2 start (-17 point differential), the Jets are playing better than most of us expected them, too. In fact, some folks didn’t think they’d hit 2 wins all season long.
Updated chances
Despite the promising mark, I wouldn’t tell Todd Bowles to invest in real estate on the market yet. This is still a team that lacks offensive talent, so it wouldn’t be out of the question for them to go on a prolonged losing streak at some point later on. In fact, I’m still marking Bowles at about 40% chance of lasting into 2018. The basic reasons stays the same: the Jets will most likely look to a new franchise QB and will want an offensive-minded coach to mentor him.
Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions
Preseason expectations
Given the talent base, I placed higher expectations on Jim Caldwell and thought he’d need a 9-7 record to stay safe. Personally, I felt that mark would be hard to achieve given the question marks on the offensive line, leading to a pessimistic 40% chance of him coaching the team in 2018.
Results so far
Thanks to an improved defense, the Lions have jumped out to 3-1 (+29 point differential) and very well could have been 4-0.
Updated chances
Well, it didn’t take long into this post for proof that I’m a moron. Jim Caldwell already earned that contract extension. I don’t think you can give any coach 100%, but let’s say 90%; in the unlikely event the Lions completely implode and lose 10 games, a contract extension won’t save him.
I’m still not sold on Caldwell as a great coach himself, but I do like the coaching staff in general. If he can retain his coordinators Teryl Austin and Jim Bob Cooter, then the Lions are set up well for the future.
John Fox, Chicago Bears
Preseason expectations
John Fox and company bought themselves a longer leash with the selection of Mitchell Trubisky. I listed Fox as needing a 7-9 record if he played the vet Mike Glennon all year long, but lowered that to 5-11 provided Trubisky got extended action. All in all, that combined for a 60% chance of sticking until 2018.
Results so far
The Bears clearly wanted to hold off on Trubisky as long as possible, but Mike Glennon couldn’t hold down the fort. An ugly 1-3 start (-43 point differential) has Trubisky ready for game action.
Updated chances
Bears fans are already building the Trubisky statue in Chicago, but I’m still in “wait and see” mode on this. For Fox’s sake, I wish they could have held out longer. Playing Trubisky at the end of the season (maybe for 6-8 games) would have been a good opportunity for him to get his feet wet with the goal of setting the table for 2018. But can Trubisky actually play well for 12 games? Given his limited experience, that’s asking a lot.
In a sense, Sean McVay’s success in Los Angeles hurts a veteran coach like John Fox. If Trubisky has a bumpy rookie season, the Bears may look around for their own version of McVay who can magically flip the switch and turn the lights on. All in all, I’m giving Fox only a 50% chance to stick around in 2018. If you’re convinced in Trubisky’s greatness from day one, those odds would obviously be higher.
Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns
Preseason expectations
Despite an ugly first year at the helm, Hue Jackson had time on his side in Cleveland. I figured he’d be given a long window here, with a bar of 4-12 and a solid 75% chance of sticking around until Year 3.
Results so far
The 2017 Browns are different, but not necessarily different in terms of talent and success. That 0-4 start (-44 point differential) doesn’t look pretty.
Updated chances
As with John Fox and Trubisky, Hue Jackson had a tough decision to make regarding his rookie DeShone Kizer. As far as Kizer’s development goes, it’s probably better to play him sooner than later. But as far as Jackson’s job goes, it may have been smarter to hold off. If Kizer only started 6-8 games at the end of the year, the team would have retained some mystery and optimism. Playing Kizer for 16 games exposes more scrutiny. Browns fans like Kizer, but I’m personally still skeptical about his long-term chances. And if Kizer sinks further, then it’s hard to trust Hue Jackson with another QB next year. I’m dropping his odds down to 55% (higher than Fox’s, because he’s still in year 2 on the job.)
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
Preseason expectations
After their playoff streak was broken, Marvin Lewis needed a rebound year. Or at least, a contending year. I listed 8-8 as a benchmark and gave Lewis a 65% chance of reaching that.
Results so far
The Bengals had an UGLY 0-2 start, but have shown some signs of life over the past two weeks after firing OC Ken Zampese. All in all, they’re 1-3 with a -3 point differential.
Updated chances
I usually get burned by being too optimistic about the Bengals, but I still see signs of hope on the horizon. The upcoming schedule isn’t too intimidating (Vs. Buffalo, bye, at Pittsburgh, vs. Indy, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee) meaning that Cincy may creep back up to .500 range again. Still, in a 1-3 hole, it’s less likely than not. Let’s downgrade Lewis to 45%.
Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars
Preseason expectations
As an interim coach who maintained the job, Doug Marrone risked being a mere placeholder for the future. Given that, I listed him as having only a 65% chance of surviving, with a 6-10 benchmark.
Results so far
How bout them Jags?? 2-2 (with a +35 point differential) is better than I would have expected. More than anything, you have to be bullish on their defense, led by superstar youngster Jalen Ramsey.
Updated chances
The Jaguars remind me of the Jets in some ways. Despite a strong start, I wouldn’t rule out the idea that they still crack 10+ losses this year. Their defense should keep them in games, but it’s still hard to win in this league without a consistent passing offense. I’ll bump Doug Marrone up to 70%, but it’s still no guarantee that he’ll be on the sidelines come 2018. In fact, that great young defense makes his job all the more appealing; perhaps the front office wants to ship in Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo as a package deal.
Ben McAdoo, New York Giants
Preseason expectations
After an 11-5 first season, I didn’t even list Ben McAdoo among the potential candidates to be fired, which meant that he had more than an 80% chance of surviving. But congrats, Mr. McAdoo — you have earned our attention anyway!
Results so far
The Giants may have had some tough-luck losses, but there’s no excuse for a 0-4 record (-35 point differential).
Updated chances
Ben McAdoo may have to change his name to Peter, but he’s starting to exhibit the telltale signs of that Principle now. After his success as an OC, the offense has stunk ever since he was promoted to the big boy chair. Simply put, there’s something about the team that looks “off” right now.
I suppose we can tie McAdoo’s fate together with Eli Manning‘s. If Manning wants to come back next season at age 37, then it doesn’t make much sense to bring in an entirely new offense and playbook. But if Manning exits after a disappointing season, then perhaps it’s time to turn the page completely. I’ll give McAdoo a 55% chance of survival because he is a second-year coach coming off an 11-5 first season, after all. If he returns for Year 3, he’ll immediately be on the hot seat, a la Todd Bowles, who had a similar arc with the Jets over Years 1 and 2.
Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts
Preseason expectations
Chuck Pagano has been taking up residence on the hot seat for a while now. Depending on Andrew Luck‘s health, I gave a high expectation of 10-6, with only a 40-45% chance of meeting that mark. Ultimately, I thought new GM Chris Ballard would want his own man for the job.
Results so far
Given Andrew Luck’s injury, no one can be surprised by the team’s 1-3 start (-65 point differential.)
Updated chances
Not having Andrew Luck around is a good excuse, but it may not be a compelling one. 2017 wasn’t going to be about Chuck Pagano losing his job — it would be about whether Chuck Pagano could stave off the inevitable and save his job. Not having Luck makes that hard to imagine. Let’s downgrade him to 20%.
Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers
Preseason expectations
Coming off a disappointing 2016, I listed Ron Rivera as a hot seat coach, which was unpopular among Carolina fans who believed he didn’t belong on the list. In my mind, an 8-8 benchmark was necessary, albeit with a solid 70% chance of surviving that.
Results so far
Carolina’s +8 point differential isn’t great, but they’re 3-1 and coming off a huge win in New England.
Updated chances
I’m still not sure if Carolina can keep that momentum going and make the playoffs, but 8-8 (or thereabouts) seems like an easy hurdle for this team to cross. Let’s boost Rivera up to over 80% range, which would take him off the hot seat territory.
