Welcome back to “Was it Worth It?” where every few days we will be exploring (okay, *I* will be exploring, and you mainly reading about it) all of the noteworthy QB dilemmas teams around the league faced this offseason and how they handled them, with my analysis of whether or not they have made the right decision. This week: The Chicago Bears.
As I have for every article, I hit up the team subreddit for opinions before sending this in. You can check it out here. There was no consensus opinion, but I have to admit that I was extremely impressed with the quality of the responses I got back. Sure, not every answer was detailed and well-thought out, but the overwhelming majority were. The Bears may not get a lot of respect in 2017, but I hope their fans do, because they certainly earned mine.
Now, on to the article.
Oh, what an enigma Jay Cutler has been. Only Alex Smith seems to have divided more fans as to whether or not he’s actually a good QB. Stats would suggest that he wasn’t, but for all his failings, he was exciting to watch, and seemed to do a lot with nothing at times. His time with the Bears has had a lot of ups and down, so we’re going to start from when he first joined the Bears back in–WAIT!
Okay, we’re not going back that far. My editor says I have to keep this one under 1600 words, so let’s go a bit more recent. 2013 was the Bears first year with Marc Trestman, Lovie Smith having been fired after going 10-6 the previous season. The message was heard loud and clear: winning seasons would not be tolerated.
The listed reason for Lovie’s firing was that the Bears were believed to be a playoff caliber team, therefore their lack of success must have been due to coaching. If so, did that mean that a playoff appearance was expected? Looking back on their schedule, I think it should have been. The Packers ended up winning the division with an 8-7-1 record, meaning the previously 10-6 Bears had every chance. Going 3-3 in against division opponents that had an overall record of 20-26-2 does not suggest great coaching. A lot of people were not thinking about this, though. All anyone could talk about was the amazing, franchise record-breaking season the Bears offense had, finishing second behind the Broncos. I have to say the Bears offense and not Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler played 10.2 games that year, arguably against tougher defensive teams, but his performance was barely above that of all the QBs that year (and 2013 was not a great year for QBs). Josh McCown, on the other hand, had gone up against much weaker defenses but had performed exceptionally well, posting 13 touchdowns to 1 interception. Both were now at the end of their contracts. Cutler was brought back. McCown wasn’t.
The then 30-year-old Cutler agreed to a 7 year, 126.7 million dollar deal. It’s difficult to really evaluate how bad a contract this was as it was so different from standard contracts. There was, first off, no signing bonus. At all. Zero. Secondly, the salary didn’t really start low and get higher over the following seasons, which made sense given the lack of bonus. Unfortunately, this created a situation where Cutler was significantly overpaid in the first year but would have been a complete steal if he played all seven (given his age and injury history, though, that would have been a foolish hope). Even this coming year, his average salary would have been only 10.8% of the cap, and he would have had three full years left. Only the first 3 years were guaranteed as well. With the lack of bonus and limited guarantees, it seemed the primary goal of this contract was to be able to get out of it. If that was the case…why even sign him? Josh McCown, who was three years older, but had also played better, agreed to a 2 year, 10 million dollar contract with Tampa Bay. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Chicago could have kept him for the same amount, saving 13.1 million dollars per year. I’m not saying McCown was better, but there is no question that he was the better deal, especially given that the team didn’t seem to really want to commit to either one. Oh well. Even people who thought the deal was a bad one (like me) still expected that 2014 would be a big year for Cutler. He still had Brandon Marshall, and now that Alshon Jeffrey had emerged, surely next year Cutler (and the Bears) would be even better.
…Or maybe they would be horrible.
It made no sense then and little more now. The Bears defense finished 30th overall, the same as in 2013. While I don’t think anyone expected a huge improvement, I think a little regression to the mean was expected, but they were every bit as bad. What really sank the ship, though, was the offense, specifically the play of the QB. While Cutler’s 5.88 adjusted net yards per attempt may not have been amazing, it was an entirely acceptable level of play. In 2014, though, that number dropped to 5.17. In some ways, there were positives, as Cutler posted what remains his highest ever completion percentage. I don’t think I remember a single ball hitting the ground. Unfortunately, a LOT of balls hit the hands of the other team, as Cutler tied for the lead in interceptions, and without even playing in all 16 games. The Bears ended up going 5-11, and Trestman found himself fired, along with GM Phil Emery.
If you had to guess which head coach would be the best bet to lead Jay Cutler to his best season ever, who would you pick? How many said John Fox? I’m hoping none of you, partially because he’s not a great offensive coach, but mostly because it’s not healthy to talk back to sports articles. At any rate, John Fox was brought in to rebuild an old and suffering defense, and Adam Gase came with him to be the offensive coordinator. I’m going to go out on a limb and say 2015 was a success. While 6-10 is not a good record, keep in mind that their losses were much closer, going from a point differential of -123 to only -62. Given the staggering amount of injuries the team suffered (only 4 players started all 16 games) and the relatively competent play of the rest of the division, plus a HUGE overhaul on the defense, this was, to me, a very positive start. The defense improved from 30th to 20th and the offense from 21st to 18th. The highlight, though, was Jay Cutler. 6.32 adjusted net yards per attempt was his best season ever, even better than his last season in Denver. Even more unbelievable, he and his offensive coordinator actually got along. Most offensive coordinators who work with Cutler don’t stay long, and Gase was no exception. What makes him unique is that he actually left for a well-earned promotion.
2016 was a surprisingly disappointing year. After a 6-10 season that showed improvement on both sides of the ball, they somehow fell to 3-13. Jay Cutler only started 5 games, yet somehow managed 5 interceptions and 6 fumbles. It’s tempting to wonder what might have been, but even if Cutler had been healthy all year, I’m still pretty sure he would have been let go this offseason. The real eyebrow-raiser was Brian Hoyer. Here’s a comparison for you. Jay Cutler, Matt Barkley, and David Fales combined for 395 attempts, 2566 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 24.5 turnovers. Brian Hoyer had 211 attempts, 1425 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1.5 turnovers. In terms of adjusted net yards, Hoyer managed 2.69 more per attempt. Had he maintained anywhere close to that, it would have been better than any season Cutler had ever had.
Offseason time. For the second time since 2013, the Bears had a cheap, experienced veteran who came in and heavily outplayed the other QBs on the team. Also for the second time, that QB was allowed to leave in free agency to go to another team for a small amount of money while over double the money was spent on a QB who performed worse. From 2013-2014, Mike Glennon has had 712 plays and has managed a whopping 4.79 adjusted net yards per play, yet in one year he will cost more than Brian Hoyer would have cost in two. Glennon is 4 years younger and has had fewer opportunities, so I definitely would understand the decision were the Bears focused on developing him and evaluating him to be the eventual franchise guy. However, Mitch Trubisky was later taken with the 2nd overall pick and will share 1st team reps with Glennon, as he is seemingly intended to be the long-term answer. If that’s the case, why pay so much for a bridge QB when Hoyer was available for so much less AND was proven to be a good enough fit for the team?
Was it worth it? Not even close.
The next article will be on the Cleveland Browns. As before, I will be checking out the comments on reddit beforehand, so let me know what you think. Anything particularly intelligent or funny will get a mention.
By the way, I wasn’t given a word limit, just thought it would be fun to act like I was on thin ice.
