Lando Norris could be a star in Formula 1.
Lando Norris, who is currently the McLaren F1 Team’s reserve driver, is being announced by many as the future star of English representation in the Formula 1, however, can he live up to this hype?
Unfortunately for Norris, he is being placed in a situation in which he is going to have the odds stacked against him to become the best driver in the competition. He will enter the Formula 1 Championship at the start of the 2019 season, replacing the struggling Stoffel Vandoorne, for McLaren. Throughout the 2018 season, Norris has made 2 (as of the Singapore Grand Prix) Free Practice 1 appearances driving 1 time in each of the available cars. As Fernando Alonso is one of the superior drivers to make an appearance in a Formula 1 Grand Prix race, this should allow us to make a decent prediction on how Norris’ pace will compare to those at the front of the grid, whom people are saying he shall rival and potentially out-class. If we want to compare these two drivers with quantitative data, then a number we can use is the drivers’ average position in each of their FP1 sessions.
Over the 2018 season, Fernando Alonso has averaged a position of 12th across all of his FP1 appearances (as of the Singapore Grand Prix), whilst Lando Norris has only been able to achieve an average of 19th. There are a lot of other notable points about their performances in Free Practice that can be used to interpret more factors about Norris’ pace. McLaren has been extremely slow in their progression on the performance of the car, which has been demonstrated by the sudden decline in the FP1 position that Alonso has been able to achieve, falling from 4 top 10 finishes in the first 7 sessions, to not having achieved any more finishes above 12th. This does give a reason for Norris’ extremely poor finishes in these sessions, as all of his sessions came in the later part of the season, however, this does not say that he should not be accomplishing more in these sessions given his reputation.
Norris has not shown the lack of abilities or skills required to conquer the challenges that are going to be presented to him in the early stages of his career. He started the journey towards his career at the age of 10 years old, becoming the youngest driver to obtain a pole position in a national meeting (UK). He then proved his winning mentality at a young age, going on to become the youngest World Karting Champion, winning the CIK-FIA KF World Championship title at the age 14, breaking the record set by current World Driver Champion, Lewis Hamilton. Norris then proceeded to work his way through other single-seater competitions winning many along the way, all culminating in him being presented with the McLaren Autosport BRDC Young Driver Award at the Autosport Awards in December of 2016. 2017 began with Norris debuting in and then winning the European Formula 3 Championship, leading to his signing for Carlin Racing as their driver for the 2018 Formula 2 Championship and for McLaren as a reserve and simulator driver throughout the 2018 Formula 1 Season.
Competing in Formula 2 has not managed to clear the doubt and concern that many have about his abilities, nor has it allowed him to completely prove himself as the future of English motorsport as he has only managed to secure one Race 1 win at Sakhir, and is also currently placed 2nd in the overall standings, having a 20 point gap to the drivers in both 1st and 3rd. Whilst many people would dream of achieving his position in the Championship, this is probably not where Norris aimed to be, as fellow English prodigy, George Russell, has demonstrated a lot better race pace, allowing him to pull away from Norris and into the lead of the Championship. This rivalry is set to last many years throughout their careers in Formula 1 and even beyond. This is important to mention when talking about Norris’ future, as the results he produces within this battle with Russell, will heavily influence how he is perceived by the fans and spectators of the competition. A major aspect of Norris’ driving that will give him a major advantage against Russell when they clash in Formula 1, is his consistency. The 2nd place in Formula 2 whilst only finishing 1st in one race, is a very impressive feat that demonstrates a great ability to maintain a high race pace independent of track conditions, whilst keeping the car safe and not being forced into any early retirements. Statistically, this advantage is can be seen by Norris’ Championship best 2 races outside of the points, compared to Russell’s 6 total races with scoring any points.
2019 will be the first full season that Norris will have in an F1 seat, meaning that it is highly likely that there will be a significant period of adjustment to this level of racing. Due to McLaren’s track record with prospects, this is going to be an extremely difficult and heavily criticized stretch for both McLaren and Norris, and there will be many spectators claiming an error in the decision to give him a seat over other prospective drivers like Esteban Ocon, Stoffel Vandoorne or, Norris’ rival, George Russell. Norris, however, has shown a distinct skill for adapting, with his win in Formula 2 coming in his debut race. A debut win in Formula 2 is especially impressive due to the extreme weather conditions that present themselves in Bahrain, accompanied by the lack of data regarding the temperatures and wear of tyres; his ability to gain the win whilst racing other drivers with a lot more experience in their setups, and in the type of racing that occurs in Formula 2, shows that he has a natural ability to be able to feel the limit of the car and how it is interacting with the racing surface.
The current situation at McLaren will provide additional turmoil to Lando Norris’ transition to a top performer in the league, with a struggling car and 2 completely new drivers. What McLaren decides to do with Norris, and how they choose to manage him, is honestly going to be the make or break of his career. The fight for supremacy that will occur between Norris and his fellow new driver, Carlos Sainz Jr, will be an interesting battle to watch, as McLaren will have to appease both of their drivers, and potentially be forced to favour one of them. McLaren will be placed into an extremely inopportune position as this decision will be between whether they believe they can do more now and try push Sainz to the top of the Championship, or whether they are willing to wait and push for the success once Norris has developed and the new regulations have come in. Both of these drivers may struggle to produce results in the Constructors Championship, without any team orders being introduced, as both drivers function best when they have a sector of free air to drive through. If McLaren do decide to rely on Norris to be there Championship winning chance, then they are going to have to be willing to allow a run of bad results in the Driver Championship, and focus on utilising teamwork and strategy to keep both drivers in the points, using these results to invest heavily in the next regulations being introduced in 2021, intent on negating the mechanical deficit that they have suffered under these regulations.
Lando Norris is an exceptional racing talent with the potential to achieve amazing feats whilst competing in the F1, however, there is only so much he can do if he is racing for an underperforming team. Norris has demonstrated the abilities and mentality required to achieve the role that many spectators and fans believe he will at the pinnacle of English motorsports. Keep your eye on the rivalry that has formed between him and George Russell, as it promises an exciting and entertaining saga that will span many years and championships; regardless of the teams in which these 2 drivers find themselves seated.
