Vegas spends millions of dollars getting experts to set betting lines to be as accurate as possible. This series uses Vegas opening betting lines to identify the teams with high point projections to help find sleepers and busts. Obviously don’t sit your Odell Beckham Jr. for Terrance Williams just because the Vegas projection for the Cowboys is higher than the projection for the Giants, instead, use it as a tiebreaker. The obvious must-starts like Antonio Brown and the obvious irrelevant players with 0.1% ownership won’t be mentioned.
Line of the Week:
New England Patriots (-5.5) @ Oakland Raiders. Over/Under 50.
A 50 point over/under as the Patriots and the Raiders play in the high altitudes of Mexico City. The Patriots are 5.5 point favorites so don’t bench any of your Patriots studs. Chris Hogan’s injury creates opportunity and last week all 3 active (sorry Mike Gillislee) RB’s turned in good outings. Dion Lewis is the Patriots number 1 option and against a poor Raiders defense, he should feast. Rex Burkhead actually led the RB’s in snaps last time out and with him playing in the slot at times, he is the primary beneficiary with Hogan sidelined, he is a solid start without Hogan. James White has had his workload cut down but salvaged a decent fantasy day with a late touchdown, sit him and his 11 snaps. Danny Amendola doesn’t get enough volume to be a start, Martellus Bennett should get more work this week but he is still hard to trust with Gronk playing.
The Head is here to feast
The Patriots defense had two consecutive games where they held the opposing QB to ~220 yards and 1 touchdown, but they are still ranked 31st so Derek Carr is still a good start. Marshawn Lynch had his best game before the bye, and he should be a good start this week. Amari Cooper failed to capitalize on his 33 point explosion week 7, but with 19 targets in the last two games, he should still be started. Michael Crabtree is a weekly must-start and so is Jared Cook after his 126 yard game week 9.
Lines of Exploit
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5). Over/Under 50.
The other 50 point over/under game, although this one is slightly more lopsided, giving the Saints the highest projected total of the week. You’re not sitting Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, or Michael Thomas. Ted Ginn only had 1 catch for 3 yards last week but the Saints completely dominated that game on the ground against a poor Buffalo run defense. This game should be closer, making Ginn a sneaky start. Coby Fleener gets the best matchup, but he simply doesn’t get enough work to be recommended, only take a chance if you are desperate for a TE.
Washington faces a good Saints defense, Chris Thompson is a must-start especially with Rob Kelley on IR. Semaje Perine has not been good when given opportunity so he is a sit until he shows promise. Kirk Cousins is still a good option but his pass catchers are hard to trust. Jordan Reed potentially returning with Vernon Davis playing great will most likely hurt both their values. Jamison Crowder has had two good weeks and might be the best fantasy option with Marshon Lattimore potentially shadowing Josh Doctson. Speaking of Doctson, he needs a good fantasy performance before being a recommended start.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys. Over/Under 47.
The Head is here to feast
An NFC East showdown with a somewhat surprising line. Dallas just turned in a putrid performance against a beatable Atlanta defense. Dallas players are dependent on the availability of OT Tyron Smith, as without him Dak Prescott spent the game running for his life. In fact, you can probably sit every Cowboy if Smith is out. If he’s good to go, then this game should turn from a blowout to a shootout, and starting Dez Bryant, Alfred Morris, even potentially Jason Witten would be wise. Dez is a no brainer, Morris is the starting RB behind a fantastic line, and although Witten is inconsistent, he is a start because Dak looks his way when the going gets tough, and this game is tough. Rod Smith led the RB’s in snap and with this team likely down he should see work. However we still do not know if that means good fantasy production, sit him for now.
Coming off the bye, this is an all-systems go for the Eagles. Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, and Alshon Jeffery are every week starts. Nelson Agholor had two consecutive disappointing outings before the bye, but with the Eagles rested he should bounce back. Newcomer Jay Ajayi was great in his Eagles debut, and with 3 weeks to learn the playbook, he is a fantastic start. LaGarrette Blount and Corey Clement should both be sat with Ajayi in the mix.
Expect more of this.
Lines of Avoid
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ Green Bay Packers. Over/Under 38.5.
Come back please, Discount Double Check
One of the lowest lines of the week, but there is optimism for points to be had in this game. The Ravens are coming off their bye, and Jeremy Maclin had two consecutive good weeks before it, making him a solid start. Alex Collins is the Ravens RB1, and the game script should allow him a decent amount of work, making him a start, especially if Danny Woodhead is not brought back this week.
Green Bay players are hard to trust against a good Ravens defense, Davante Adams has taken over the WR1 role from Jordy Nelson, making him an okay start and Nelson a sit. Ty Montgomery has a chance to play but after re-injuring his ribs, it’s hard to see him in a featured role even if he suits up. Jamaal Williams gets the featured role with a healthy Packers offensive line against a beatable Ravens run defense. However, the Ravens has looked better recently and Williams has not impressed this season, making him a risky start. Everybody else in this game are sits.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) @ Cleveland Browns. Over/Under 38.
It’s not going to be a fun week for Kizer.
Despite the lowest over/under of the week, Jacksonville gets a great matchup and should do well against Cleveland. The Browns run defense has actually been good, but you should not be benching Leonard Fournette anyways due to game script. Marqise Lee is a solid start especially with Allen Hurns likely to miss the game.
On Cleveland’s side of the ball, the suggestion is to bench everybody as Jacksonville’s defense is amazing. Out of desperation, Duke Johnson can potentially turn in a good day, but with this pass rush likely in DeShone Kizer’s face all day, Johnson is also very risky.
Kansas City Chiefs (-13) @ New York Giants. Over/Under 43.5.
The Chiefs have a great projected total of 28.25 points, making Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill all good starts. The Giants, however, have the lowest projected point total (even lower than the Browns!). This is actually quite surprising as the Chiefs defense has been suspect and Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram has been good. Orleans Darkwa is a sit due to the negative game script, but Shepard and Engram have potential for garbage time production.
