Mohamed Sanu looks like a good start this week.
Vegas spends millions of dollars getting experts to set betting lines to be as accurate as possible. This series uses Vegas opening betting lines to identify the teams with high point projections to help identify sleepers and busts. Obviously don’t sit your Odell Beckham Jr. for Terrance Williams just because the Vegas projection for the Cowboys is higher than the projection for the Giants, instead, use it as a tiebreaker. The obvious must-starts like Antonio Brown and the obvious irrelevant players with 0.1% ownership won’t be mentioned.
Line of the Week:
Atlanta Hawks @ New England Patriots (-4). Over/Under 54.
Super Bowl rematch! And more importantly by far the highest over/under of the week. Statistically speaking Atlanta has been good against wide receivers this season but this is inflated by meetings with the Bears and the Bills. Even Miami’s receivers played well against the Falcons so start all your Patriots receivers including Danny Amendola. Onto the Patriots RB conundrum, if Chris Hogan is out, pass catching back and Super Bowl hero James White becomes a good start. It’s been 4 consecutive bad weeks for Mike Gillislee and last week’s fumble certainly didn’t help, keep him on the bench. Dion Lewis has been getting more and more involved, and as a dual threat out of the backfield, he is a viable option.
On Atlanta’s side, you are starting your studs, and Tevin Coleman is a stud despite being the number 2 RB on this team. The Patriots defense has not been able to stop anyone so if Mohamed Sanu plays, he is a fine start. Taylor Gabriel gets a big boost with Sanu out but he’s a flex start regardless against this defense. Gabriel did disappoint against Miami last week but that defense was actually decent. Consider starting Austin Hooper only if Sanu’s out.
Good Lines of Exploit
Tennessee Titans (-7) @ Cleveland Browns. Over/Under 46.5.
The Titans are projected to win big on the road against the Cleveland Browns. Despite last week’s dud, Delanie Walker is a great start as Cleveland has not been able to stop the Tight End at all this year. Cleveland’s run defense looks good but that is inflated by a surprising lack of rushing touchdowns, you’re not sitting DeMarco Murray if he plays but Derrick Henry could also be interesting if Murray isn’t 100% and the game script should allow the Titans to just pound the ball with Henry. Marcus Mariota is a great start but his pass catchers are a bigger question mark, Eric Decker out-targeted Rishard Matthews last week but Matthews is still the better red-zone target. Matthews is the better start but both have flex appeal.
Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6). Over/Under 48.5.
I had to do a double take on this line; the Eagles are favored by 6 in a high scoring divisional game? Nevertheless, with this high line and the Eagles coming off a 10-day rest, you should be firing up your Eagles players. Zach Ertz is an every week start and with a good matchup, he should feast. Carson Wentz is a good start, and so is LeGarrette Blount. Even with Wendell Smallwood potentially coming back, Blount has been great and against an injured Washington line and positive game script, he should turn in a good day. The wide receivers are dependent on the availability of Josh Norman, but Nelson Agholor plays the slot and has turned in 2 consecutive good weeks on top of a good performance week 1 against the same opponent, start him. Alshon Jeffrey had 10 targets coming off a short week last time out, with extra rest and Norman potentially being out he is a great start. Don’t bother with Torrey Smith as his floor is too low and he reaches that floor too frequently.
Bad Lines of Avoid
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings (-5). Over/Under 39.5.
The Ravens are 5 point underdogs on a line lower than 40 so owners should warm the bench accordingly. Vikings run defense is great and their pass defense is underrated statistically due to giving up two big weeks to the Steelers and Buccaneers weeks 2 and 3. Javorius Allen and Alex Collins are not worth starting. Jeremy Maclin has been a disappointment this season and this is not the week for him to turn it around. Mike Wallace should also be a sit due to the difficult matchup.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5). Over/Under 38.5.
You should not be starting any Jets wide receivers anyways but with the lowest line of the week and potentially the return of Bilal Powell, you shouldn’t start him or Matt Forte either as they will kill each other’s value. Dolphins star running back Jay Ajayi was finally healthy last week and turned in an awesome performance, so expect Miami to turn to him often, burning the clock in the process. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is the only viable start option for New York as the tight end is the only position the Dolphins have trouble defending.
Seattle Seahawks (-8) @ New York Giants. Over/Under 39.
The Giant’s opponents are coming off a bye and have a great defense… again. Last week the Giants faced the heavy favorites in the Broncos and actually won behind great weeks by Orleans Darkwa and Evan Engram. With Sterling Shepard potentially coming back this week, can the Giants do it again? Vegas says no and you have to believe the Seahawks aren’t going to underestimate their opponents now. Seattle has a really balanced defense so every Giant should be a sit. Only start the Giants players out of desperation.
