From the moment he made his debut as a twenty-two-year-old with the Atlanta Braves in 2010, Craig Kimbrel has dominated the baseball world. Equipped with an upper 90s fastball and a wipeout slider, Kimbrel made his presence known in his brief 21 game call-up that season, going 4-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 17.4 K/9 in 20.2 innings pitched. The scary thing is, as good as Kimbrel was that season, it was nothing compared to what was to come.
As a true “rookie” in 2011, Kimbrel was an All-Star and the unanimous National League Rookie of the Year after going 4-3 with a 2.10 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, a career-high 127 strikeouts, and 77.0 innings pitched (14.8 K/9) and a league-leading 64 games finished and 46 saves. From 2012-2014, Kimbrel made the All-Star team each season while leading the league in saves each year, firmly establishing himself in the upper echelon of the game’s closers by averaging 46 saves, 103 strikeouts (14.5 K/9) 2.9 WAR, and a 298 ERA+ with a 1.27 ERA and 0.815 WHIP.
As one of the first steps in their rebuilding effort, the Braves traded to the Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres on April 5, 2015. In a “down” year with the Friars, Kimbrel still went 4-2 with 39 saves, a 2.59 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, and 13.2 K/9 despite not making the All-Star team for the first time in his career. It was Kimbrel’s only year in San Diego, as he was then traded to the Boston Red Sox prior to the 2016 season. While Kimbrel made his fifth All-Star appearance with the Red Sox in 2016, he saved a career-low 31 games, with a career worse 3.40 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, 2.77 K:BB ratio, 132 ERA+, and 0.8 WAR. At that point, fans were beginning to wonder if 2016 marked the beginning of Kimbrel’s decline as an elite closer in the MLB, especially after a torn meniscus in his knee cost him six weeks of the 2016 season.
Instead, Kimbrel came out roaring in 2017 and had his best season as a pro with 3.6 WAR en route to his sixth All-Star appearance. In 67 games, Kimbrel went 5-0 with 35 saves, a microscopic 1.43 ERA and career-best 0.681 WHIP, 126 strikeouts (16.4 K/9) a 319 ERA+, and an incredible 9.00 K:BB ratio. Thanks to Aroldis Chapman’s inconsistency and Kenley Jansen’s diminished velocity, it would not be stretch to say that at the moment, Craig Kimbrel has returned to his mantle as the best closer in all of baseball.
This season is Kimbrel’s ninth in the MLB; so far, before the age of 30, Kimbrel has won both the Rivera and Hoffman Award as the best closer in the AL and the NL. Which begs the question; is Craig Kimbrel on pace to become a Hall of Fame closer, where he would join Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman in Cooperstown?
Let’s start by comparing Hoffman and Kimbrel. The major advantage that Kimbrel has on Hoffman is that Hoffman didn’t make his major league debut until the age of 25; for reference, Kimbrel was already a three-time All-Star with over 100 saves under his belt by 25. Through their first eight seasons in the MLB, here are Hoffman and Kimbrel’s numbers side-by-side.
Hoffman, 32: 40-35, 2.72 ERA, 509 G, 413 GF, 271 SV, 581.1 IP, 665 K, 150 ERA+, 1.034 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 3.80 K:BB, 18.3 WAR
Kimbrel, 29: 26-18, 1.80 ERA, 479 G, 392 GF, 291 SV, 470.1 IP, 772 K, 222 ERA+, 0.910 WHIP, 14.8 K/9, 4.40 K:BB, 17.9 WAR
While Hoffman posted 0.5 WAR more than Kimbrel, Kimbrel has a better ERA, save total, strikeout total and K/9, ERA+, WHIP, and K:BB ratio than Hoffman at the same points in their career. Yet while Hoffman may not have been as dominant as Kimbrel, he pitched another ten seasons until the age of 42, racking up another 330 saves in the process to bring his career total to 601, which were enough to punch his ticket into the Hall of Fame.
Before comparing Kimbrel to Rivera, widely regarded as the greatest relief pitcher in baseball history, it should be noted that this comparison is more difficult because Rivera is the greatest pitcher in postseason history, while Kimbrel has pitched a total of ten postseason innings, albeit with a 1.80 ERA and 0.900 WHIP. Just like Hoffman, Rivera did not make his MLB debut until the age of 25 and was 32 in his eighth big league season.
Rivera, 32: 38-27, 2.60 ERA, 448 G, 348 GF, 243 SV, 579.0 IP, 519 K, 180 ERA+, 1.073 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.11 K:BB, 22.7 WAR
Kimbrel, 29: 26-18, 1.80 ERA, 479 G, 392 GF, 291 SV, 470.1 IP, 772 K, 222 ERA+, 0.910 WHIP, 14.8 K/9, 4.40 K:BB, 17.9 WAR
As arguably the greatest multi-inning weapon in baseball history, Rivera has a higher WAR total than Kimbrel by about 5.0 WAR over their first eight years in the MLB. From there though, Kimbrel has more saves, more strikeouts, a higher ERA+, and a significantly better ERA, WHIP, and K:BB ratio than Rivera. What Rivera did do from 1995-2002, however, is win four World Series championships, something Kimbrel has yet to do at all.
This offseason, Wade Davis, who is three years older than Kimbrel, was signed to a three-year contract with the Rockies, a year after Aroldis Chapman (Kimbrel’s age) and Kenley Jansen (one-year older) agreed to five-year contracts to remain with the Yankees and Dodgers. With Kimbrel set to hit free agency this offseason, it is not inconceivable that the Red Sox could sign him to an extension of upwards of five seasons to remain in Boston. Including this season, if Kimbrel averages 30 saves per year, a low mark for an elite closer, he will have at least 474 saves in his career, which would be fourth all-time behind Rivera, Hoffman, and Lee Smith. Based on his production thus far, if Kimbrel can remain healthy into his 30s and even pitch until 40 like Rivera and Hoffman, there is no doubt he will have the numbers to join the select group of closers in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
