When writing about your favorite team there is an active effort made towards being objective. At times a sense of being too objective and cold seems to pervade, which may seem preferable to being overly enthusiastic and optimistic about your team’s outlook, but I digress. The Atlanta Braves are nearing the reward of their rebuild as we are starting to see prospects promoted to the big league level and producing at SunTrust Park. With this influx of talent, the Braves are among my teams that I expect to improve the most in 2018.
Top Player 2017
Ender Inciarte is, technically, the Braves best player.
At this time I find it necessary to clarify that Freddie Freeman is the best player on the Atlanta Braves roster. However, if we use the ESPN Player Rater, we see that Ender Inciarte was the best Braves player in 2017. Ender continued to add on to his 2016 performance, amassing 201 hits this past season, which was good for third best in the major leagues. On top of that Inciarte stole 21 bases and hit 11 home runs. His improvement in power output helps his value tremendously, as he is no longer a detriment to your roster in terms of HR and RBI.
Looking forward, Ender will continue to serve as the leadoff man in an ever-improving Bravos lineup. He is a fantastic source of AVG, SB, and runs and, if the ball remains juiced next season, he no longer hurts you in HR. As the 32nd OF taken (107 overall), Ender offers a steals in the mid-late round of your draft. With most of the premier speedsters going well ahead of the eighth or ninth round, Inciarte is a very safe, viable option as a second or third outfielder if you missed out on steals in the first few rounds.
Targets
Many Braves players are likely to improve their stat lines in 2018, making many of them viable buy-lows and targets in drafts. My favorite of Atlanta’s players going into next season is the youngest on their roster, Ozzie Albies. The 21-year-old 2B is set to start every day for the Braves, and for good reason. In 57 games, Albies hit .286/.354/.456 with 6 HR and 8 SB. While his BB%, K%, and swinging strike rate are all in line with his career rates, the .314 BABIP he put up in the big leagues is actually lower than his average in the minors, indicating that he should, at the very least, maintain his impressive contact skills at the plate.
All indicators show that Albies talent is legit, and let’s not forget that he put up these numbers at only 20 years of age. As the 17th 2B (167th overall) off the board, Albies can be had for the low, low price of a 14th round pick, assuming a 12 team league. I am praying that his price stays this low, as I expect that a reasonable projection for Albies in 2018 is 10-15 HR, 25-35 SB, and a .280/.340/.440 slash line. This kind of value usually doesn’t stay hidden throughout an offseason, so expect his ADP to rise between now and March. Nonetheless, I hope to have Albies on most, if not all of my fantasy rosters next season.
Stayaways
Only two Braves starters made my starting pitching rankings; Julio Teheran, or the pitcher formerly known as the Braves ace, comes in at number 74 in my early rankings. In the FanGraphs mock drafts Teheran was the 51st SP off the board (200th overall). 2018 was Teheran’s worst season in his five-year career. The 26-year-old righty put up a career high in ERA (4.49) and WHIP (1.37) as well as a career low in strikeouts (151). Teheran’s underlying numbers suggest that his 4.49 ERA may have even been a bit lucky, as his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all indicate that his ERA should fall closer to 4.90. On top of that, Teheran posted a career-worst in K% (18.6), BB% (8.9), and swinging strike rate (9.4%).
Teheran had a bad season. His narrative all year centered on his struggles to perform at home in the new Atlanta ballpark. His 5.86 ERA at SunTrust Park in 2017 isn’t good, but we should expect an improvement in his home performance next season. Even with that taken into consideration, I am not excited to draft Teheran next season. I’m inclined to believe that Teheran’s best season is behind him. Based solely on regression to the mean, it is likely that he’ll have a better 2018 than 2017, however, I do not think that the improvement will result in a pitcher worth owning, let alone one that will provide surplus value. For these reasons, I do not plan on drafting Teheran.
Deep Sleepers
Drafting closers is one of the hardest parts of fantasy baseball. Some swear by the strategy of paying top dollar for the best relievers, proven studs that perform year in and year out. Others argue that relief pitching is so fluid and fickle that it isn’t worth investing much in closers. The managers in this camp, myself included target cheaper relievers that have the potential to compete with the top closers at a fraction of the price. Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino is a perfect example of this type of pitcher.
In 2017 the Braves closer role was predominantly held by Jim Johnson, who put up a less than stellar 5.56 ERA and blew 9 of his 31 save opportunities. Vizcaino, meanwhile, had a fantastic year, eventually earning the trust of manager Brian Snitker to close out games. In 2017 Vizcaino put up a 2.83 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, en route to earning 14 saves and 17 holds. He should have the role all to himself in 2018 and, as the 23rd RP taken (246th overall), any risk in taking him is mitigated. With potential to put up a healthy handful of saves next season along with solid ratios, Vizcaino may be worth a look in the late rounds of your 2018 drafts.
Impact Prospects
On an Atlanta squad full of prospects nearly ready for the majors, this distinction could go to a number of different players. I would be remiss, however, to write about the Braves without mentioning their newest breakout. Ronald Acuna is officially the Atlanta Braves top prospect for good reason. Acuna started the year at high-A Florida, and after proving he was more than ready for the next level, was promoted to AA Mississippi. There, the nineteen-year-old outfielder improved further, hitting .326/.374/.520 in 57 games before being promoted again to AAA Gwinnett, at which point his production increased even further to the tune of a .344/.393/.548 slash line in 54 games. Across the three levels this past season, Acuna hit 22 HR and stole 44 bases.
While it unclear where in Atlanta he will play, there are rumblings that the Braves may be looking to move Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis this offseason to potentially free up playing time for the young outfielder. If either of these two are traded this offseason, Acuna will become a very popular late-round flier come March. With realistic 15-40 upside, that interest is definitely warranted.
