How much blame should fall on Dirk Koetter?
With news breaking that Tampa Bay may rest Jameis Winston‘s shoulder for a few weeks, it’s beginning to look a lot like a “lost season” for the Buccaneers. A five-game losing streak has dropped them to 2-6 (with a -40 point differential.) With New Orleans and Carolina playing well, it’s hard to imagine this pirate ship being turned around in 2017.
As a result of that disappointment, there has been some chatter about Dirk Koetter’s job security. The Ringer‘s Mike Lombardi has been the most vocal about it, blaming Koetter for the failures and relaying rumors that the franchise is eyeing a reunion with former coach Jon Gruden in his place.
So with that question in mind, let’s examine this more closely, assess blame, and determine if Koetter should really fall under the sword.
Tampa’s 2017 struggles
Tampa Bay promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach largely because of his strong relationship and strong work with young Jameis Winston. Together, that tandem flashed a lot of potential last year, going 9-7 in Koetter’s first season at the helm.
2017 was supposed to be another leap forward, both for Winston specifically and for this Tampa Bay as a whole. Clearly, that hasn’t happened yet. They’re 2-6, with their only two wins coming at home to mediocre-at-best teams in Chicago and the N.Y. Giants.
Jameis Winston’s slow improvement
Fueled partly by Hard Knocks hype, the world anticipated a Jameis Winston MVP campaign. The team added two new weapons in WR DeSean Jackson and TE O.J. Howard, which in theory would make Winston and this passing game unstoppable.
If Winston’s taken a step up, it’s been a baby step. His completion percentage has risen slowly — from 58.3% as a rookie to 60.8% to 61.4% so far this year. His QB rating has also made a steady climb from 84.2 to 86.1 to 87.3.
On the other hand, I can see a skeptic making the argument that Winston has not improved enough under Koetter, especially in an NFL landscape where Carson Wentz and Jared Goff have made giant leaps forward. His QBR (like the stat or not) has sagged to a career-low 41.3. Winston has also turned the ball over more than once a game, which has been a career problem for him. He had 18 interceptions last season and famously tossed 18 picks in his last season at Florida State as well. It’s completely speculative and irresponsible, but one may wonder about Winston’s vision — literally, his vision. His tendency to squint was dismissed as a cute little quirk, but if it’s limiting his field of vision and leading to turnovers, perhaps the Bucs should look into LASIK.
In defense of Dirk Koetter
You can nitpick Koetter’s offense — and I would. He tends to favor vertical receivers like Vincent Jackson and now DeSean Jackson, despite the fact that both caught less than 50% of their targets. I’d like to see Koetter counter-balance that by manufacturing short and easier completions underneath to help drive up Winston’s completion percentage and help keep drives chugging along with more consistency.
But in general, I think the passing offense is fine, in need of tweaks rather than an overall. The biggest problem with Jameis Winston this year to me have been soreness in his shoulder, and overinflated expectations. The kid is only 23 years old — maybe all that MVP talk had been premature. Once he gets healthy and back to 100%, he should continue to make strides.
I don’t think a new coach and a new scheme would be any help to him in that regard, and may only serve to slow down Winston’s development even more. Continuity and stability can be a QB’s best friend.
So all in all, I would NOT fire Dirk Koetter. Sure, if Jon Gruden is legitimately in play, you’d have to at least consider that (even if he hasn’t coached in 10 years). Gruden’s a stud coach that commands respect in the locker room. However, aside from Gruden, I don’t see a coach on the market that would represent a clear upgrade from Koetter and would justify that type of shakeup. I’d put Koetter on notice for 2018, but I believe he merits that full third year before any decisions should be made about his future beyond that.
The real problem in Tampa
Tampa Bay won a Super Bowl under Jon Gruden, but it wasn’t really Jon Gruden that fueled that title chase. Tampa Bay’s defense — engineered under Tony Dungy before him — was the true defining characteristic of those great teams.
They had superstars on every level, from LB Derrick Brooks to CB Ronde Barber, to DB John Lynch. But more than anything else, the Bucs had a dominant defensive line. DT Warren Sapp sliced and diced with the best interior linemen in the league, and DE Simeon Rice was as big of a pass-rushing freak off the edge as you’ll find.
Ever since then, Tampa has been trying — and failing — to recreate that dynamic. They’ve gotten 1/2 of that 1-2 punch right with DT Gerald McCoy, but they’ve never paired McCoy with a dominant end like Rice. Their veteran acquisitions haven’t lasted, and their draft picks have busted. I had high hopes for young Noah Spence, but injuries have limited him so far.
Under Mike Smith‘s soft vanilla scheme, the Bucs have racked up a grand total of 8 sacks this year. 8. That’s the worst in the NFL, by far. And that’s only partly Mike Smith’s fault. Every type of 4-3 defense requires a dominant front four to succeed and generate pressure on their own, and he doesn’t have the horses for that right now.
More than anything else, Tampa Bay needs a pass rushing DE. Rather than tinker with the passing offense again, or blow up the coaching staff again, that should be their primary and sole focus this offseason. If they have a top 10 pick, I’d look long and hard at North Carolina State’s Bradley Chubb (an experienced senior who can play both run and pass well), and Clemson’s Clelin Ferrell (a long-armed sophomore with a lot of upside.)
TL;DR To me, blaming Dirk Koetter for the problems this season are a little misguided. He can succeed with the right adjustments to the roster around him.
