Fans of certain teams (cough cough Jets) may be more vested in this storyline than others, but it’ll be interesting to watch the handful of college QBs who have a chance to be top 10 picks in next year’s draft.
So with that in mind, here’s my amateur opinion of the horse race after college week 3.
Top 5 after Week 3
USC’s Sam Darnold remains atop the QB totem pole following week 3.
(1) Sam Darnold, USC
Previous rank: 1A
This week
Win vs. Texas, 27-24 (OT)
28-49 passing, 397 yards, 3 TDs, 2 int
Current stock
Sam Darnold threw multiple interceptions for the third week in a row — which is becoming a bad trend for him.
Still, he reminds you of Jameis Winston in his last year at Florida State. Perhaps he’s forcing the issue some, but he still has all the tools (good size, athleticism, big arm) that you’d want in a franchise QB. Like Jameis, Darnold also turned it on late and grabbed the victory.
(2) Josh Rosen, UCLA
Previous rank: 1B
This week
Loss at Memphis, 48-45
34-56 passing, 463 yards, 4 TDs, 2 int, rush TD
Effect on stock
I’m knocking down Josh Rosen back to #2 after having him in a virtual tie with Sam Darnold. On the surface, that’s not entirely fair. Rosen threw a couple of picks (his first of the season) while Darnold has racked up 6 this year.
However, Rosen’s interceptions were costly ones. He also lost the game, whereas Darnold pulled out the victory.
More and more, I’m seeing Josh Rosen as a player who may be a good starter in the NFL on the right team, but perhaps not one that can carry an entire franchise on his back. Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan (pre-MVP breakout) would be comps in that regard.
(3) Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
Previous rank : 3
This week
Win at Pittsburgh, 56-21
23-32 passing, 497 yards, 5 TDs, 1 int
Effect on stock
Another week, another big total from Mason Rudolph. A possible R2 pick last year, he’s done everything you’d expect from a senior who returned to campus to beat up on the college competition.
Rolling through Pitt shouldn’t have been this easy. Their coach Pat Narduzzi has a defensive background, as the DC at Michigan State. However, Rudolph kept the train rolling. I especially like Rudolph spreading the ball around in this offense. He had four different receivers crack 100 yards this week, each of them averaging 20+ yards per catch.
Circle Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma on your calendar, because that’s going to be a defining moment of the season.
(4) Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Previous rank: 5
This week
Loss vs. Clemson, 47-21
21-42 passing, 317 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int, 64 rushing yards
Effect on stock
I didn’t rank Lamar Jackson in my initial top 5 and only had him # 5 last week.
Personally, I didn’t feel like Lamar Jackson was a viable R1 prospect until he proved that he can become a consistent passer.
This week against Brent Venables’ fierce Clemson defense was going to be the ultimate test. And while Jackson’s total stat line looks fine, he did NOT pass that test. He started the game 6-16 for 61 yards, racking up yardage later in the blowout.
Simply put: Lamar Jackson will not be able to succeed as a pro passer until he actually can win passing the ball. Jackson’s put on some weight and muscle, but relying on your legs in the NFL is a great way to end up on the IR.
So why did Jackson rise if I’m still skeptical? Because someone else bombed out. More on that later on.
(5) Luke Falk, Washington State
Previous rank: not ranked
This week
Win vs. Oregon State, 52-23
37-49 passing, 396 yards, 6 TDs, 0 int
Effect on stock
Senior Luke Falk has danced in and out of the fringes of the top 5 for me, and he’ll sneak back onto the list now after another big week.
The reason I have Falk slightly ahead of other great college QBs like Baker Mayfield and Jake Browning is his frame (at 6’4″), but there’s not a huge difference between all three right now. They’re all rising and could make appearances in the top five soon.
Other names (not in order)
Josh Allen, Wyoming
Hyped as the likely #1 pick by Adam Schefter before the season, Josh Allen has all the tools of a franchise QB. I only listed him at #3 in my preseason rankings though, because I wanted to see him prove it on the field first. After all, he only completed 56.0% of his passes last year.
But alas, it may be time we admit that “the emperor has no clothes” here. Josh Allen had a clunker against Iowa in Week 1 (174 yards, 0 TD, 2 int) and needed a big week against Oregon to show he belonged. Instead? He imploded. He completed 9-24 passing for 64 yards (no, that’s not a typo.) 64 total passing yards. I realize that Wyoming doesn’t have the talent to match up with a team like Oregon, but you have to do better than that.
Josh Allen may be best served returning to school next year to further refine his game. He can still jump to the pros and hope a team loves his “tools,” but he’s only a developmental project at the moment in my mind.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Arguably the best college QB in the nation, Mayfield and Oklahoma rolled on in a dominant 56-14 win over Tulsa. He still has some physical limitations that may affect his stock, but the solace with someone like Mayfield (as opposed to Josh Allen) is that you can count on him to a good backup QB in the league, which gives him value even if he doesn’t turn into a starter.
Jake Browning, Washington
The junior played well again this week, and I debated putting him up in the top 5 as a result (right now he’s #6). He reminds me of Jared Goff in some ways. Both are thin kids who won their starting jobs as true freshman and have been solid ever since. There’s still some physical development that needs to happen with Browning, but he has the potential to climb up these rankings even further.
