Week 4 NFL Picks — Against The Spread

If you followed Anshu’s picks last week (and bet enough money), you could already be rich.

If you bet $1 million per game on my picks– congrats, you’re a millionaire. 

Miami @ Cincinnati (-7.5): Two teams that are probably better than their record suggests, but the fact Miami needed a missed FG and OT to beat Cleveland with the Kessler/Pryor Dynamic Duo at the helm, plus the return of Vontaze Burfict, gives me reason to believe in the Queen City Jungle Cats. Pick: Cincinnati Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville (+2.5): These overseas games have been extra sloppy, but the Jags have been a massive disappointment and Indianapolis still has the best player on the field. Expect fireworks. Pick: Indianapolis Cleveland @ Washington (-7): Everyone must have missed the ‘Skins knocking off everyone’s two-week darling last week in NYG. Hue Jackson has done a fine job already and will get some wins before all is said and done, but this is not one of them. It’s not a cover, either. Pick: Washington Buffalo @ New England (-4.5): Rex Ryan has been very solid against Belichick, but far be it for me to bet against the Evil Empire, even with a gimpy Garoppolo commanding the revolving door at QB. #RideWithBelly Pick: New England Seattle @ New York Jets (+2.5): Really tough call here. The Jets menacing front is going to be a problem for a hampered Russell Wilson, while not having Decker on the other end makes it more difficult to see Ryan Pickmagic to penetrate the Legion. I’d like the line to be +3, but I like the Flyboys to at least cover at home. Pick: New York Jets Carolina @ Atlanta (+3): Matty Ice has quietly gotten fat on cupcakes in the league’s first three weeks, but the defending NFC champs present a very different sort of challenge. Expect a major rebound from Julio Jones against the Norman-less Panthers, but Cam to still find a way back to .500 this week. Pick: Carolina Detroit @ Chicago (+3): Detroit has picked up where they left off in 2015, losing close games at a depressing rate for the Mo-Town faithful. They’re significantly better than Chicago and show it on Soldier Field’s torn-up turf. Pick: Detroit Tennessee @ Houston (-4.5): Vegas’ oddsmakers have pinned the value of JJ Watt at 2 points, which seems about right. Still, the line was about 1.5 points too high to begin with– I like Mariota and Co. and their resurgent defense to cover this week. Pick: Tennessee Oakland @ Baltimore (-3): Baltimore has enjoyed one of the quietest 3-0 starts you’ll ever see. If they get to 4-0, they’ll start earning some national respect. Pick: Baltimore Denver @ Tampa Bay (+3): Wow! Absolutely no love for the Bucs. With an underrated run defense and a receiver that can physically dominate against Denver, I think this line is way too high, and I love the home dog in this spot. Pick: Tampa Bay Dallas @ San Francisco (+2): Whether or not Dez plays, I think Dak is capable enough with his set of quality backs and an improving defense to get the job done against bad teams. San Francisco is a bad team. Pick: Dallas New Orleans @ San Diego (-4.5): San Diego has quietly put together a nice little secondary, and the Saints… how do I put this?… have not. I’ll take the Bolts against Brees traveling cross-country. Pick: San Diego Los Angeles @ Arizona (-8): Carson Palmer has not been impressive the last few weeks, and Jeff Fisher has done a number on the division. I still think Arizona protects its turf with on the strength of its playmaking defense. Pick: Arizona Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-4.5): The Steelers’ D can be carved up by efficient QBs, but my guess is the offense gets back to peak explosion mode with Bell’s return. Pick: Pittsburgh New York Giants @ Minnesota (-5): Minnesota proved two weeks ago that its new stadium can get rowdy, but 5 is just too many points to be laying to a good (I think…) Giants team. Pick: New York Giants Good luck to you all this week. May your wallets go the way of Jared Lorenzen. Tweets by RealTheUnderdog

   
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