Apr 20, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Ryan Goins (17) is tagged out at home by Baltimore Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph (36) in the sixth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
After the 6-month death march that is the baseball regular season, the playoffs arrive as a breath of fresh air. It’s been proven that of all the professional sports, the least representative champion occurs in MLB. Though studies on the randomness of the postseason were conducted before the advent of the sudden death Wild Card game several years ago, It’s still mostly a crapshoot. That won’t stop idiots like myself from attempting barely-educated guesses as to what might happen over the next month.
After all, as onetime American sweetheart, Dane Cook obnoxiously professed, “THERE’S ONLY ONE OCTOBER!”
American League
Marcus Stroman and the Blue Jays take on Chris Tillman and the Orioles in tonight’s play-in game.
Wild Card Game: Baltimore Orioles (C. Tillman) @ Toronto Blue Jays (M. Stroman)
As far as trends go, neither of these AL East foes seems to have a leg up on the other. Toronto won the season series 10-9 and were 46-35 at Rogers Centre, but slumped to a losing record in the season’s last month. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 4 of its last 6 games (at Toronto and at New York) and their last five series on the road, but barely hung on to a Wild Card berth after a white-hot first half. Neither team has had much difficulty in significant samples against the opposing pitcher– the Orioles batters have an OPS of .843 against Stroman in 139 ABs, where Toronto has scorched Tillman to the tune of a .948 OPS in 314 at-bats. If each starting pitcher regresses to their fielder-independent performance, Stroman has a decided edge over Tillman, due in large part to the fact that the latter issues than a full walk more per 9 innings than the former. Stroman is susceptible to the long ball, however– his 16.5% HR/FB rate is among the worst among qualified starters, and he does have concerning splits. The Orioles have the slugging lefties to take advantage of this matchup in Matt Wieters, Hyun-Soo Kim and, of course, Chris Davis, who Stroman has fared well against over his career but who may be due for a big day against the diminutive B-Jay. On the other side, Tillman has enjoyed some good fortune in terms of balls staying in the yard (and those staying in play turning into outs). If that pattern holds, the Orioles have a very good chance of moving onto Texas. However, it’ll be much easier said than done against a torturous lineup starring Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Devon Travis, and Kevin Pillar (the latter three of whom have terrorized Tillman over his career). If Tillman can somehow limit the damage, he’ll hand the ball off to perhaps the league’s greatest weapon off the mound in the untouchable Zach Britton, who has as legitimate a case to win the AL’s Cy Young award as any reliever of recent vintage. If the game comes down to an arms race between Britton and Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, Brett Cecil and others, Buck Showalter has to feel very good about his chances.
Prediction: The Blue Jays’ lineup is second to none in the AL, posting 26.1 WAR despite losing some of their best hitters for big chunks of the season. They struggled with runners in scoring position all year and especially down the stretch, but they simply have too many big sticks to line up against a very hittable pitcher in Tillman. Playing at the raucous Rogers Centre gives them a clear edge going into this game. Winner: Toronto
ALDS: Boston Red Sox (Price – Porcello – Rodriguez – Buchholz/Pomeranz/Wright) vs. Cleveland Indians (Bauer – Kluber – Tomlin – Clevinger)
A case study in juxtaposition, these two teams’ construction could not be any more different. Boston splashily dove into free agency for David Price and Hanley Ramirez, and turned to the trade market for Porcello and Pomeranz. They’re led by two of the starriest veterans in the game in Pedroia and Ortiz, start four of the league’s biggest prospects in Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley and Benintendi, and play at one of the most romanticized stadiums in the country. The Indians quietly rely upon mostly homegrown talent– their biggest signing over the past several years has been DH Mike Napoli (deemed expendable by Boston, incidentally), and they were rejected as a trade destination by the biggest name on the market. Moreover, this is not the rotation Cleveland was planning on riding into the postseason, as injuries will keep Cy Young-caliber Carlos Carrasco out of the playoffs and uber-talented Danny Salazar reduced to bullpen work. Even the beat writers don’t think they can do this. However, what the Indians lack in big names, they more than make up for in the unsexy minutiae that defines winners in October. Per FanGraphs, their Def rating of 40 implies they’re significantly ahead of the AL playoff field (Boston at 28 is next highest), and they run the bases with similarly impressive effectiveness (their 17.1 BsR rating is again well ahead of the AL contenders, with Boston coming in second at 11.1). Tito maniacally platoons, shifts, and has no issue shuffling his bullpen repeatedly, taking advantage at every margin. Quite simply, Boston has no need to obsess over such margins; the Red Sox out-talent everyone on a near-nightly basis, and do many of the same little things well as Cleveland. Porcello’s star-turn makes this Red Sox team all the more dangerous, though they have issues in the back of their rotation (Pomeranz hasn’t been nearly as good after coming over from San Diego and appears ticketed to a relief role) and the bullpen (if Britton is the best weapon out of the ‘pen in the AL, Andrew Miller ranks a close second).
Prediction: This is the toughest potential series to call in the AL. Despite being duct-taped together, these Indians found a way to escape with the AL Central crown and critically retain home field advantage against the explosive and favored Red Sox. My guess is the winner comes down to whoever takes what should be a low-scoring Game 2 Kluber/Price duel, and that the Indians, against all odds and with the benefit of a short 5-game series where randomness often plays a role, find a way to do it– just as they have all season. Winner: Cleveland
ALDS: Toronto Blue Jays (Liriano – Estrada – Happ – Stroman – Sanchez) vs. Texas Rangers (Hamels – Darvish – Perez/Griffin/Lewis)
If chicks do indeed love the long ball, this series will have the ladies flocking to borders North and South. As prodigious as that Toronto lineup is, the Rangers can come in similar waves, though the latter utilizes a righty-heavy lineup. Where the Rangers have the clear leg up is in their rotation, led by a Darvish/Hamels combo that at face value can just about match anyone’s 1-2 starting punch and will be difficult to overcome should the Rangers move on to a 7-game series in which they can throw both twice. The smart money is that any game Darvish starts gives the Rangers a big advantage, but Hamels has been eminently hittable. Even more concerning is the former ace’s newfound tendency to give up home runs, as his career-high 14.0% HR/FB rate illustrates. At its core, this matchup boils down to one fact– aside from Darvish, the Blue Jays are just a better version of the Rangers, starring a lineup of mashers that should have won 94.2 wins per Baseball Prospectus’ pythagorean standings, where the Rangers were expected at a meager 79.1. The “home field advantage” of playing in sticky Arlington ought to not help Texas much either, given the Jays’ ability to club the ball. A matchup with the O’s would give the Rangers a much better chance, and I’d pick them to win that series, but that’s not the crux of this. Toronto scoots ahead.
Prediction: An underrated Toronto rotation keeps the Rangers bats at bay, and the Blue Jays move to the ALCS. Winner: Toronto
ALCS: Toronto Blue Jays (Liriano – Estrada – Happ – Stroman – Sanchez) vs. Cleveland Indians (Bauer – Kluber – Tomlin – Clevinger – Salazar?)
If it were to happen, a Jays-Tribe showdown would be an incredibly emotionally-charged environment. Toronto, in what is likely the last hurrah for the Bautista-Encarnacion era, looking to reach the World Series for the first time since Joe Carter; and the Indians, given virtually no chance after losing Michael Brantley, Carrasco, and Salazar over the course of the year, seeking to bring Cleveland its first baseball championship since 1948. Barring a complete Canadian meltdown, in order for the Tribe to overcome Toronto’s deadly lineup, one of two things will likely have to happen: (1) Salazar will have to start (he’s attempting to avoid his curveball and throw out of the bullpen with just two pitches in the ALDS) and give the Indians the type of shot in the arm they’ll need in a longer series, or (2) Kluber will have to go full Bumgarner and throw three times. Logically, the Indians lineup simply cannot hang over seven games against the Jays, even granting that they do all the little things better than their neighbors to the north.
Prediction: The Toronto careers of Bautista and Encarnacion fade to black, and behind Kluber, Lindor, Salazar, and a historic performance by Andrew Miller, the Indians win the pennant. Winner: Cleveland
Coming tomorrow: National League and World Series Picks
