Typically, 5-6 coaches get fired every offseason cycle. There are reports that number may swell to as many as 8-10 this season.
The question here isn’t: what coaches will be fired, but rather: which coaches deserve to be fired?
I’m going to run through the league with a FIRING SQUAD SERIES to make those determinations and potential executions. In the interest of length, we’re breaking this up into divisions, with the AFC East, NFC East, and NFC South already in the books. Today, we’ll be able to run through two separate divisions as well.
AFC NORTH
The “Bill Belichick Law” states that coaches who are OBVIOUS keepers will not go to trial. An overzealous prosector may go after John Harbaugh, but that feels like a bit of a stretch. Given the prosecution’s struggles so far, we won’t push that. Thus, Harbaugh (and Mike Tomlin) get a pass today.
CINCINNATI
The defendant: Marvin Lewis, 5-9 record, 123-112-3 all time with the team
The prosecution
After the failures of my predecessor, I intend to bring a whole new approach to this prosecutor’s office. I’m going to leave the politics aside, and focus on the matters at hand. After all, I’m a humble southerner who enjoys the simple pleasures in life: a cold beer in my hand, and an incompetent coach roasting on the open fire.
Which brings me to Marvin Lewis. There was a time, perhaps, when we would have praised and appreciated Mr. Lewis for stabilizing the Cincinnati organization. Of course, there was a time when I appreciated my AOL dial-up connection as well. But there was only so many times that sucker would crash out on me before I realized that I needed to upgrade. In that same vein, there’s only so many times this Bengals team can crap out before we all have to admit that an upgrade is necessary.
More than anything, we’ve come to realize that Mr. Lewis benefited greatly from some excellent coordinators around him. He initially struggled in Cincy (1 winning season in his first 6 years) before eventually being buoyed by two studs in Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer. Since they’ve left, the team has predictably and slowly sunken back into the depths of the AFC once again. The rapid decline in point differential is the most troubling of all – from +140 in 2015, to +10 in 2016, to -72 in 2017. There’s a hole in this ship about 100 points a year wide, and the Bengals can’t wait any longer to plug it up.
The defense
As mentioned by the prosecution, Marvin Lewis deserves credit for stabilizing this franchise over the years. Before his hiring in 2002, the Bengals were mired in a 55-137 stretch that saw them win an average of 4.6 games over a twelve-year period. He’s completely reshaped the front office, the scouting department, and the organization as a whole. Aside from Green Bay, no team in the NFL sustains itself on homegrown draft picks more.
If Lewis erred lately, it was trusting that system too much. He thought R1-R2 pick offensive tackles Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher would be ready to start by this, their third season. They weren’t. He thought in-house OC Ken Zampese would improve in this, his second season on the job. He didn’t. Lewis can learn from those mistakes and add some fresh blood and fresh talent around him. This team still has the talent to be a playoff contender with a few tweaks, and with Lewis at the helm.
The verdict
We the jury agree with the defense that fresh blood is needed, but more blood than he lets on. With all apologies and due respect to Marvin Lewis, we instruct the squad to raise their muskets and FIRE AWAY.
CLEVELAND
The defendant: Hue Jackson, 0-14 record, 1-29 all time with the team
The prosecution
Sports fans are savvy these days. Like Sting on a hot date, they don’t mind exercising patience and delayed gratification. Essentially, they “trust the process,” so long as they trust the leadership behind that process at the same time.
The Cleveland Browns’ latest rebuild clearly didn’t meet that criterion. Sure, Hue Jackson got saddled with a huge task and a huge rebuild, but there’s nothing in his resume so far that suggests that he’s capable of leading this team out of the muck and mire.
Worse yet, his biggest blind spot happens to be the most important one: his handling of the QB position. Every move the team has made lately has suggested that they have no clue how to elevate or develop QBs. DeShone Kizer may have been worth a boom/bust flier in R2, but the team took that flier and that lottery ticket and promptly wiped their ass with it: allowing him to take punishment (31 sacks in 430 pass attempts), and ruining his confidence by toggling him in and out of the lineup.
Afterwards, Mr. Jackson shifted the blame to Kizer, as he always does. If this coach has mastered anything, it’s deflation and scapegoating. He puts his foot in his mouth so many times that Rex Ryan masturbates to clips of his press conferences. He’s become an embarrassment to an organization that’s suffered too much embarrassment already. Please, make it stop.
The defense
If your goal as a franchise is to establish stability, the worst way to do that would be fire another head coach. Call it the Curse of Bill Belichick if you like, because after the team (albeit a different version of the “Browns”) axed him prematurely, Cleveland hasn’t found any sense of continuity on a staff yet. They’ve had a total of 9 head coaches — 7 of whom got fired in two seasons or less.
If you’re going to commit to a rebuild and “trust the process,” then you’re going to have to tolerate some ugly losses and some embarrassment along the way. That’s part of the “process.” But at the end of the day, the foundation still looks fertile here. After all, what would you prefer from Hue Jackson? A Jets-like season, and a spirited 5-6 wins that won’t mean anything at all? Or another clunker, which results in another # 1 pick (in addition to the Houston pick, which currently lands at # 4)?
We can’t judge Hue Jackson or this latest rebuild yet. Let’s give him one more year and his first stab at an actual franchise QB before we do.
The verdict
We the jury have decided (with the urging of Josh Rosen and his agent) to execute Hue Jackson before he gets his hands on another young QB. FIRE AWAY.
AFC SOUTH
There’s only one coach in this division who gets the Bill Belichick Law pass: Doug Marrone, who’s surprisingly led the Jaguars to a breakout year.
INDIANAPOLIS
The defendant: Chuck Pagano, 3-11 record, 52-42 all time with the team
The prosecution
Originally, we planned on stockpiling a whale ton of evidence for this case. We had our plucky office intern Danny compile exhibits of every single one of Chuck Pagano’s bungles (including that infamous fake punt.) Poor little fella dropped dead from exhaustion. RIP Danny.
What’s harder to find is evidence of Mr. Pagano’s virtues as a head coach. His specialty is the defensive side of the ball, but despite six offseasons to reshape his roster, that defense is still quite mediocre. In fact, they’ve totaled 22 sacks on the season so far, 2nd worst in the entire NFL.
You’d think that Mr. Pagano would be able to come up with ideas on how to pressure the QB by watching his opponents. After all, they have racked up 53 sacks on the year, MOST in the NFL. Part of that is Jacoby Brissett’s slow release, but this is also a team that allowed Andrew Luck to take 41 sacks himself the year prior.
Now, I’m no offensive guru (nor is Mr. Pagano), but you’d think that either of us would realize that protecting a generational franchise QB would be a paramount part of his job description. Instead, he’s allowed his offenses to take deep shots, and allowed his QB to take the defense’s best shots. This is no laughing matter, because it makes you wonder how much of Luck’s durability issues are the direct result of this lawed approach. Hopefully Luck comes back for 2018; hopefully, Mr. Pagano does not.
The defense
No doubt, it’s unfortunate that Andrew Luck got injured. Immediately, it doomed the entire 2017 season. Unless you’re Bill Belichick, no coach in the NFL is going to make the playoffs with a depth chart that leads off with the name “Scott Tolzien.” As a result, the team needed to rush in Jacoby Brissett. And hey, they did a serviceable job of getting Brissett ready to go on such short notice. The Colts started 2-3 and had some nice moments and some flashes from Brissett.
Given the expectations, Pagano’s 3-11 record is understandable. In fact, that record (coupled with his 8-8 record when Luck missed a lot of time in 2015, speaks to Pagano’s “virtue” as an NFL coach. His team still competes and fights for him, even when the odds are stacked against them. He hasn’t lost that locker room yet, and therefore he shouldn’t lose his job yet.
The verdict
We the jury have seen enough to make a ruling – and have seen too much of Chuck Pagano to wait any longer. We give the order to the squad to FIRE AWAY.
HOUSTON
the defendant: Bill O’Brien, 4-10 record, 31-31 all time with the team
the prosecution
Bill O’Brien is a brilliant coach and a true QB guru; if you don’t believe me, just ask him yourself. Through his entire Houston Texans tenure, he’s made a habit of skimping on his offensive staff. Like Hue Jackson, he’s decided that he doesn’t need an offensive coordinator to help him. He’s got all the answers himself.
Unfortunately for him, the results tell a different story. Through four seasons on the job, he’s opened with four different quarterbacks — Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2014, Brian Hoyer in 2015, Brock Osweiler in 2016, and Tom Savage in 2017. Notice I didn’t mention “Deshaun Watson” there, because Mr. O’Brien thought that Savage was his better bet to open Week 1. Considering he’d been coaching Savage for two seasons already, you’d think a “QB Guru” would be able to gauge the two a little better than that.
It’s also fair to question how beneficial his system truly is — or whether there’s much of a “system” at all. The best coaches (like Billy Boy’s former bosses in New England) manufacture mismatches for their stars and get them open spaces. Mr. O’Brien’s top plays include: 1) throwing a contested catch to DeAndre Hopkins and hoping he can battle his way to the ball and miraculously toe tap onto the sidelines, and 2) running Lamar Miller into a brick wall. That speedster of a running back has 1 carry of 20+ yards, in 220 attempts. That “system” sure isn’t helping him much.
You may think Mr. O’Brien’s had success in Houston — with three 9-7 seasons prior — but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In fact, his point differentials have been in steady decline (+65 to +26 to -49 to -61). That coincides with some injuries to his superstar J.J. Watt, who has bailed out this team time and time again. Sadly, Mr. O’Brien may not be able to count on that happening again; there’s no telling if All-Pro J.J. Watt will be walking through that building. If he isn’t the dominant force that he used to be, O’Brien’s flaws will be on full display.
The defense
The 2017 Houston Texans struggled. Shocker. This is a team that lost a Hall of Famer in J.J. Watt and a potential rookie of the year in Deshaun Watson. It’s no wonder that the team couldn’t rebound from there.
You may criticize Bill O’Brien for not starting Deshaun Watson from Week 1, but that’s irrelevant now. O’Brien wanted to show some patience and make sure that Watson would be able to hit the ground running (so he wouldn’t lose confidence like Kizer). Turns out Watson did that quicker than he anticipated — that’s a good sign, not a bad one. Going forward, Watson should be healthy and ready to fire away to DeAndre Hopkins, who’s regained his mojo and his status as a top 3 WR.
The defense took a step back this year, but should be better next season regardless of whether J.J. Watt is a DPOY candidate anymore or not. There are other good young pieces on that side of the ball, including Jadeveon Clowney and their rising star DC Mike Vrabel. If the offense and defense can click at the same time, this team still looks like a true threat for the playoffs for many years to come. O’Brien constructed a program that’s built to last here, and needs to stick around to shepherd it through.
The verdict
We the jury find in favor of Bill O’Brien (no matter what the media may suggest) and look forward to seeing him and a healthier Watson back together in 2018. KEEP HIM.
TENNESSEE
The defendant: Mike Mularkey, 8-6 record, 19-20 all time with the team
The prosecution
If Marvin Lewis feels like an outdated AOL dial-up, the Tennessee Titans feels like communicating with smoke signals. Mike Mularkey’s staff values experience, perhaps too much so. In fact, he currently employs the oldest defensive coordinator in the league (Dick LeBeau, 80) and the oldest offensive coordinator in the league (Terry Robiskie, 63) at the same time.
We won’t dare to disrespect LeBeau, especially because the ageless wonder’s unit is actually playing solid defense this year. However, the offensive issues of this team are a bigger concern and a bigger reason to move on from this coach.
Mr. Mularkey intended to bring back “smashmouth” football to the league behind a good offensive line and two power backs. That worked initially, but has started to yield diminishing returns. In fact, his franchise QB Marcus Mariota has started to regress to troubling degrees. At the moment, Mariota has thrown for 12 TDs against 14 ints, with a 62.9% completion percentage and a 79.7 QB rating that trails well behind most of the NFL. To make matters worse, he’s only rushed for 228 yards on the ground.
Essentially, Mr. Mularkey’s old school staff has managed to turn back the clock on the NFL and their quarterback at the same time. They’ve taken one of the most exciting young QB talents to come around in years and turned him into one of the worst starters in the league. 8-6 record or not, no one fears these Titans. No one respects these Titans. Heck, Vegas made them an underdog against a 3-10 San Francisco team, and the Titans promptly proved them right by dropping that game. The retro look was fun while it lasted, but now it’s time for this team to take a clear step forward.
The defense
Mike Mularkey’s gotten a lot of flak for his comments about “exotic smashmouth” football, but the Titans are well aware that phase was never meant to last. In fact, they drafted a WR in Corey Davis with the # 5 overall pick, intending to open up this offense and allow Marcus Mariota to start slinging it around the field more.
That plan hasn’t worked out yet because Corey Davis hasn’t been fully healthy yet. However, that doesn’t mean it’ll never happen. The defense cites Exhibit F, the rookie years of other superstar receivers. As rookies, neither Calvin Johnson nor Julio Jones cracked 1000 yards (logging 756 and 959 yards, respectively). If Corey Davis can take that famous sophomore leap, then he can provide the team with the improved passing game it needs. Davis has that type of potential; after all, this is a kid who logged 1400+ yards and 12+ TDs in college for three years in a row. Let’s wait to judge this offense until Davis can get healthy first.
They may have been blinded by the aura of Jimmy G., but this is a playoff team now that should only get better from here.
The verdict
We the jury appreciate Corey Davis’ upside and all, but we’re not betting an entire franchise on him. Marcus Mariota is still an exciting talent, which makes this potential job opening an appealing one. Let’s see what the kid can do with a new coach in his corner. Sorry, Mike Mularkey, it’s time to FIRE AWAY.
Scheduling update
We’re going to take a break in order for all this gun smoke to clear. With games this weekend and the holidays, we probably won’t return with this series until Wednesday or Thursday. We’ll come back with some new writers/prosecutors to finish up strong before the end of the season.
