Linebacker Lawrence Taylor won the league-wide MVP award in 1986. Since then, it’s been exclusively quarterbacks and running backs. That’s 23 trophies for QBs, 8 for RBs, and 0 for every other position on the field.
I don’t want to see MVP voters award a non-traditional candidate just to make a point or create a fun narrative, but I do want them to award a non-traditional candidate if he indeed does deserve it.
In my mind, this year may be that case. Let’s see why:
The case against the traditional candidates
QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott
Dak Prescott’s value to the Cowboys has been immeasurable.
In a normal year, a rookie stepping into the lineup, lighting it up, and leading their historic franchise to a 11-2 record would be the perfect narrative for an MVP. The problem here is: there are two of them.
There’s no question that they each have a case for MVP, especially Elliott. He leads the league in rushing, and is doing that at 4.9 yards per carry. He has 1,600 total yards already and should shoot past 2,000 even if they put their foot off the gas down the stretch.
But we have to remember: this is the Cowboys. The best offensive line in the league, especially in the run game. This is the same team that allowed Darren McFadden to crack 1000 yards last year (and rushed for 1890 as a team) despite a nightmare season. This is the same team that helped DeMarco Murray lead the league with 1845 rushing (with 2345 as a team) the year before. Given that, Elliott’s season is remarkable, but not wholly unexpected.
“Unexpected” defines Dak Prescott’s case, as the rookie shot up from third string to become the #1 QB in the league in terms of QBR. And while he’s played with amazing poise, we have to remember that he’s in a great situation in Dallas. The team dominates up front, and controls the clock with their running game. Dak has to make plays now and then, but he’s not carrying this team on his back.
The counter for that “anyone can do it” argument is the Cowboys terrible 2015 season,when they stumbled to 4-12 without Tony Romo. However, we have to remember that the Cowboys bungled that backup situation. After a few shaky weeks from Brandon Weeden (who wasn’t terrible, statistically speaking), they panicked and brought in an over-the-hill Matt Cassel off the street and expected him to be ready to start right away. It was a recipe for disaster, as Cassel performed much worse than Weeden. I would suggest that 4-12 is an outlier for this team, and shouldn’t be viewed as their base line.
QB Tom Brady
There was plenty of “Tom Brady for MVP!” chatter in the first half of the season when he came in like gangbusters. And sure, his 17/1 TD/int ratio is still amazing. That talk’s cooled down now, as Brady has looked more mortal without Rob Gronkowski. That, coupled with the missed 4 games (where the Patriots went 3-1) means Brady is unlikely to win it.
QB Derek Carr
Narrative Lane loves Derek Carr: he’s the king of the 4th quarter comeback, leading a moribund franchise back to the promised land.
Absolutely, Carr deserves consideration for making big plays when they matter most. The argument against him is: he hasn’t been as stellar otherwise. His yards per attempt rank 13th, his QB rating ranks 7th. Can you really give MVP to a player who’s been around a top 10 QB so far this season statistically? Cam Newton won in a similar fashion last year, but had amazing raw touchdown numbers on a 15-1 team. Carr’s not in that exact same boat.
QB Matt Ryan
There are a handful of QBs having a great year like Matt Stafford, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, etc. Statistically, Matt Ryan’s the best of the bunch in terms of efficiency.
But as with Brady, he’s not head and shoulders above the others. The Falcons’ 7-5 record isn’t inspiring much awe, either. Ryan’s a worthy winner, but not a terribly exciting winner.
The case for the non-traditional candidates
WR Julio Jones
Another knock against Matt Ryan’s candidacy is that he has Julio Jones on his side, arguably the best WR in the league.
To win MVP himself, Jones can’t just be “arguably” the best WR in the league: he has to CLEARLY be the best WR in the league. And you can make that argument.
Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards by a sizable margin (150 over #2 T.Y. Hilton). What’s even more impressive is that he’s doing that all over the field with remarkable efficiency. He stretches you deep, with 24 receptions over 20 yards — the most in the league. But he’s also a sure bet to grab a catch. Jones has 72 receptions on only 113 targets — compared to someone like Mike Evans who has 76 receptions on 139 targets.
There’s only one flaw in Julio Jones’ resume right now: touchdowns. Jones has 5 touchdowns on the season, which sags behind Mike Evans and others. Unfortunately for him (and his fantasy owners), that Andre Johnson/Julio Jones role in Kyle Shanahan’s offense never leads to as many TDs as you’d expect, but that’s clearly a problem for an MVP candidacy.
Jones isn’t going to win MVP with 5 scores, but if he can bump that up to double digits, I believe he has a very legitimate argument to win the award.
LB Von Miller
If Julio Jones has a case as the clear-cut best as his position, Von Miller can make the same argument as a rush linebacker. His 12.5 sacks leads the league by 2.0 at the moment, which is a sizable margin statistically.
While other pass rushers are making a big impact as well like Khalil Mack (10 sacks, 4 forced fumbles), Von Miller’s doing that for a dominant defense (unlike Mack), and doing that for a team without a good QB (unlike Mack). One could argue that Miller is keeping the Broncos afloat at 8-4.
For Miller to be considered, he needs to keep his clear edge in sacks, and lead the Broncos into the playoffs. If he does that, he should be considered a genuine MVP threat.
Conclusion
At the moment, I don’t think non-traditional MVPs like Julio Jones or Von Miller would win the award. In fact, I probably wouldn’t vote for them #1 myself. However, they’ve done enough so far to be in the discussion, and would both crack my top 5. If they continue to play well down the stretch, separate from their positional pack, and have some signature moments that lead to a playoff berth, then I hope voters award them over the glut of solid but traditional picks.
