Does Carlos Santana deserve $20 million per season?
In one of the first and only major free agent moves this offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies upgraded their offense by signing first baseman Carlos Santana to a three-year, $60 million contract. Widely known for his on-base skills, Santana owns a career .365 on-base percentage, and from 2011-2017, saw the most pitches of any hitter in baseball at 19,313 pitches. Additionally, Santana has always had solid power numbers, as one of two players alongside Joey Votto to average 20+ HR and 100+ BB over the last five seasons.
A 2017 Gold Glove Award finalist at first base, Santana was named the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year at his position this past season. With his skills at the plate, increasingly strong defensive play at first, and his postseason experience with the Indians, Santana made a ton of sense for a Phillies team that is filled with young, on the rise players such as Rhys Hoskins and J.P. Crawford.
However, Santana, whose contract’s AAV (Average annual value) is $20 million per season for the next three years, is also a career .249 hitter and has never made an All-Star appearance in his eight years in the MLB. Since 2012, there have been eleven other free agent contracts for offensive players in the MLB that have exceeded an AAV of $20 million; here is where Santana fits in amongst these contracts, sorted in chronological order. (Note: This list only includes free agent contracts, and not extensions, such as those given to Mike Trout, and Giancarlo Stanton)
2018: Carlos Santana, 3 Years, $60 million with the Philadelphia Phillies. AAV of $20 million
- 2017 Season: 23 HR, 79 RBI, .259/.363/.455, 90 R, 148 H, 37 2B, 88 BB, 94 K, 5 SB, 3.4 WAR, 154 Games
- Career Numbers, 2010-2017: 174 HR, 587 RBI, .249/.365/.810, 573 R, 995 H, 236 2B, 726 BB, 812 K, 40 SB, 24.5 WAR, 1116 G
2017: Yoenis Cespedes, 4 Years, $110 million with the New York Mets. AAV of $27.5 million
- 2016 Season: 31 HR, 86 RBI, .280/.354/.884, 72 R, 134 H, 25 2B, 51 BB, 108 K, 3 SB, 2.9 WAR, 132 Games
- Career Numbers, 2012-2016: 137 HR, 453 RBI, .272/.325/.494, 406 R, 149 H, 199 BB, 616 K, 40 SB, 18.7 WAR, 707 Games
2017: Edwin Encarnacion, 3 Years, $60 million with the Cleveland Indians. AAV of $20 million
- 2016 Season: 42 HR, 127 RBI, .263/.357/.529, 99 R, 158 H, 34 2B, 87 BB, 138 K, 2 SB, 3.7 WAR, 160 Games
- Career Numbers, 2005-2016: 310 HR, 942 RBI, .266/.352/.498, 829 R, 1439 H, 311 2B, 662 BB, 1004 K, 56 SB, 27.5 WAR, 1513 Games
2016: Jason Heyward, 8 years, $184 million with the Chicago Cubs. AAV of $23 million
- 2015 Season: 13 HR, 60 RBI, .293/.359/.439, 79 R, 160 H, 33 2B, 56 BB, 90 K, 23 SB, 6.5 WAR, 154 Games
- Career Numbers, 2010-2015: 97 HR, 352 RBI, .268/.353/.431, 446 R, 804 H, 158 2B, 371 BB, 634 K, 86 SB, 31.1 WAR, 835 Games
2016: Chris Davis, 7 Years, $161 million with the Baltimore Orioles. AAV of $23 million
- 2015 Season: 47 HR, 117 RBI, .262/.361/.562, 100 R, 150 H, 31 2B, 84 BB, 208 K, 2 SB, 5.2 WAR, 160 Games
- Career Numbers, 2008-2015: 203 HR, 549 RBI, .255/.330/.506, 474 R, 797 H, 168 2B, 323 BB, 1090 K, 15 SB, 14.7 WAR, 883 Games
2016: Justin Upton, 6 Years, $132.5 million with the Detroit Tigers. AAV of $22.083 million
- 2015 Season: 26 HR, 81 RBI, .251/.336/.454, 85 R, 136 H, 26 2B, 68 BB, 159 K, 19 SB, 4.4 WAR, 150 Games
- Career Numbers, 2007-2015: 190 HR, 616 RBI, .271/.352/.473, 694 R, 1175 H, 234 2B, 509 BB, 1185 K, 115 SB, 24.7 WAR, 1184 Games
2015: Hanley Ramirez, 4 Years, $88 million with the Boston Red Sox. AAV of $22 million
- 2014 Season: 13 HR, 71 RBI, .283/.369/.448, 64 R, 127 H, 35 2B, 56 BB, 84 K, 14 SB, 3.5 WAR, 128 Games
- Career Numbers, 2005-2014: 191 HR, 654 RBI, .300/.373/.500, 822 R, 1403 H, 203 2B, 506 BB, 875 K, 261 SB, 36.4 WAR, 1233 Games
2014: Robinson Cano, 10 Years, $240 million with the Seattle Mariners. AAV of $24 million
- 2013 Season: 27 HR, 107 RBI, .314/.383/.516, 81 R, 190 H, 41 2B, 65 BB, 85 K, 7 SB, 7.8 WAR, 160 Games
- Career Numbers, 2005-2013: 204 HR, 822 RBI, .309/.355/.504, 799 R, 1649 H, 375 2B, 350 BB, 689 K, 38 SB, 45.3 WAR, 1374 Games
2014: Jacoby Ellsbury, 7 Years, $153 million with the New York Yankees. AAV of $21.86 million
- 2013 Season: 9 HR, 53 RBI, .298/.355/.426, 92 R, 172 H, 31 2B, 8 3B, 47 BB, 92 K, 52 SB, 5.7 WAR, 134 Games
- Career Numbers, 2007-2013: 65 HR, 314 RBI, .297/.350/.439, 476 R, 865 H, 155 2B, 31 3B, 220 BB, 411 K, 241 SB, 21.1 WAR, 715 Games
2013: Josh Hamilton, 5 Years, $125 million with the Los Angeles Angels. AAV of $25 million
- 2012 Season: 43 HR, 128 RBI, .285/.354/.577, 103 R, 160 H, 31 2B, 60 BB, 162 K, 7 SB, 3.9 WAR, 148 Games
- Career Numbers, 2007-2012: 161 HR, 553 RBI, .304/.363/.549, 471 R, 858 H, 173 2B, 263 BB, 620 K, 43 SB, 24.8 WAR, 737 Games
2012: Albert Pujols, 10 years, $240 million with the Los Angeles Angels. AAV of $24 million
- 2011 Season: 37 HR, 99 RBI, .299/.366/.541, 105 R, 173 H, 29 2B, 61 BB, 58 K, 9 SB, 5.3 WAR, 147 Games
- Career Numbers, 2001-2011: 445 HR, 1329 RBI, .328/.420/.617, 1291 R, 2073 H, 455 2B, 975 BB, 704 K, 84 SB, 86.4 WAR, 1705 Games
2012: Prince Fielder, 9 Years, $214 million with the Detroit Tigers. AAV of $23.78 million
- 2011 Season: 38 HR, 120 RBI, .299/.415/.566, 95 R, 170 H, 36 2B, 107 BB, 106 K, 1 SB, 4.6 WAR, 162 Games
- Career Numbers, 2005-2011: 230 HR, 656 RBI, .282/.390/.540, 571 R, 996 H, 200 2B, 566 BB, 779 K, 16 SB, 16.8 WAR, 998 Games
Of the players with an AAV of $20 million, Santana appears to be right in the middle of the pack based on WAR, which is the measure of a player’s overall value; this allows Santana’s value to be compared to that of players who relied on speed and defense, such as Heyward and Ellsbury. This begs the following question; did the Phillies overpay to make a splash this offseason, or has the value of $20 million been deflated in the MLB with the rise in revenue and television deals? Only time will tell, but for the time being, Carlos Santana will remain one of the more interesting free agent signings in recent memory.
- TAGS
- $20M
- Carlos Santana
- Philadelphia Phillies
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