While the Jets may have slightly over-performed, things still weren’t pretty.
After one of the most exciting finishes in NFL history, we’re all thinking the exact same thing… “hey what’s going on with the Jets these days?”
That may not be totally true, but this series is rolling on anyway, with an eye to finish before the playoffs end.
NEW YORK JETS
It may be forgotten now, but the Jets — not the Browns — were the consensus favorite for the # 1 pick this offseason. In a preseason thread, I predicted a “3-13” record for them. Most of Reddit bashed me for being way too optimistic.
But then, a funny thing happened on the way to awfulness: the Jets played decently well. Like 3-2 well. Like Josh McCown to Robby Anderson long bomb well. The ultimate record of 5-11 doesn’t illustrate how much of a pleasant surprise the team was this season. Of course, that 5-11 record also suggests that there’s still a long way to go.
Step one: use an “in or out?” approach for QBs in the draft
While Josh McCown played well in John Morton’s offense this year, he’s not the long-term answer. Hell, he may not even play again in the NFL. It’s also fair to say that Bryce Petty has been weighed, measured, and found wanting. Christian Hackenberg hasn’t even been put on those scales yet, which is a troubling sign for a team that’s developed him for two years. Simply: the Jets need a new answer at QB. Their QB depth chart is as big of a blank slate as any team in the league.
Fortunately for them, they have a high pick in a draft that’s highlighted by several potential franchise QBs. Josh Rosen (UCLA), Sam Darnold (USC), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Josh Allen (Wyoming), Lamar Jackson (Louisville) and Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State) all have the tools to be considered R1 picks by some team or another.
The Jets won’t get their top choice of QB, so they’ll have to reassess their evaluation process. When evaluating QBs in the draft, their exact ranking of the top 6 matters less than a tier system. And in fact, there are only two tiers that matter. Is that QB worth a high R1 pick or not? Yes or no? That’s what I’d call an “in or out” approach to ranking QBs. After all, if you’re “IN” on selecting a QB in the top 10, that means you’re committing to 2-3 years of his development. You don’t necessarily need to think he’s a can’t-miss superstar, but you need to be convinced that he’s worth that type of investment. If you’re having doubts about his viability as a long-term starter, then you’re “OUT.” In that regard, it’s a simple “pass/fail” grading system.
There are 6 QBs to play that game with. The Jets need to decide how many of them they’d be “IN” on and would consider worthy of a top pick. If it’s actually 6 out of 6, then wonderful. They can sit back at # 6 and take any of the QBs that fall to them without batting an eye.
Of course, that’s unlikely. If the Jets only feel like they’re “IN!” on 3 of the 6, then they may have to get aggressive and move up to secure one. Right now, the teams that are likely to select a QB in front of them are CLE (picks 1 and 4), NYG (pick 2), and DEN (5). However, that doesn’t mean they’ll get the 4th QB on the board. IND (at pick 3) and CLE (at pick 4) become a prime candidate to trade down to a QB-needy team that would want to jump past the Jets.
So again, if the Jets feel like there are only 2-3 QBs that they’d trust, then they may have to move up to pick 3 or 4 (leapfrogging Denver) to secure that QB. If they only believe in 1 of the 6, then a trade up will get more pricey and difficult to manage (CLE or NYG won’t be open to a trade down unless they disagree on that particular QB), but it’s worth considering anyway. Getting a QB the team believes in has incredible value.
Conversely, there’s more danger in the Jets waiting around and settling for a QB that they don’t fully believe in. You’re either “in” or “out.”
Step two: find the right veteran QB to complement the roster
The Cleveland Browns in 2017 are the perfect lesson in what not to do when developing a QB. They selected DeShone Kizer in R2 and handed the reins over to him, but didn’t give him a single veteran to help mentor him (Brock Osweiler was cut quickly.) The Browns’ QB room operated with 3 very young and inexperienced quarterbacks — effectively the blind leading the blind.
The Jets can’t make that mistake. If they do draft a QB, then finding the right type of mentor will be crucial. And that perfect mentor depends on what QB they end up getting.
In my mind, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen are the only QBs in this particular class that would be viable Day 1 starters. Mayfield has the benefit of experience and age, while Rosen is extremely developed and polished for a true junior QB. If Mayfield or Rosen are the picks, then a pure backup is just fine. Free agent veterans who thrive in that capacity include Matt Moore, Chad Henne, and Jets’ legend Mark Sanchez.
Meanwhile, the other QBs in the class — especially Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson — are not ready to be Week 1 starters in my humble opinion. Forcing them on the field may ruin their confidence. If the Jets take one of those kids, then I’d recommend finding a true “bridge” QB who can start for 8 games or even a full season while the young kid develops his craft on the bench. If Josh McCown returns, he’d be ideal for that role. If he retires, I’d strongly consider signing Saints backup Chase Daniel in free agency. At 31, Daniel’s never gotten his real chance to shine yet, although he’s gotten some fat deals in the process. I happen to be a big fan of Daniel (and think he can be a solid starter) but even if you disagree there’s tangible value here because Daniel has experience in the New Orleans system that John Morton bases a lot of his passing offense on.
Now let’s look at the third alternative. Let’s say the Jets decide that they’re not going to draft any quarterback in the draft. They’ve played their “in or out” game and decided that they don’t trust their options. In that case, they’re going to need to find their long-term starter via free agency/trade instead.
There are some superstars in free agency that they can chase — Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G — but that may be a pipe dream. There are some mid-tier options — Alex Smith via trade, or Case Keenum — that can be decent starters, but perhaps not enough to push them into the playoffs. Perhaps their best bet may be a moderately priced QB with some upside in tank — A.J. McCarron or Teddy Bridgewater come to mind. Either McCarron or Bridgewater may relish the open lane to the starting job, and wouldn’t require any real guaranteed money beyond 2018. If they work out? Great. If not? You can start with a clean slate next season.
Step three: oh yeah, the rest of the roster
We’ve spent a ton of time discussing QBs already, but this isn’t a Jaguars-level team that’s one signal caller away from dominance. There are holes that need to be addressed elsewhere as well. Oddly enough, one area of concern is the defensive line. For the last several years, the Jets have housed a lot of great defensive linemen; however, that didn’t mean they’ve had a great defensive line as a whole. Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson (now gone), and Leonard Williams are all similar DT/DE hybrids. The lack of a pure edge rusher to complement them has been noticeable, as the team’s sack numbers have been low for a while now. Todd Bowles had been hired partly for his reputation as someone who brought heat, but it’s been a slow simmer for him as well. The team has averaged 27.5 sacks over the last two seasons — the lowest mark in the NFL.
The team has a few decent young options on the edge right now, including Jordan Jenkins and Kony Ealy, but they need to decide if any of them can truly be the difference maker that the unit needs. If not, investing a R1 or R2 pick in the position may be in their best interest.
And while the Jets already shipped Richardson off to Seattle, they may have to make a similar move regarding Mo Wilkerson as well. He hasn’t been the same dominant player since signing his massive extension. Whether that’s an issue of age, attitude, or scheme fit, it’s a problem regardless. The Jets’ first option should be to mend fences and restructure the contract, but if that’s not possible, then other moves need to be made. Wilkerson may have some lingering trade value, even if it’s just a salary dump. His former coach Mike Pettine just got hired as a DC in Green Bay, so perhaps they’d be interested in a reunion. If no takers can be found, the Jets may have to consider cutting Wilkerson outright and saving the $10 million on their books.
Another major area of need for the team remains their offensive line, particularly the guard position. Fortunately, guards can be found relatively cheaply in the draft, so taking a guard or two in the R3/R4 range could help the team up front.
The bottom line
Todd Bowles and his OC John Morton did an admirable job coaxing a 5-11 record out of this team. And there are some nice building blocks in place like their new stud safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. But make no mistake: this team won’t truly change their stars unless they can solve the QB issue once and for all.
