Is Justin Verlander capable of another Cy Young season?
The Tigers have been a frustrating team for their fanbase since they traded for Miguel Cabrera in 2007. They had a brief run as a top team in the AL, making it to the World Series in 2006, then started a run in 2011 from 2014 as a post season staple, making it to the ALCS 3 years in a row, and making it to another World Series in 2012 to the even year Giants. With some aging offensive stars in Cabrera and Martinez, as well as an infusion of young talent with Martinez and Castellanos, the Tigers have another short window in which to do some damage before the door closes entirely. With Verlander appearing to be back to his Cy Young levels during the run previously mentioned, and Cabrera continuing his dominant career and guiding the young players, the Tigers should be a team to be reckoned with this year.
1st Story: Does Justin Verlander have another Cy Young season?
From 2006 to 2012, even with a rough 2008, you would have been hard-pressed to find a more durable, dominant pitcher than Verlander. He had the most wins over this stretch, as well as the second best K/9 among pitchers making over 200 starts during this period. In 2013 and 2014, Verlander struggled. In 2014, he injured a core muscle in the offseason, and the injury lingered throughout much of the 2014 season. It was found out that the injury dramatically affected his mechanics, and in turn his production. He returned for the second half of 2015 and was productive for the Tigers. Then came 2016, in which Verlander returned to form. With a 16-9 record and a 3.04 ERA, 227.2 IP and 254 K’s, Verlander reminded Detroit and baseball how good he can be. Diving into some of his more advanced stats, Verlander’s fastball velocity rose to 93.7 MPH, not a huge jump from 2013 and 2014, but that small difference can be the difference between a fly ball and a home run. In addition, his slider MPH jumped two points, which helped sky rocket his wSL value, his slider value compared to an average one, to 17.8, a 14 point jump. In addition to this, his curveball returned to its previous “plus-plus” category.
With a healthy torso and improved slider, Verlander is set up to return to the ace and workhorse of the Tigers rotation. Expect good things from him this year. After receiving the most 1st place Cy Young votes in 2016, expect the same in 2017.
2nd Story: Can Miggy do it again?
Simply put, Miguel Cabrera has quite possibly been the best hitter of a generation. There’s an argument between himself and Pujols, but it’s definitely one of those two guys. In any year, that Miguel Cabrera has played more than 120 games, he’s hit over 25 home runs and had over 100 RBI’s. There is no question that the move to first base has improved his chances for an extended baseball career.
Miguel Cabrera had another stellar year from an advanced stat perspective, with a 49.2% medium hit percentage and a 41.1% hard hit percentage. Both in line with his best season totals, Cabrera doesn’t seem to be slowing down with age. His injury hampered year in 2015 seemed to be an exception to the rule. He’s primed for another 30+ HR year with a .300 plus batting average.
3rd Story: If the Tigers are out of the playoff race, can they attempt to rebuild?
Assuming that the Cleveland Indians win the AL central again, that means the Tigers will be locked into a battle for the Wild Card game. The following teams are also likely to be in contention for that same game: Orioles/Rangers/Mariners/Blue Jays. None of these teams are slouches by any stretch.
If the Tigers rotation is unable to support the offense, or the offense struggles to produce enough runs to win games, it’s easy to see the Tigers out of contention fairly quickly.
If that were to happen, could they start a rebuilding process?
That question becomes difficult to answer. The majority of the Tigers premier talent is over the age of 30. Not prime agents for trades, as the majority of what would be considered premier talent trades were centered on players under the age of 30. However, the Tigers have two chips that, regardless of age, that might be attractive to other teams: Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander.
There are multiple hurdles to these options:
1) Cabrera is 33, and Verlander is 34
2) Cabrera is owed an average of 30M until 2022, with vesting options, Verlander is owed 28M until 2019
Cabrera, being a first baseman older than age 30 presents a challenge for the Tigers to move him: teams don’t value first base as highly as they used to, nor do they tolerate sluggers with defensive issues as often as they used to. However, both of those things aside, Cabrera provides instant offense for a team in the win now mode, and his bat should play in the American League throughout most of his contract. He would not necessarily bring in blue chip prospects but could haul in a possible replacement or some other plus talent.
Verlander’s biggest drawback is that he is 34, and his average fastball velocity is down. However, a team in need of a starting pitcher whose career appears to be on the rebound may want to take serious note of Verlander. If the emergence of a swing and miss slider is any indication, Verlander should at least be effective through the remainder of his contract. It’s an unlikely move to happen, but there’s a chance that a playoff team that loses a 1-3 starter may start asking the Tigers if there’s a price, and may want to strongly consider paying that price.
