The Rockies have been a very good offensive team for multiple years, scoring over 700 runs in each of the last 3 seasons. The biggest dilemma they have faced, they’ve allowed over 800 runs during the same span. Last season, they used the majority of their draft picks on pitching. They’ve made a commitment to rebuilding their pitching staff and reducing the number of runs that are allowed, giving the offensive strength they’ve built a chance to flourish.
1st storyline: First Story… Trevor Story
What is there really left to say about Story that hasn’t already been said? From his explosive first games to his excellent season, his spring training battle for a spot, to his season-ending injury, there’s little left to cover on Story.
Except, how will he perform in what should be his first full year? Some of the more advanced stats suggest he may have some struggles this year after some teams watch the tape and research his approach. His hard and medium percentage were very good, at 44.9% and 40.8% respectively. The number that may suggest that he’ll have some struggles are the pull percentages. 40% of his balls put in play were pulled, while 33.1% were hit up the middle. This leaves 26.9% that were hit towards the opposite field. Likely opposing pitchers will attack the outer half with off speed or attack him inside after slowing his bat down. In addition, he struck out 137 times in 97 games. This is a pretty prodigious amount; scaled over the whole season, Story was on track to strike out approximately 217 times over the course of a full season.
However, there is a history of Story improving and suggesting that he’s primed to take off. Over the last few years, he’s reduced his strikeout rate to a more palatable number. In 2013, he had 183 SO’s in 130 games, similar to the pace discussed before. By 2015, in 69 games at AA and 61 games at AAA, Story had 141 strike outs. This pace was reduced to around 175, which is way more palatable for the Rockies.
2nd storyline: Is this the year the Gonzalez gets moved or gets back to the playoffs?
Will this be the year that Carlos Gonzalez gets moved?
Carlos Gonzalez has been a fun trade talk for multiple years in a row. With his superior offensive talents, when healthy, and good defensive skills, he’s always been an attractive trade bait piece. In his years in the majors, whenever Gonzalez was able to play in over 100 games, he hit 20+ home runs. He’s also had good averages in all of those years, hitting .300. This kind of production from a corner outfield spot is not necessarily something to trade top prospects for, but in a pinch, he’s going to be an excellent upgrade over the vast majority of bench players. Look for a contender that may need an outfield upgrade near the trade deadline.
The largest issue with Gonzalez has been his durability. The seasons above were not necessarily truly full seasons. The most Gonzalez played after his 2010 season until 2015 was 135 games in 2012. However, he was able to play in 153 games in 2015 and 150 games in 2016. He reduced the number of stolen bases to almost none, and this appears to have dramatically improved his number of games played. With durability issues addressed, this may be a good year to move Gonzalez to support the rebuilding effort the Rockies have been making.
3rd storyline: How do the Rockies follow up their 2016 offensive season?
The Rockies have been in the Top 10 in offensive runs scored for the last five years in a row. Until last year, they hadn’t been able to crack 800 runs for the year.
This year’s Rockies team figures to be able to repeat and build upon last year’s success. Nolan
Arenado has quickly become one of the best third basemen in the league. With a full season of Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Charlie Blackmon, the Rockies are likely to have more sustained offensive success. In addition to a group that has become a solid core, the Rockies were able to get solid production from Mark Reynolds, Gerardo Parra, and Ryan Raburn.
Of the core group of players, Story had the lowest average at .272. However, this was also Story’s rookie year, and he’s got a very high ceiling. He’s likely to replace Tulowitzki in the hearts of the Rockies fan base. A top of the lineup sending out Story, Blackmon, LeMahieu, Arenado, and Gonzalez will consistently give opposing pitchers a reason to focus more.
If all of these players can repeat similar performances or improve on them, the Rockies should contend for the most runs scored in the league, as well as fight for a Wild Card spot.
