Here’s an update on those, with some new players rising to the top, and some new teams sinking toward the bottom.
Could Deshaun Watson finally give the Browns their franchise quarterback?
(1) Cleveland: QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson
It hasn’t been a stellar start for Watson or the Clemson Tigers, but I still see Watson as the presumptive #1 pick. There are a boatload of other QBs who can rise up and contend with him, led by Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer. However, I expect Kizer to return to ND (especially after such a disappointing season for the team), as well as other top QB prospects like UNC’s Mitch Trubitsky. These are still young QBs who don’t have quite the experience that Watson does. If they come back to school, they’ll be joining a potentially loaded 2018 class that could include UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Washington’s Jake Browning.
(2) San Francisco: OLB Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
Chip Kelly and the Niners may take a shot on one of those raw young QBs if they declare for the draft, but if they don’t, Myles Garrett is a hell of a consolation prize. To me, he’s the clear cut #1 prospect in the class. The 6’5″ 260 beast is a little dinged up right now, but presuming he gets through the season healthy, he’ll be the best pass-rushing prospect since fellow Aggie Von Miller.
(3) Chicago: OT Cam Robinson, Alabama
Big Cam Robinson has started to have some doubters about his ability to hold up on the blind side, but I still think he can be an NFL starter there. Worst case, he can be a mauler on the right side. Either way, the Bears’ tackle spot has been a problem area for a few years now, and the team could be prudent by building up through the trenches before addressing a long-term decision at QB.
(4) Miami: DT Jonathan Allen, Alabama
Yet another team that would consider a QB if the young kids come out. But if Kizer and co. stay in school, they’ll most likely be looking elsewhere. For the Dolphins, that could any number of areas. Given all their investments in the defensive line, it’s especially disappointing that they can’t dominate up front. Bama’s big Jonathan Allen would help immediately, as a 295-pound plugger who has surprising pass rush juice as well.
(5) Jacksonville: DE Charles Harris, Missouri
Harris has been rising up draft boards, and ranks as my personal #1 4-3 end right now. Although he still needs to add bulk (at 6’3″ 255), he’s a disruptive pass rusher who’s ferocious off the end. He’d pair well with Dante Fowler to give the young Jags’ defense the pressure it needs up front.
(6) New Orleans: DB Jabrill Peppers, Michigan
Defensive line or pass-rusher would be ideal for New Orleans, but the Saints could throw a dart at their defensive depth chart and find a hole somewhere. Peppers has the ability to play as an in-the-box safety (like the Saints’ Kenny Vaccaro, incidentally), but also has the versatility to be a speedy linebacker as well.
(7) New York Jets: OLB Tim Williams, Alabama
It’s been a very disappointing year for Todd Bowles and this defense, and part of the reason for that is a lack of a rusher off the edge. Although he has a limited body of work, Tim Williams could be the top 3-4 rusher outside of Myles Garrett.
(8) San Diego: DB Jamal Adams, LSU
Adams mirrors Jabrill Peppers as a big safety that can also play as a nickel linebacker, as a “monster back.” The Chargers could use that type of help on their back end, as their safeties have had a playmaking void there since the decline and departure of Eric Weddle.
(9) New York Giants: RB Leonard Fournette, LSU
I’d rarely recommend a running back this high, but this is the rare circumstance of an elite talent and a huge need. The Giants could really use a power back like Fournette to take pressure off Eli Manning and passing game.
(10) Tennessee: LB Reuben Foster, Alabama
The Titans could use a big playmaker at WR like Clemson’s Mike Williams, but they haven’t had much luck with WRs in the draft lately (and the NFL hasn’t had much luck with “Mike Williams‘s.” Instead, they could find a solid centerpiece for their improving defense in Rueben Foster. A three-down backer, he reminds me of fellow Crimson Tide stud C.J. Mosley. In this scenario, he’d mark the 4th Alabama player in the top 10.
More notes
— Miami (Fla.) QB Brad Kaaya and Ole Miss’ Chad Kelly have been floated as potential Round 1 picks, but I believe they have to show some more consistency to take advantage of their status right now. If they can’t, they may find themselves upstaged by younger QBs.
— Despite a sluggish start, Notre Dame has two blue-chip o-line prospects in big Mike McGlinchey and guard Quenton Nelson. It wouldn’t surprise me if McGlinchey rises all the way into Top 10 consideration: he has the toughness and length (at 6’7″) of a Taylor Decker / Taylor Lewan type.
— I didn’t find a place in this top 10 for Michigan State’s Malik McDowell, who’s seen as a surefire top ten pick. My one concern for him is that he may be too lean (at 276) for a true defensive tackle, but he’s certainly in contention in that range.
— I also couldn’t find a spot for Tennessee’ DE Derek Barnett, either, but he’s fast rising as a prospect. He’s a high-effort and highly-productive player who’s jumped past FSU’s DeMarcus Walker on my list of 4-3 ends.
Sleeper watch
— I haven’t heard much talk about Western Michigan’s WR Corey Davis, but that could change soon. Under young and charismatic coach P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan has cracked the AP top 25, and much of that can be credited to their playmaker Davis. If he continues to raise his profile, I wouldn’t be surprised if he surpassed Mike Williams and USC’s JuJu Smith-Schuster as the #1 WR in the entire class.
