Josh Rosen comes in as our #1 overall prospect.
Many fans grumble when you suggest the NFL Combine matters in your evaluation of draft prospects. After all, why would you care about the results of a glorified track meet over what happened on the football field?
For my sake, the NFL Combine matters because I’m not a real draft scout and don’t pretend to be. I haven’t been sitting at home splicing up game film and watching every snap of UT-San Antonio this year. Sorry.
But that said, it’s still fun to evaluate prospects, even in an amateur way. So with that in mind, here would be my top 20 prospects prior to the Combine, which may indeed change the list.
(1) QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
Josh Rosen isn’t the “best” prospect in the class, but the value of the QB position bumps him up to the top of the rankings in terms of draft value. Although he’s only a true junior (meaning he spent 3 years on campus), he displays sound mechanics and an advanced understanding of the position. He may not be a generational talent who can carry a franchise on his back, but he has the skill set that should be a “plus” starter for 10+ years. pro comp: Matt Ryan (ATL)
(2) DE Bradley Chubb, North Carolina State
I love seeing “repeat success” in prospects, because it becomes a lot harder to dominate the competition once your opponents have an entire offseason to gameplan for you. Bradley Chubb did exactly that: after logging 21.0 tackles for loss and 10.0 sacks as a junior, he returned to school and did the same thing again (23.0 TFL, 10.0 sacks.) He also has solid size at 6’4″ 270 that makes him a strong two-way player. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Chubb isn’t at least a quality starter. pro comp: Everson Griffen (MIN)
(3) DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
Another quality that I seek in prospects is “immediate production.” If you can step right in as a true freshman and excel (especially at a stacked program like Alabama) then it bodes well for your transition into the NFL. The versatile Minkah Fitzpatrick had three immediate quality years with the Crimson Tide, displaying the ability to play corner or stand out at free safety. There are some concerns that he won’t test like an elite athlete, which may cause him to slip more into the 5-10 range. pro comp: Eric Weddle (BAL)
(4) OG Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame
Many experts consider Quenton Nelson the top overall prospect in terms of skill set, with his positional value being the only mark downgrading him outside the top 3. He’s an incredible run blocker with years of starting experience. pro comp: Marshall Yanda (BAL).
(5) RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
If you’re debating between overall skill at the position, Quenton Nelson and Saquon Barkley would be 1 and 2 in some order, but like Nelson, he’s downgraded for the positional value here. But make no mistake: Barkley looks like one of the best RB prospects of the decade, with a sturdy frame, power, and receiving skills. pro comp: LaDainian Tomlinson
(6) DB Derwin James, Florida State
Like fellow safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James burst onto the scene as a true freshman and looked like a superstar, racking up 91 tackles and 4.5 sacks. An injury cost him his sophomore year (and maybe a half step of speed), but he still has incredible potential as a 6’3″ burst of lightning. He’s not a clean fit for every club, but he’s the type of player that you can build an entire defense around. pro comp: Troy Polamalu Polamalu is too high of a expectation, but I was struggling to find a player with a similar skill set.
(7) LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
Roq Smith may be undersized, but he displays every other characteristic that you’d want in a modern linebacker. He also has a high football IQ and leadership traits, illustrated by Georgia’s playoff run. pro comp: C.J. Mosley (BAL)
(8) DT Maurice Hurst, Michigan
Right now, Mo Hurst may be the most underrated R1 prospect in my mind. He’s a little undersized at 6’2″ 285, but he’s a good pass rusher who’s active in the run game as well. Give me a player like that any day, no matter how much he weighs. pro comp: Geno Atkins (CIN)
(9) QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Baker Mayfield is a really difficult player to evaluate. Based on his resume and production on the field, he’s off the charts, with a 70% completion percentage and 11+ yards per attempt. Still, you worry about his height (6’1″) and ability to win in a pro style offense. pro comp: Case Keenum (the ‘good’ 2017 version)
(10) OLB Harold Landry, Boston College
As a junior, Harold Landry looked like a pass rushing natural, with 22.0 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks. Unlike Bradley Chubb, he couldn’t repeat that success, logging just 8.5 TFL and 5.0 sacks in an injury plagued senior year. Was he simply banged up? Or was he exposed as an average athlete? Time will tell. pro comp: Jabaal Sheard (IND)
(11) QB Sam Darnold, USC
I really struggle picking between Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, and it may come down to team “fit” and circumstance. Darnold has a bigger frame and perhaps more longterm upside, but he’s not pro ready right now and needs time to iron out his mechanics. pro comp: Jameis Winston
(12) CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
Another “undersized” prospect, Denzel Ward simply has the coverage ability and the speed to shine anyway. He should step right into a starting lineup (perhaps as a nickel corner) and contribute in a positive way. pro comp: Janoris Jenkins
(13) DE Marcus Davenport, UT-San Antonio
A monstrous 6’7″ 260 end, Marcus Davenport has beastly potential on paper. It’ll be interesting to see how he tests, because he’s not a polished pass rusher right now. If he’s not a super athlete, he has the chance to be over-drafted. If he is, then he has top 10 potential. pro comp: Michael Johnson (CIN)
(14) DT Da’Ron Payne, Alabama
It’s hard to justify a lofty ranking for Da’Ron Payne based on stats, because he resisted just ONE tackle for loss this year. However, I’d defend Payne anyway based on the “eye test.” He displays the athleticism and feet that should make him a good starter in the NFL. The reason I have him ranked over a player like Washington’s Vita Vea (who looked better in college) is that he’s still only 20, compared to 23 years old for Vea. In a few years time, Payne may be the better player. pro comp: Linval Joseph (MIN)
(14) LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
Unlike his teammate Minkah Fitzpatrick, Rashaan Evans didn’t have immediate success at Alabama. But given the stacked roster, that’s understandable. When Evans did play, he displayed solid range and pass-rushing abilities. pro comp: Lawrence Timmons (PIT)
(15) DB Jessie Bates III, Wake Forest
Jessie Bates surprised the draft community by declaring after his redshirt sophomore year, but now that they’ve had time to study him, the higher he’s rising the charts. He’s a natural ballhawk (with 6 ints in two years) with a lot of upside. pro comp: Glover Quin (DET)
(16) OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
As a tall 6’7″ (white) starter in the Midwest, Mike McGlinchey naturally draws comps to successful R1 picks like Taylor Lewan and Taylor Decker. McGlinchey doesn’t have that type of athleticism, but he does demonstrate a similar type of work ethic and toughness that typically translates to a long NFL career. pro comp: Jared Veldheer
(17) WR Christian Kirk, Texas A&M
Although Christian Kirk doesn’t have the prototypical build of a # 1 WR at 5’11” and 200 pounds, he’s simply a natural football player who can succeed all over the field. He had 1000 yards as a true freshman, and I’d expect him to make a quick contribution to an NFL team as well. pro comp: Doug Baldwin
(18) DB Ronnie Harrison, Alabama
Hey, this Alabama team wasn’t too shabby, huh? Ronnie Harrison’s just another big safety from the Nick Saban factory that projects as a good starter in the NFL. pro comp: Landon Collins. I wouldn’t say he’s quite as good of a prospect as Collins, but he’s close enough to merit the comp.
(19) WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
Calvin Ridley has been mocked in the top 10, but I fear that may be due to “need” more so than value. I like Ridley and would view him as quite similar to Christian Kirk in terms of an NFL-ready skill set, but neither are the type of physical freaks that you’d usually need to see in a top 10 WR. pro comp: Stefon Diggs
(20) OT Orlando Brown Jr., Oklahoma
The massive Orlando Brown Jr. (son of the Orlando Brown who was temporarily blinded by a flag) still needs refinement on his craft and some reshaping on his body. That said, it’s easy to see him as a mauling right tackle. pro comp: Rick Wagner (DET)
Notable prospects who didn’t make the cut
QB LAMAR JACKSON, Louisville. I have no doubt that Lamar Jackson can be a terrifying opponent and a potential Pro Bowl caliber starter. My only concern is: for how long? QBs who run as much as he does don’t usually last long in the NFL (with the thicker Cam Newton as a notable exception.)
QB JOSH ALLEN, Wyoming. I can understand the “upside” here given Josh Allen‘s massive frame and massive arm, but taking a QB with that little production in college in the top 10 would terrify me. I’d much rather see him go later in R1 to a team that would protect him and develop him on the bench.
CB JOSHUA JACKSON, Iowa. Based on his strong play last season, Joshua Jackson should be a top 20 pick. However, it was his only true standout year which always makes me a little skittish.
DE ARDEN KEY, LSU. The explosive and long-armed Key may blow up athletic tests, but the “key” (GET IT?!) will be determining his off-the-field work habits. He missed some time for personal reasons that will need to be explained more fully.
