The Reds have had a few great players come through, but between injuries and poor performances lining up, the Reds haven’t been able to capitalize on some of their higher evaluated talent. With the group aging, or having been traded, the Reds have fully committed to a rebuild of the team. How will this a few bright spots help?
1st storyline: Will Adam Duvall perform in his second full year?
We look at the biggest stories surrounding the Cincinnati Reds.
Duvall showed that he has some real offensive potential with 33 HR in his first full MLB season. Throughout his minor league career he had numerous seasons with 20+ home runs. In addition to that, he had a few seasons with an OBP around .100 points higher than his batting average. Considering how the game is evolving, and teams placing a much higher value on OBP, it will be imperative that Duvall improve his OBP again closer to his better seasons in the minors.
Duvall reduced his strikeout rate after his second year from 11.5% to around 7-8% in full seasons in the minors and majors. This will definitely help improve his performance in the majors. The important part will be for him to raise his average to around .270 to go along with his 20+ HR power.
With the Reds at the cusp of a rebuild, Duvall can provide plenty of power from the left field spot, and support the young pitching staff that’s poised to take a big step forward. He’s 28, going to be 29 this year, and he’s ready to follow up his breakout season with a very good year.
2nd storyline: Will the bullpen be better or worse?
Last season, the Reds bullpen was, for a lack of a better term, miserable. Checking the team stats, the Reds had the second highest bullpen ERA, the highest BB/9, and the highest HR/9. As of March 12, the projected players that will return to the bullpen from 2016 are Cingrani, Iglesias, Lorenzen, Wood, and Peralta. Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson are currently projected to start as part of the 6 man rotation.
It’s likely that with the average age of the current projected bullpen around 27, this mix of veteran pitchers and young arms will provide an interesting dynamic. As a rebuilding team, the Reds are likely focused on a few things from their young arms: a reduction in walks and a reduction in home runs allowed. As with all teams, these two things out of the bullpen are extremely detrimental. Not only does allowing home runs out of the bullpen on a consistent basis allow inherited runners to score, walking players allows a team to run up a pitch count and gain free baserunners. For comparison, 4 of the top 10 bullpens in terms of BB/9 were in the playoffs.
The bottom line, the Reds changed up their bullpen dramatically, and have a chance to revamp it with more young arms. This provides a huge chance for improvement, as well as evaluation of the young talent that exists in the system. The bullpen should improve dramatically this year.
3rd storyline: Who can the Reds trade to further the rebuilding efforts?
During the 2015 offseason and during the 2016 season the Reds were able to move both Aroldis Chapman and Jay Bruce and were able to get a return of 5 players, and so far through the 2017 offseason the Reds have been able to turn Dan Straily and Brandon Phillips for 5 more players. Retooling with these trades has got the Reds ranked 10th on BleacherReport’s 2017 report, the same ranking they received in 2016. Some of their top prospects, Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett haven’t progressed as quickly as some other top prospects, so that hasn’t helped the ranking.
As they continue down the rebuilding road, it’s important to identify assets they currently have that could net them a good return. There are two players that really fit the bill for trades: Anthony DeSclafini and Billy Hamilton.
Despite that DeSclafini is starting the season on the DL, DeSclafini will still be the number one pitcher on the staff when he returns. At age 26, he’s still ready to reach his prime. He’s under team control for a couple more years, leaving him with some incredible value in what will be a comparatively weak starting pitcher free agent class. If DeSclafini can come back from his strain and can be very productive, there’s a decent shot that he could gain them some great prospects in return.
Billy Hamilton was heralded for his incredible speed all throughout his minor league career. There were many worries when he finally arrived at the major league level that he would produce offensively. After his first full year in the MLB, he hit .250. While not ideal, it was acceptable for a rookie season and he did steal 56 bases. He followed that season up with a .226 and .260 respectively. In addition, he’s been unable to keep his OBP up high enough to fully satisfy expectations. Those things being said, he’s still got an incredible speed that cannot be taught. Teams lacking speed will be tempted to take a shot on Hamilton. He may not gain the best prospects, but he’ll be able to help bring back some prospects, or could be a nice addition for a larger trade.
