The idea of finding a successor to veteran QBs has been a hot topic this offseason, and will continue to heat up closer to the draft. For many franchises (focusing on Arizona, L.A. Chargers, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, and Pittsburgh here) the question will be: should we find an heir now? Or wait until later?
Of course, the prototype that everyone points to is Green Bay drafting Aaron Rodgers in 2005, even though Brett Favre was still on the roster. That situation was uglier and more awkward than people remember, but it all worked out for the best. After sitting for a few seasons, Rodgers was ready to jump right into the starting role and thrive. The Pack have had a Pro Bowl caliber QB under center for decades.
The Patriots appear to have played this same situation well with 2nd round pick Jimmy Garoppolo. Either Jimmy G. can succeed Tom Brady, or they can trade him for a premium price.
But there’s a cost attached with drafting a young QB before it’s necessary. The Giants drafted Ryan Nassib (at one time floated as a 1st round talent) in the 4th round in 2013. The Saints drafted Garrett Grayson in the 3rd round in 2015. Neither has contributed a meaningful snap since. Nassib’s contract has expired and the Giants don’t appear to be interested in having him back. Grayson may be squeezed off the roster himself. He wasn’t the heir apparent; in fact, he didn’t even serve as the team’s primary backup, either. Rather than take a QB to develop, Giants and the Saints could have used those mid-round picks on other positions and actually given their veteran QB a better chance to compete.
That type of calculus is what we’ll examine here for a few key teams. Should they draft a QB now? Or utilize that pick on another position instead? Let’s go through that now.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
current QB
It wasn’t too long ago — 2015, to be precise — that Carson Palmer was among the best QBs in the entire league. His raw stats were good (4671 yards, 35 TDs, 11 int) but his advanced stats were even better, including a 104.6 QB rating and a 79.3 QBR. Arguably, he was the best QB in the entire NFL that year.
In hindsight, that sparkling season may have been more of an aberration than we realized at the time. Last year, Palmer came back down to Earth, logging 4233 yards, 26 TDs, 14 interceptions (+9 fumbles) and advanced stats more in line with his career averages (87.2 QB rating, 60.4 QBR).
Palmer will turn 38 this December, which should be a warning zone for a player with an injury history and a propensity to take some big hits. The Cardinals have a potential “out” in his contract after this year, at which point they’d only owe him $6 million in dead money.
backup QBs
Right now the Cards have two backups on the roster: Drew Stanton and Zac Dysert. Stanton has lasted longer in the NFL than many expected, but he’s a stopgap starter at best. He can allow you to hang on for a month or maybe two at most, but it’d be difficult to imagine him even serving as a “bridge QB” in the future.
verdict
Given that confluence of factors (Palmer’s age, his contract, the lack of a starting-level backup), the Cardinals need for an heir QB is HIGH. Ideally, they would draft a QB that would be able to take over in 2018 if need be. If Palmer struggles this year, they can cut him and turn the reins over.
Armed with the #13 pick in the draft, the Cardinals may have a shot at the top signal callers in Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and UNC’s Mitchell Trubisky. If either of them fall, I would encourage the team to select one. They could sit in 2017, with an eye to jump into the lineup in 2018.
Normally I wouldn’t encourage a team with a chance at contention like the Cardinals to use a 1st round pick on a non-starter, but the Cards have a lot of young talent (like David Johnson and Patrick Peterson) that allows their window to stay open longer than some other teams on the list. They can win now, but they can also be competitive in 3-4 years, presuming they solve this QB question.
I would strongly suggest the Cardinals draft a QB this year. Of course, the presence of Bruce Arians means that the Cardinals don’t necessarily have to take one high in the draft. Arians fancies himself a QB guru, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he’d rather roll the dice on a lower pick and develop him. He tried to do that with Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas (a QB whose game tape showed that he shouldn’t be a QB), but he can always take another swing at it. Virginia Tech’s new QB Jerod Evans has some of Logan Thomas’ physical traits, but better instincts and accuracy. Cal’s Davis Webb has the size and arm strength to intrigue Arians. Ole Miss’ Chad Kelly would be an extremely risky pick given his off-the-field trouble, but he does have on-the-field upside. Any of those QBs would be interesting adds for Arians and his staff if they can’t nab a top-flight prospect in Round 1.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
current QB
In December, Philip Rivers will turn 36 years old, which makes it fair to wonder about his future. His play on the field also merits that concern as well.
Rivers had a huge boost of efficiency when Mike McCoy came on board and installed a quick-hitting offense that played to Rivers’ strengths. His completion percentage shined at 69.5%, 66.5%, and 66.1% over those first three years. However, in 2016, that number sagged all the way down to 60.4%. Rivers’ propensity to make mistakes also popped up again, as he threw 21 lame duck interceptions and coughed up 7 fumbles.
Despite the head coaching change to Anthony Lynn, the Chargers kept their offensive coordinator in Ken Whisenhunt. That shows some commitment to Rivers, but doesn’t preclude them from taking a QB for the future. Rivers’ contract allows them an “out” in 2019, which should be the target window to develop a new starter. But the question, given Rivers’ spotty play in 2016, is whether the team can wait that long.
backup QBs
What may be more concerning for the Chargers’ than Rivers’ turnovers is their backup QB situation. Right now, their primary backup is Kellen Clemens, who’s no spring chicken himself at 33. 3rd stringer Mike Bercovici has a good arm, but he’s never been looked at as anything more than roster filler.
verdict
The Chargers have a double need here. Not only should they be looking for a starter to develop in 2019, but they also could use a better backup QB for right now. Given that, I’d also grade their need to draft a QB as HIGH.
In this case, I don’t think that needs to come in Round 1 or even Round 2. There are other issues with the team that can be addressed instead. However, I would absolutely target a QB in Round 3 or Round 4, with the hope that they can develop into a high-level backup, if not a starter for 2019.
The perfect solution, on paper, could be Miami (Fla.) QB Brad Kaaya. Kaaya’s NFL stock has stunted some, to the point where he could go in Round 3 or so. He has some limits to his arm strength, but he’s an experienced three year starter with good intangibles. If the Chargers’ draft Kaaya, he may be their best backup QB from day one. In theory, he could be groomed for a chance to start in 2019.
Kaaya’s strengths match up well with Rivers, so the team wouldn’t need to cater their system to fit him, either. And while it’s not a compelling reason to draft him, Kaaya would be a good fit for Hollywood. Kaaya’s also an L.A. native whose mother was an actress (Felicia from “Bye Felicia” in Friday).
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
current QB
Of all the QBs mentioned here, Drew Brees is the oldest, as he recently turned 38. That said, the old man has shown no signs of slowing down.
Brees continues to dominate on the field, throwing for 5208 yards, 37 TDs, and 15 interceptions last year. His completion percentage cracked 70%, and his QBR topped 70 (an extremely high mark) for the 7th consecutive year.
Brees has had some nagging and minor injuries over the years, but hasn’t shown any signs that he’s breaking down. He’s the most similar to Tom Brady in that way, where his accuracy and game management should allow him to play at a high level for a few more years.
The most compelling argument to move on from Brees could his contract, which may need to be re-worked again. Still, there’s no reason to push him out the door for that.
backup QBs
The Saints also have a strong QB room at the moment. They just signed Chase Daniel (a personal favorite of mine) who will look much better without that overpriced Eagles’ contract hanging over his head. Daniel could be a top 5 backup right now. The team also has Luke McCown (a solid veteran) and young Garrett Grayson, although I doubt they’ll all survive training camp.
verdict
Even if Brees is 38, I would still rank this need as LOW. He’s playing at a high level, and should continue to do that for the next 2 years at least.
In a worst case scenario (like a lengthy injury), Chase Daniel can hold down the fort for a month or two and keep their offense chugging along. He has experience in the system, and some similar traits to Brees.
More than anything, the Saints have more pressing needs on the rest of their roster. They may use both of their first-round picks on their defense, which should be a bigger priority. Their window for contention may only be another year or two, so they should try to add as much talent as they can around Brees — not replace him.
NEW YORK GIANTS
current QB
Ever since their draft day trade, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers will always be linked together. Obviously Eli has the benefit of two Super Bowl rings, but the two are probably more similar than that would suggest.
In fact, their last few years have mirrored each other closely. Eli Manning had a disastrous 2013 (18 TDs and 27 ints), but benefited from the arrival of a new coordinator in Ben McAdoo. McAdoo’s Green Bay system helped boost Eli’s efficiency, allowing him to have two strong years in a row (30 TDs and 14 ints in 2014, 35 TDs and 14 ints in 2015).
But like Rivers, Manning slumped back down in 2016. He tossed 16 interceptions (and had 7 fumbles), but also couldn’t move the ball down the field much without Beckham breaking a long one. His 6.73 yards per attempt was his lowest total since 2008.
Manning’s contract allows the Giants a solid “out” in 2019, which would be two seasons from now. That appears to be a good target to find and develop a QB. Chances are, Manning should be healthy by then — amazingly, he’s started all 16 games for 12 years in a row — but his play should only get more inconsistent over time.
backup QBs
With Ryan Nassib not working out as the backup, the Giants turned to another kid from that same draft class — Geno Smith.
Local fans may scoff at that given Geno’s poor play with the Jets, but I actually believe it was a solid move by the Giants. Geno Smith is still only 26, but already has 33 starts under his belt. Given his modest price, he’s a good combination of experience+upside.
verdict
As mentioned, the Giants should be targeting 2019 as the year to move on from Eli Manning. I’d rank their need to find a new QB as a MEDIUM level. But does that mean they need to draft his heir now?
I don’t think so. As mediocre as Eli Manning may be, I doubt the team could draft a QB that would play better in the next year or two.
Rather than waste a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick on a QB this year, I’d let Geno Smith have his chance to be the backup and show you something. Chances are, he’ll top out as a reserve, but there’s a slight chance (given his college pedigree) that he can improve with better coaching and a better system.
If Geno Smith doesn’t work out (which is likely), the team can target a QB in the 2018 draft. That QB can then develop behind Eli Manning (who presumably will stay healthy) and then take the reins in 2019, the perfect time to cut the cord with Eli.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
current QB
The final member of that famous draft class, Ben Roethlisberger has had Eli Manning’s title success, but not his durability. In fact, Big Ben has played 16 games in just 3 of his 14 years in the league. That wear and tear has caught up with him, perhaps more mentality than physically. He’s already floated the idea of retirement.
I don’t think Roethlisberger will step away from the game (or the millions) right now, but the end of the road is clearly on his mind. Given that, a succession plan should be in the back of the Steelers’ minds as well.
The window could be similar to Eli Manning’s. Roethlisberger is a year younger at 35, but has a lot of tread on those tires. His contract falls in the same line, where the team has an “out” in 2019.
If Roethlisberger’s body holds up, he should be able to play out two more seasons as a starter. He played well in 2016 (3819 yards, 29 TDs, 13 int in 14 games) and should presumably continue that this year and next.
backup QBs
27-year-old backup Landry Jones never found much interest or starting opportunities in free agency, so he’ll be back with the Steelers this year. He’ll be joined by Zach Mettenberger, another young gun whose college hype has surpassed his NFL success.
Still, I like that combination at backup. Landry Jones and Mettenberger both have some upside left in the tank that may be developed into something more. Chances are, that won’t happen, but it’s worth an attempt. In the meantime, Jones has enough starting experience to serve as a fallback option if Roethlisberger gets injured. The need to find a backup QB is not high here.
verdict
Roethlisberger is a better QB than Eli Manning right now, but the two have a very similar situation that ought to be treated the same way. Both franchises should be targeting 2019 as the time to move on.
But like the Giants and Eli Manning, that move can wait until 2018. Roethlisberger should be able to make it through 2017 fine (and if he misses a game or two, Landry Jones will be OK). The need right now for a QB is MEDIUM at best (and possibly even “low”). This is a team that can wait.
In 2018, the team can draft an heir apparent. That QB can soak up at least one year on the bench behind Roethlisberger, before jumping onto the field in 2019 or 2020. But because that’s still two years away, I would prefer the Steelers to use their mid-round picks this year on other positions, so that Big Ben can have a better team around him, and have one or two more shots at another ring.
