Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis looks on from the sideline in the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the San Diego Chargers, Sunday, Jan. 5, 2014, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)
One of my favorite topics to post about is NFL coaches on the hot seat — debating in the pre-season who will get fired, debating mid-season who may get hired in their place, et cetera. In general, it’s speculative nonsense.
But now that we’re halfway through the season, we have a clearer picture on which coaches are on the bubble. In this post, I’ll try to assess how many more wins it will take to keep a coach’s job. We’ll review 11 coaches who could be on the hot seat, and how they’ll need to perform to retain those duties in 2016.
At 0-9 Hue Jackson is on the hot seat, but he shouldn’t be too worried.
Hue Jackson, Cleveland, 0-9 record
Coaches generally don’t get fired after one year on the job. In their recent history, the Cleveland Browns organization have shown a willingness to buck that trend — firing Rob Chudzinski after a 4-12 rookie season. However, there are reasons to believe that this is a different type of Cleveland Browns front office — at least, in terms of their approach and patience. They’re basically a Moneyball team, committed to a full long-term rebuild. Trust the Process, Browns fans. Given those parameters, those expectations, and the dearth of talent on the roster right now, I don’t think that the team will jettison Hue Jackson. However, an 0-16 season would be an embarrassment that could cause them to reconsider. Let’s say Hue needs to go: 1-15
Jim Caldwell, Detroit, 5-4 record
Matt Stafford and the Lions have played pretty well this season, although I don’t think any Lions fan would credit Jim Caldwell with that improvement. OC Jim Bob Cooter tends to earn most of that acclaim, and DC Teryl Austin is a respected coordinator in his own right. In fact, Caldwell’s greatest danger could be a rebellion in-ranks, should new GM Bob Quinn decide to squeeze out Caldwell and promote Cooter or Austin if he gets wind that they could leave elsewhere, a la Tampa Bay with Dirk Koetter and the N.Y. Giants with Ben McAdoo this year. Barring that, I doubt that Quinn will have much reason to shake up this ship. I’d say Caldwell needs to go: 8-8 to merit another year on the job, and another year on the hot seat.
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati, 3-4-1 record
The Bengals have disappointed this season so far given their expectations; personally, I had them making the Super Bowl. All that said, I don’t think Marvin Lewis should get the axe for that. He’s done a remarkable job turning this sorry excuse for a franchise into one of the most stable in the NFL over the last decade. The only reason that I worry for Lewis’ sake is the rumor that he’s considered retirement (and was set to hand the reins over to Hue Jackson in 2017 if he wanted). Reports like that suggest that Lewis may be getting tired of himself, just as some Bengals fans are getting tired of him. Still, if he wants to stay on the sidelines, his resume should allow him to. I’d say he needs to go: 7-8-1 to continue his reign.
Mike Mularkey, Tennessee, 4-5 record
Unlike the Bengals, the Titans have been a pleasant surprise so far this season. Experts mocked Mike Mularkey’s mysterious “exotic smashmouth” offense, but we’ve seen exactly what he meant by that. He’s going to rely on his good o-line and running backs to take pressure off Marcus Mariota (whose sacks are down to 12 so far). Dick LeBeau‘s defense has also shown signs of improvement. While many, including myself, considered Mularkey a placeholder coach for this year, he’s earned himself another year on the job, barring a collapse down the stretch. I’d say he needs to go: 7-9 to ensure that.
Rex Ryan, Buffalo, 4-4 record
I had written Rex Ryan off prior to the year, and especially after Week 2 and their Greg Roman scapegoating, so kudos to Rex and Rob for jumpstarting their franchise after that point. Their 4-4 record is solid, but their +40 point differential and improvements to the pass rush are even more promising. There’s still the potential for collapse down the stretch (tonight at Seattle then Week 11 at Cincy may put them at 4-6 in a hurry). I’d say Rex needs to go: 7-9to prove us haters wrong.
Todd Bowles, N.Y. Jets, 3-6 record
Here’s one prediction that I can actually take some semblance of pride in. Before the year, I suggested that Todd Bowles was overrated based on a flukey 10-6 year, and that he’d actually get fired after a disastrous 2016. The team has certainly looked shaky on all fronts; you expected some regression from Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the problems on defense (and reports of d-linemen missing meetings) are alarming. There’s a chance Bowles has lost this team for good. Even though he’s only in his second year, I still think he needs a solid finish to stick around. I’d say he needs to go: 7-9 to keep his job. He may be able to survive 6-10, but it’d be dicey.
John Fox, Chicago, 2-6 record
Sometimes, when folks buy a broken-down old house, they think it’d just be easier to do a complete tear down. Of course, rebuilding from scratch always proves to be more complicated than you expected. That’s true for John Fox and his Bears coaching staff, which thought they could overhaul their defense (which is going all right under Vic Fangio) at the same time as finding new offensive playmakers (not going so great). RB Jordan Howard showed signs of life, tearing through Minnesota’s defense, but he’ll need to keep more of the same to make sure Foxy lasts ’til Season 3. This is a respected coaching staff that will be given the benefit of the doubt, but in my mind Fox needs to go: 5-11to make sure that he’s around to see that rebuild completed.
Jeff Fisher, Los Angeles, 3-5 record
Early reports that Jeff Fisher already received a contract extension may have been exaggerated, in which case Fisher is in for a world of danger. He’s in the middle of his 5th year on the job, and still hasn’t registered a winning season (or even gone 8-8 for that matter). I suspect his reasons for shelving Jared Goff are partly because he doesn’t think he’s ready, but also partly because he doesn’t want to lose his own job. If he keeps Goff in bubble wrap, the ownership may decide to give him the benefit of the doubt. If Goff plays (and looks overwhelmed), they’ll lose faith in the entire operation. To be honest, I’m not even sure if Goff can save his job right now. Even if he looks OK, is Jeff Fisher really the guru you want guiding a young QB? I’d say Fisher needs to go: 8-8 (which would be 5-3 down the stretch) to survive.
Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis, 4-5 record
Like Fisher, there’s little Pagano can do to curb his lack of momentum on the job right now. Andrew Luck is back and playing pretty well, but the team’s still struggling with a 3-5 record. When you play with a stud QB in an easy division, that simply won’t do. Patience is wearing thin in Indy, so Pagano’s going to need a hot finish to last until 2017. I say he needs to go: 9-7 to stay in town.
Mike McCoy, San Diego, 4-5 record
Unlike Jeff Fisher and Chuck Pagano, Mike McCoy’s actually impressed me with his team’s play this year. Sure, they’re still below .500 and still losing some close games, but anyone who watches the Chargers can see a team that’s genuinely solid. Their running game’s improved, and their defense has as well. If this team was in the AFC South, they’d probably be winning right now. The stink is still on Mike McCoy, though, so he’ll need to keep showing improvement to make believers out of the organization. I think he needs to go: 8-8 to make sure he keeps his job. They may excuse 7-9 (as they should), but he’s still swimming upstream.
Gus Bradley, Jacksonville, 2-6 record
Sean Penn could be cast as Gus Bradley soon, because the Jags coach is basically a Dead Man Walking. Personally, I’d blame fantasy football for inflating expectations of Blake Bortles and this team (which wasn’t nearly as good as the raw stats showed). Unless Bortles shows a major improvement down the stretch — unlikely, presuming they still play Quarters 1, 2, and 3 — Bradley’s almost surely gone. He needs to go: 7-9 to last, which would mark a 5-3 finish.
