I know that the Dion Waiters love is partly exaggerated for effect, but there are genuinely people on here who believe he’s going to be a star player and that the Miami Heat got a steal for a mere $52 million.
That very well may happen (I trust Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra’s knowledge on basketball more than my own), but count me among the extreme skeptics so far. In fact, I’d say there’s about an 80% chance Waiters disappoints on the deal.
Here’s why:
He doesn’t get to the free throw line
Dion Waiters lit it up last year for 15.8 points per game, a key reason why the Miami Heat were able to go on such a great run.
But one aspect of Waiters’ game that he didn’t improve on was his ability to get to the free throw line. He attempted only 2.8 free throw shots per game, converting at an ugly 64.6% clip.
It’s a missed opportunity, to say the least. Those aptly named free throws are cheap points that can be relied on as consistent throughout the year, regardless of a shooting slump or not. The best scorers in the league get to the line — often. Of the top 40 scorers in the NBA, not one was below 2.8 attempts per game. And usually, they’re a lot higher than that. Russell Westbrook scored 31.6 points thanks in part to 10.4 FT attempts per game. James Harden got 10.9. Even little Isaiah Thomas attempted 8.5.
When you don’t get to the free throw line often, you can still be an elite scorer. Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving averaged 25 points per game on less than 5 FT attempts. Bradley Beal and C.J. McCollum averaged 23 points per game on less than 4.5 FT attempts per night. And most comforting of all, perhaps, is that Klay Thompson averaged 22.3 despite a mere 2.8 attempts (which is tied with Dion Waiters, but in more minutes.)
But you know what those five guards have in common? They’re all EXCELLENT shooters and have been consistent throughout their careers. And that’s exactly the problem. When you don’t get to the line, you become dependent on your shot. That may work for them, but it’s going to be harder for Waiters.
His shot may regress
Okay, so Dion Waiters may be more reliant on his shot than other scorers. That’s okay — the dude makes shots, right? He hit 39.5% from three last season, a stellar mark for any guard.
Last season. 46 games, total. For his career, Waiters has been seriously inconsistent from beyond the arc. The 39.5% is by far his career high, with a career mark of only 34.6%.
You can make the argument that he’s simply been improving lately — going from 25.6% to 31.9% to 35.8% to 39.5% over these last four seasons. However, he’s had hot stretches here and there before (he shot 36.8% as a second-year player, the season right before that 25.6%). I suspect that he’ll regress from last season, and settle in around 35-36%. Overall that’s not a bad mark by any means, but it’s lower than those other top guards I mentioned and would put a ceiling on his scoring ability.
And it certainly puts a ceiling on his efficiency as well. The scariest part of Dion Waiters to me is: even last year, even in that spectacular season where he shot a career high from three: he STILL wasn’t efficient. His true shooting percentage was 50.7%, a mediocre mark. So even if Waiters keeps up his “hot” play, he’s still not a good scorer in terms of efficiency. If he regresses, he could be a nightmare.
The bottom line
Look, the Miami Heat didn’t sign Waiters to an ENORMOUS contract — the $13 million a year is reasonable. He can be a solid rotational player and a creator off the bench. If he improves, like a lot of guards in their mid-20s do, perhaps he can become a legitimately good starter as well.
But I’m writing this because of the crazy (in my mind) reaction to Waiters on this sub, claiming this was a massive steal and that Waiters could have gotten so much more! on the open market. I’m skeptical about that and skeptical about Waiters chances of living up to this contract. But hey, that’s me. You should probably trust Pat Riley more.
