One of the most frequent questions when discussing potential inductees into the Baseball Hall of Fame is the following; it is more important to have an incredible, 8-10 year peak, or to be a solid player for a 15-20 year time period? With that in mind, I present to you player A, and his average statistics for his career.
Player A 162 Game Average: 42 HR, 132 RBI, .298/.374/.571, 105 Runs, 185 H, 42 2B, 10 SB, 74 BB, 100 KPlayer A Seasonal Average: 32 HR, 103 RBI, .295/.369/.564, 81 R, 144 H, 32 2B, 7 SB, 57 BB, 80 K
Player A Ten Year Peak, 1991-2000: 37 HR, 120 RBI, .298/.374/.571, 95 runs, 167 H, 38 2B, 9 SB, 67 BB, 90 K.
Now let me ask you this; if a player for an entire decade, averaged 37 HR, 120 RBI, 38 2B, and 95 runs scored per season, wouldn’t you think they would be at least mentioned in the Hall of Fame discussion? After all, that is a peak that is downright incredible.
Next, let’s compare Player A’s career numbers to three other players, who will go unnamed for the time being.
Player A Career: 1539 Games, 381 HR, 1239 RBI, .295/.369/.564, 974 R, 1726 H, 389 2B, 144 OPS+
Player B Career: 2089 Games, 382 HR, 1451 RBI, .298/.352/.502, 1249 R, 2452 H, 373 2B, 128 OPS+
Player C Career: 2124 Games, 379 HR, 1365 RBI, .297/.350/.499, 1131 R, 2351 H, 417 2B, 133 OPS+
Player D Career: 2777 Games, 379 HR, 1652 RBI, .279/.341/.463, 1272 R, 2732 H, 505 2B, 122 OPS+
When taking into account that players B-D played anywhere from 500-1200 more games than Player A, Player A’s career compares very favorably, with the highest OPS+ of the group. Player B is Hall of Famer Jim Rice; Player C is Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda, and Player D is Hall of Famer Tony Perez. At this point, you probably want to know who Player A is; we’ll get there, but not quite yet.
What if I told you that Player A made five consecutive All-Star teams, and won five Silver Slugger Awards in a six-year span. What if I also told you that Player A is the only player to hit 50 home runs and 50 doubles in a season, and was one of six players in MLB history to have nine consecutive 100 RBI seasons. Statistics aside, what if I also told you that Player A was the first MLB player to sign a contract worth an AAV of $10 million, and that on October 1, 2000, he homered in his final major league at-bat, before retiring at the age of 33 despite finishing the year with 23 HR, 103 RBI, and a .817 OPS.
Not only did Player A do all the above, but he also led the league in RBI, extra-base hits, and total bases three times. Player A also led the league in SLG twice (his .564 SLG% is 13th all-time) and despite his incredible power only struck out over 100 times twice in his career.
One thing that Hall of Fame voters love to see is an MVP Award. Player A finished in the top three of the MVP voting every season from 1994-1996, but when you compare his numbers to the winner of the AL MVP in 1995 (Player A finished second) it is clear who should have been the winner, as Player A comes out on top in nearly every category. It should be noted that in 1995, Player A led the league in runs scored, doubles, home runs, runs batted in, slugging, and total bases, yet somehow the AL MVP avoided his grasp.
1995 Player A: 6.9 WAR, 143 Games, 121 Runs, 173 H, 50 HR, 126 RBI, 50 2B, 73 BB, 80 K .317/.401/.690
1995 AL MVP: 4.3 WAR, 140 Games, 98 Runs, 165 H, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 28 2B, 68 BB, 150 K, .300/.388/.575
The final point I will make about Player A before revealing his name is this; when looking at Bill James’ Hall of Statistics, the Average Hall of Famer has a Blank Ink score of 27, a Gray Ink score of 144, and a Hall of Fame Monitor score of 100. Player A finished his career with a Black Ink score of 28, a Gray Ink score of 137, and a Hall of Fame Monitor score of 135, all of which only enhance the argument that Player deserves to be in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
If you haven’t already figured out who Player A is based on the information above, I’ll spell out for you right now: Player A is Albert “Joey” Belle, an outfielder who despite his career numbers, fell off the Hall of Fame ballot during his second appearance in 2007 with 3.5% of the vote. Yes, it may be true that Belle was not well liked during his career, refusing to meet with the media before games, getting caught with a corked bat, and railroading over Brewers infielder Fernando Vina for getting his way of the base path in 1996. Despite all this, Belle had a ten-year peak that was as good if not better than many players already in the Baseball Hall of Fame, and his career numbers are comparable to many players in Cooperstown despite the fact that they played as many as 22 seasons, while Belle only played ten full years in the MLB, and twelve overall.
Not only that, but Belle clearly had some gas left in the tank at the end of his career, as not many players would walk away at the age of 33 after finish with 23 HR, and 103 RBI. Had Belle played through his hip injuries for another 2-3 seasons and was able to eclipse 400 HR and 2000 hits with another 274 hits and 19 HR, I have no doubt in my mind history would be kinder to Belle because of the “round number” totals he would have eclipsed. Given that the BBWA have long feuded with Belle, it is unlikely that he will sniff induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame anytime soon. But if the writers stepped back and looked at on-field production, they would realize what a crime it was that they let arguably the best hitter of the 1990s fall of their ballot after only two years.
