Where will Shohei Otani end up?
It’s been a busy offseason for the San Francisco Giants, despite being yet to make any significant moves. While most of their fans have been refreshing Twitter at a constant rate, for rumors about the team’s courtship of superstar Giancarlo Stanton, on Sunday evening The Athletic writer Ken Rosenthal broke some more news involving the team.
The Giants are on a short list (and still getting shorter) of teams that meet the fancy of the heralded Japanese player, Shohei Otani. I call him a player because characterizing him as either just a hitter or just a pitcher would be false. He’s nicknamed the “Japanese Babe Ruth”, for his ability to both hit and pitch, and do both at a high level. For any team, signing one player with the ability to contribute on both ends of the field would be a huge victory. The Giants are in need of hitting; slugging the fewest home runs in the majors last season, and their pitching has fallen from grace after years of it being a cornerstone.
Whether the Giants are successful in their pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton remains to be seen, but regardless of whether Stanton accepts a trade to the bay, Otani is a priority for the Giants. Otani and Stanton have dominated the news cycle so far this offseason, with all 30 teams front office’s waiting on the stars decisions, so for the Giants to potentially rope in the two biggest names would be unheralded.
Even bringing in just one of the two would be considered a successful offseason for a team looking to bounce back.
But where does Otani fit in with the Giants?
The answer is practically anywhere. The Giants have reportedly mapped out a plan for the phenom to pitch and play the field when he’s not pitching, which is a demand of Otani’s.
Even with workhorse Madison Bumgarner returning to the rotation after a dirt-bike cost him most of 2017, the Giants are in need of starting pitching.
After a Cy Young caliber 2016 season, Johnny Cueto struggled mightily in 2017, pitching to a 4.82 ERA. Cueto declined to opt-out of his contract several weeks ago, and the Giants are surely banking on a return to form for a pitcher they invested 6 years and $130 million in. Cueto has a great chance to rebound, his 2017 season was an anomaly compared to his career numbers, where he sports a 3.33 career ERA. Still, at 32 years old when the season begins, nothing is guaranteed. The Giants aren’t just looking to bounce back to .500, they’re looking to bounce back into contention, and they’ll need an effective Cueto to make this happen.
When it comes to effectiveness, Matt Moore is the last pitcher Giants fans want to talk about. After being traded to the Giants in the summer of 2016, Moore gave the front office reason to believe he could be a productive member of the staff for the next few years. Like Cueto, Moore’s 2017 was a complete failure. The 28-year old tied for the National League lead with 15 losses, and they weren’t hard luck losses either, Moore finished with a 5.52 ERA in 31 starts.
Though not as abysmal as the seasons of Cueto and Moore, Jeff Samardzija must improve on his 2017 season. Samardzija had as odd of a season imaginable when you dig deeper into his numbers. On the surface, his 9-15 with a 4.42 ERA doesn’t suggest any productivity, tying teammate Moore for the NL loss lead. Somehow though, he had one of the best strikeout/walk rates in major league history. In addition to leading the NL in innings pitched, “The Shark” struck out 205 batters while walking just 32. In fact, he only allowed two more walks than home runs in 2016, a testament to his pounding the strike zone, and lack of ability to keep the ball in the park. Perhaps Samardzija can pitch off the plate a bit more in 2018, I’m sure the Giants would happily take more walks if it means less runs allowed.
As for the 5th starter, as of now, the Giants aren’t committing to one. Both Ty Blach and Chris Stratton showed flashes of brilliance in 2017 but were also marred by stretches of mediocrity. Signing Otani would bump them out of the rotation, but both showed effectiveness when pitching out of the bullpen in parts of last year.
All in all, the Giants rotation has a lot of uncertainty right now. The way Cueto, Moore, and Samardzija struggled last year, it seems likely that at least one bounces back majorly in 2018 if not all. Expecting all three to be successful is wishful thinking though, and the Giants are looking for some certainty. With Bumgarner returning, a rotation of he, Otani, and any success from the rest of the rotation would put the Giants in great shape to contend.
Scarily though, the Giants pitching rotation feels like less of an issue than their lineup.
With the exception of Buster Posey, a majority of the Giants bats fell flat last season. Joe Panik (who may very well be a Marlin come April) used a hot final two months to put up respectable counting numbers, but it doesn’t negate his injuries and under-performing through the first 4 months of the season.
As seems to be the case most seasons, a successful campaign by Brandon Belt was cut short by injury problems, as he continues to deal with concussions issues that have placed him on the Disabled List three separate times in his career.
It was a struggle for Brandon Crawford on and off the field in 2017, as his family sadly dealt with the loss of his sister-in-law. Crawford will never make excuses for himself, but acknowledged his head wasn’t always in the game in 2017, and understandably so.
Entering the final year of his contract with the Giants, Hunter Pence’s years as the 2000’s iron man seem behind him. Injuries have caught up with the former All-Star, and though Giants fans are hoping for one last strong season from one of their most beloved players of all time, father time is undefeated.
Though it was only two seasons ago that the Giants competed in the playoffs, the landscape of the National League West has completely changed since then. Now, not only will the Giants have to fight the defending National League champion Dodgers in order to make the playoffs, but they’ll also have to contend with the Diamondbacks and Rockies. With the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all making the playoffs in 2017, the Giants will have their work cut out for them if they’re to return to the postseason in 2018.
Despite going without a World Series title from 1954 to 2010, this is a franchise that now expects to win. Another season like 2017 won’t be tolerated in San Francisco, by the fans, the front office, or the players. In their winning years though, the division was never as strong as it figures to be in 2018. The Giants reached the playoffs in those winning years, despite stretches of losing, sometimes even entire season half’s of under-performance (see 2014). Those Giants proved that once you’re in the playoffs, anything is possible, but just getting to the playoffs will be a Goliath-like task for the Giants next season.
The coaching staff has undergone a complete makeover, with the exception of future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy. But how much longer will Bochy, who has been dealing with heart issues over the last few seasons, stay at the helm if the team isn’t succeeding?
With Otani, the Giants at least stand a chance to level the playing field next season. They know what they’re up against; they know going from bad to good won’t be enough. They need to go from bad to great, and even then it may not enough reach the postseason.
The team knows how it feels to be the runner-up for major free agents. In the last three years alone, the Giants have found themselves the second or third finishers for Jon Lester, David Price, and Zack Greinke. Despite those near misses, the Giants were able to succeed, even if their egos were slightly bruised as a result. Their string of failing to seal the deal with major free agents needs to end this winter if they’re to be successful once again.
They won’t skate by this time, not without Otani wearing orange.
