I realize that NBA divisions don’t matter, but they’re a good way to group teams into separate posts.
Here, I’ll be listing teams in order of my projected standings, as well as give one bold prediction for each squad beyond that.
Trey Lyles could be a breakout player for the Jazz this year.
(1) UTAH JAZZ
The Jazz break out, along with PF Trey Lyles.
A lot of experts are pegging Utah to make the playoffs this year, but I suspect they’ll do it easily. I’m talking a possible #5/#6 seed, and a comfortable divisional crown (for whatever that’s worth.)
I’m optimistic about the Jazz because of the addition of George Hill (perhaps the league’s best “3-and-D” point guard) and the potential of PF Trey Lyles. Despite some promise as a rookie, Lyles averaged less than 18 minutes per game — and his role didn’t grow after the All-Star break either.
Quin Snyder’s a bright coach, and should realize how well Lyles fits alongside his more traditional big men. While Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert may provide a 1-2 inside punch, Lyles can stretch the court and provide spacing with either one of them. He should be getting at least 25/30 minutes a game, in my mind, which would make Utah’s offense extremely tough to stop without sacrificing much on D.
(2) PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Portland goes 1 for 2 on their free agent splashes.
Don’t look now, but the moneyball Blazers actually have the second highest payroll in the league behind Cleveland, thanks to Neil Olshey throwing out wads of cash like a rapper in a strip club.
Among those included two near-identical contracts to small forwards Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner, who will be making over $16 million each this season. Of the two, Crabbe’s deal raised the most eyebrows, but it’s the one that I actually think will work out. Crabbe was a good shooter in college, and finally showed that last year in the NBA (to the tune of 42.9% from three). He has enough size to play either the 2 or 3, giving the team some flexibility with their backcourt and wings as well.
I’m not a fan of Evan Turner’s deal, nor of Turner as an NBA player. He’d be best suited as a 6th or 7th man off the bench, creating some offense for the second unit. However, when you give him a big deal, you’re feeding his ego to expect even more than that, which may give him more license than he deserves. I fear Turner will muck up the Blazer’s chemistry, rather than add to it, and thus limit the team’s upside this year.
(3) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
OKC misses the playoffs.
Some other pundits are predicting the same, but it’d certainly be a fall from grace from a team that went 55-27 and nearly won the championship last year.
I suspect this coming season will confirm two theories — Kevin Durant was (somehow) underrated, and Russell Westbrook was overrated. Westbrook’s an absolute beast of an athlete, and terrifying on a fast break. However, when the game slows down and he goes into a half court offense, he’s not nearly as effective or efficient. This season, we’re going to see a lot more of THAT Westbrook, to the detriment of the team’s winning percentage.
In my mind, Westbrook would be better serve stepping up his role as a distributor, as his lobs to Steven Adams and Enes Kanter proved deadly. Instead, I fear that he’ll come out firing and trying to prove Durant wrong with a scoring title or MVP run, which may bite the team in the face. That, coupled with (in my mind) an overrated Victor Oladipo, could spell a severe disappointment for OKC fans.
(4) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
The T-Wolves finally give up on Ricky Rubio.
Like everybody, I have high hopes for the future of Minnesota with Tom Thibodeau guiding their young core. However, I’m just not sure that Rubio fits well with that core. If the team doesn’t make the playoffs (which we should view as likely, given that they’ll be trying to crawl all the way up from 29-53), then Rubio could be the major shakeup this next off-season.
This isn’t to say Ricky Rubio is a bad NBA player, necessarily. Like Liam Neeson in TAKEN, he has a particular set of skills that can prove deadly. Unfortunately, those are a very PARTICULAR set of skills. That is, a non-shooting passer like Rubio is best served with a team of catch-and-shoot players around him, not unlike Rajon Rondo.
To me, the other stars in Minnesota like Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are more than catch-and-shooters, and merit their own time with the ball. I suspect the T-Wolves will realize the same, and try to parlay Rubio into a different type of asset.
(5) DENVER NUGGETS
The Nuggets bury Kenneth Faried on the bench.
That poor, poor Manimal. The stats suggest that Faried is still a useful player (in fact, his PER hovers over 21), but he’s simply not getting any respect from league circles or fanbases any more. The Nuggets have been reportedly trying to trade him, but haven’t found many takers so far.
My suspicion is that they’ll eventually tire of trying to get a great deal for Faried, and instead will resort to burying him on the bench. Perhaps on a different roster, Faried would thrive, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards on this particular Nuggets squad. Instead, Mike Malone may try to squeeze more shooting out of his team, which would mean more minutes at the 4 for Danilo Gallinari (or perhaps a healthy Wilson Chandler).
The future of the Nuggets is Emmanuel Mudiay and Jamal Murray, and that future could be bright down the road. While it’d be a shame to see Kenneth Faried’s poster on the wall while he’s sitting for the majority of the game, the team needs to focus on that future rather than its past.
