What could be coming soon in the MLB world.
Stanton to the Yankees, Ozuna to the Cardinals, and Otani choosing to play the outfield next to Mike Trout. After the Winter Meetings have concluded, the baseball world has a dramatically different landscape. One of the most fun things to do when the snow starts falling in the Midwest and your favorite football (the hapless Bears) and hockey teams (Blackhawks) aren’t doing so well is to debate hypothetical baseball questions right? No? Just me?
Anyway, here are three bold predictions to debate after the Winter Meetings:
1) The Yankees get into the playoffs but lose in the first round.
The Yankees made probably one of the shrewdest moves in the Winter Meetings when you look at the picture beyond this year. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper will likely break the baseball world’s collective bank when they hit free agency next year. That said, how the Yankees position themselves for to field a team that can compete against wherever Harper/Machado go? Deal Castro and absorb Stanton’s contract. For the Yankees, as revenue continues to increase and the value of existing contracts is better and better, taking on Stanton will end up being relatively cheap. In addition, Stanton and Judge combine to be arguably one of the top 5 tandems with the most “raw power.”
However, that power comes with a side effect: strikeouts.
Stanton did actually improve his strikeout rate, below 25% for the first time in his major league career. However, he still struck out at a rate of more than once a game, and now plays in the AL consistently, giving him more focused pitching competition. Judge has the propensity to strike out. In 155 games in 2017, he struck out 208 times. His totals for the year were impressive, but his second-half numbers tell a story of pitchers finding holes: .228 AVG with 99 strikeouts in 71 games.
While inherently strikeouts in the regular season aren’t killers, they are in the postseason. During the Yankees postseason run in 2017, the general results were if they struck out less than their opponent, the Yankees won. If not, the game would result in a loss. Now the ability to hit the ball over the fence can equalize any game, but if you can’t touch the ball, you can’t hit it over the fence. Keep a close eye on the Yankees in 2018.
2) The Cardinals don’t make the playoffs.
The trade for Marcel Ozuna definitely rounded out the Cardinals outfield and gave them a deeper, more consistent lineup than when Piscotty was there.
However, the NL Central has become one of the tough divisions to play in over the last 5 years, and the Cubs have made good moves to keep the team incredibly competitive on both sides of the ball. The Brewers are likely due for some regression after career years from practically everyone on the team but are still looking to be much more competitive than in years past, and the Cardinals pitching staff has not quite progressed into what was once going to be a sure thing.
The Cardinals just weren’t the consistent team we’ve come to know. There were win streaks, losing streaks, offensive droughts, great pitching tears, and deep pitching valleys. This is not the picture of the consistent, next man up approach and mentality we’ve come to expect from the Cardinals. 2018 will be very telling of the future of the franchise.
3) Manny Machado gets traded at the July deadline (or sooner).
Manny Machado is easily in the Top 10 position players in the MLB, and it could be debated has the 3rd highest ceiling in baseball, behind Trout and Harper.
That being said, Machado is due to enter his unrestricted free agency year and is due to receive a very hefty payday. Last year’s down season aside, Machado has been one of the greatest talents to come onto the scene is the last 5 years. His combination of offensive prowess and defensive gifts make him one of the great two-way talents in the game today.
In 2015 and 2016, Machado only fell behind Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, and Kris Bryant in WAR, but had the highest defensive WAR of any of those players.
Most speculations have Machado receiving a contract in the realm of what Giancarlo Stanton received from the Marlins, possibly more due to his two-way prowess.
Either way, the Orioles are likely unable to afford Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and compete in AL East. Unless the Orioles want to risk letting Machado walk for no return, it would be prudent from a pure business sense to trade him to get some sort of return.
There are two issues facing the Orioles in this regard: Machado is no guarantee for the team trading for him and the return for Machado won’t be as high as the Orioles would like.
Since Machado is only under contract for the 2018 season, there’s no guarantee he’ll sign with the team that is able to get a deal done for him. This will detract value for any team looking to bring Machado on board.
This first point factors into the second point, in that the Orioles will receive a lower return from any potential suitor because Machado’s full value will likely not be met with any trade offer they receive. Teams will be less likely to part ways with their best prospects since they’ve got no guarantee that Machado will sign with his new team at the end of the 2018 season.
These two points being acknowledged, a potential suitor will arise during the season and will make an offer that the Orioles will be unable to refuse.
