Are we expecting too much of Shohei Otani?
Shohei Otani is the most exciting Japanese prospect to come out of Japan since Yu Darvish. With an electric fastball that’s topped 100 MPH, and a really solid swing from the left side, there’s a plethora of things to like about Otani.
One of the biggest challenges facing current big league teams is how do they meet his request to play both pitcher and the field when he decides with which MLB team he’ll play.
There have been some successful converts from pitcher to hitter: Babe Ruth, Lefty O’Doul, and Mark McGuire to name a few. Yet, so few players have done both in the major leagues it is hard to imagine Otani being able to pull it off.
He’s got a few factors going against him: length of schedule, level of competition, and training schedules.
First, the Japanese seasons has been able to play so far have not been favorable in preparing him for the MLB. Since his emergence in 2014, Otani has not played in more than 104 games in a season, nor has he made more than 24 starts. Both of these numbers pale in comparison to the grueling 120-140 games he’d be expected to play as a potential superstar for his team. In addition, if he’s true to his word about pitching, he’ll likely be expected to at least make 24 starts, ideally for his team closer to 30. Both of those additional numbers seem daunting from the outside perspective, and would likely be even more daunting once the season begins, the longer travel times begin, and the distance from home becomes real.
The Japanese baseball league has been very competitive for the last ten years. Many baseball players have traveled there to improve their games, or resurrect their careers. The difference is still significant; only Ichiro Suzuki stands a chance to be in the MLB Hall of Fame for his career in the majors. Hideki Matsui was a very solid player for the Yankees, but never truly could replicate his success in Japan. Yu Darvish looks to be a great/ace pitcher in the MLB, but his career is too young to truly tell the depth of his talent. Needless to say, Otani will have many adjustments to make in his transition to the MLB.
The last big hurdle Otani will face is the regimented schedules of major league baseball players. Since the function of pitchers and position players is inherently different, the way they train and conduct themselves both in season and during the offseason will present a new challenge for Otani: how can he practice both with enough time devoted to either? Given the grueling schedules and time differences he’ll experience, he could lose 10-14 hours during the travel to any given series when you also account for sleep. Given that players arrive at a ballpark 2-3 hours before a game for practice, Otani has to fill that time with both his arm care workouts, groundballs/fly balls, and hitting practice. It will be very difficult to devote enough proper time to both crafts to succeed at the Major League level.
I’m fully supporting Otani in his quest to be both a position player and a pitcher. I don’t think he’ll be able to play both at a high enough level to warrant it from a major league team. Prediction: #2 starting pitcher beginning his second year.
