With the CONCACAF Champions League Knockout stages beginning in 2 weeks, I look at every matchup and decide who has the best chance at winning their matchups, and eventually, the tournament. 8 teams survived the intense Group Stages and advanced to the Quarterfinals, Mexican clubs Pachuca, Tigres UANL, and UNAM, MLS clubs FC Dallas, Vancouver Whitecaps, and New York Red Bulls, Panamanian club Arabe Unido, and Costa Rican club Deportivo Saprissa. Every leg consists of two legs, which each team getting a home match.
C.F. Pachuca should win their first matchup.
Quarterfinal Matchup #1: Deportivo Saprissa vs C.F. Pachuca- I think that would’ve been a lot closer had Saprissa not been raided of some of their best players by MLS clubs during the winter transfer window. Nevertheless, I think Pachuca will realize just how hard it is to win an away match in Central America, and will escape with a 1-1 draw in Saprissa. However, I expect Pachuca’s home crowd to give them the motivation they need to win this matchup once they head back to Mexico, and I predict a 3-0 home win for Pachuca.
Prediction: Pachuca wins on aggregate, 4-1.
Quarterfinal Matchup #2: New York Red Bulls vs Vancouver Whitecaps- This matchup features two MLS teams, and should be a fairly even matchup. I expect Kekuta Manneh to shine in the first leg, leading Vancouver to a 2-1 win. In the always crucial second leg, however, I expect the Red Bulls’ depth to prevail, leading to a 2-0 win.
Prediction: Red Bulls win on aggregate, 3-2.
Quarterfinal Matchup #3: Tigres UANL vs UNAM- Just like the all-MLS matchup between New York and Vancouver, this matchup will feature two teams from the same league, in Liga MX sides Tigres UANL and UNAM. I won’t sugarcoat things here, I fully expect Tigres to dominate this matchup, despite the familiarity between the two sides. With Andre-Pierre Gignac and newly-acquired Eduardo Vargas leading a daunting attack, I expect a 2-0 home win for Tigres and a 2-1 win away from home.
Prediction: Tigres win on aggregate, 4-1.
Quarterfinal Matchup #4: Arabe Unido vs FC Dallas- This matchup will likely prove difficult for Dallas, as a pre-season form Dallas team may not be prepared for the physical style of play that fans have come to expect from their Panamanian opposition. With Dallas playing their first official match in 3 months when the teams will meet in Dallas, I expect a rusty Dallas side to grind out a 0-0 draw in front of the home crowd. The away fixture is obviously crucial for Dallas, and despite how tough it is to win in Central America, I expect Oscar Pareja to make some changes after the first fixture, and for Dallas to pull off a shock 2-1 win in Panama.
Prediction: FC Dallas wins on aggregate, 2-1.
Semi-Final Matchup #1: New York Red Bulls vs Tigres UANL- In the first MLS vs Liga MX matchup of the competition, Tigres UANL will meet the New York Red Bulls for a chance to advance to the final. New York will finally be in-season at this point, and that should help a bit, but with New York’s questionable defense being tasked with slowing down Tigres’ attack, it could be a rough series for the Red Bulls. Behind the home crowd at Red Bull Arena, I expect the Red Bulls to give fans a bit of hope with a 1-1 draw. I expect Tigres to finally assert their dominance in Monterrey however, winning 2-0,
Prediction: Tigres wins on aggregate, 3-1.
Semi-Final Matchup #2: FC Dallas vs C.F. Pachuca- Another MLS vs Liga MX clash, this time FC Dallas will take on C.F. Pachuca. FC Dallas brings with them what was an MLS-best defense last season, led by Centerbacks Matt Hedges (Last season’s MLS Defender of the Year) and Walker Zimmerman. The Dallas backline, with Ecuadorian international Carlos Gruezo anchoring the midfield as a #6 just in front of the back 4, will be the key for Dallas in this matchup.Pachuca has a solid defense themselves, though, including US international Centerback Omar Gonzalez, so expect this to be a low-scoring affair. I like Dallas to win 1-0 in Frisco, Texas, before grinding out a 0-0 draw in Pachuca, and becoming just the second MLS club to reach the finals of the tournament (Montreal in 2014 being the first).
CONCACAF Champions League Final: Tigres UANL vs FC Dallas- This matchup may end up a lot more even than many would expect. I do expect Dallas to struggle for offense, however, as Argentine playmaker Mauro Diaz will still be recovering from an ACL tear he suffered just before last season’s MLS Playoffs. I expect Dallas to play some bunker ball while trying to catch Tigres off guard on the counter-attack. This strategy has worked in the past, and I expect to work again in front the the Frisco home crowd, holding Tigres to a 0-0, and giving themselves a chance ahead of Leg 2 in Monterrey. In the second, I expect Dallas to go in with bit of a “nothing to lose” mentality, and try to attack more than they did in the first leg. I foresee a 0-0 scoreline heading into the 2nd half, with some missed chances for each team. Eventually, however, I expect the deadlock to be broken by Frenchman Andre-Pierre Gignac, who will finally catch Dallas’ defense sleeping, and score the eventual winner in the 70th minute or so.
Prediction: Tigres wins on aggregate, 1-0.
Champions: Tigres UANL
