Could A.J. McCarron be an option for the Broncos?
Watching Paxton Lynch‘s eyes well up with tears on the sidelines on Sunday, you couldn’t help but feel for the kid. After all, he knew what we all did. This would have been his best chance to lock up the starting job in Denver and answer any doubts about him being a bust or not, and he blew it. 9/14 for 41 yards, 0 TDs, 1 int, and 4 sacks, against the worst pass defense in the NFL.
Going forward, it’s going to be difficult for Denver fans and the front office to trust Lynch as a franchise QB. Further, it may be difficult to play Lynch at all, seeing as how Trevor Siemian performed better than he did and presents the best chance at winning for a team of proud veterans.
Now that Denver’s at 3-8, it may be a moot point. We should start looking ahead to 2018, and determining what possible plans the Broncos have to plug this hole at QB. With that in mind, here is the laundry list of options.
The pie in the sky free agents
In theory, there should be a strong mutual interest between the Denver Broncos and the star quarterbacks on the market. With a good QB, this team would be right back in the Super Bowl mix again. Among those star names slated for free agency: Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins. The idea of putting either of those Pro Bowl caliber QBs on this team should have AFC teams shaking in their boots.
Of course, they all know that it’s a “pie in the sky” choice because the cap math would be extremely difficult to figure out. The NFL salary cap is a strange voodoo that I’ve never quite understood, but it’d still be hard to imagine John Elway and company squeezing $25+ million a year into their books. You could try to clear as much room as possible (trading Demaryius Thomas? cutting Aqib Talib?) but may gut some of your core in the process. It’s too hard to imagine.
I’d put San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo (still unsigned) in that same boat, as a quarterback who could make close to $20 million next year. Sorry, Broncos fans, let’s move on.
Realistic free agents
Among the more realistic and affordable free agents, Cincinnati QB A.J. McCarron interests me the most. Right now, there’s still some doubt (to be determined by the league) whether he’ll be a restricted or unrestricted free agent, but either way, he should draw some interest. McCarron doesn’t “wow” you with his arm, but he’s a heady player who should be able to win with the right team around him. You can dismiss him as Andy Dalton Lite, but Andy Dalton won a lot of game in this league.
McCarron represents a good mix of upside/downside at his cost. The Browns are clearly interested in McCarron and may drive up his price, but there’s no guarantee that his buddy Hue Jackson will be in Cleveland next year to raise the paddle in the bidding war. Instead, I’d expect McCarron to get a deal similar to Mike Glennon last year — a reasonable one as a “prove it” starter. Hopefully, McCarron proves that he indeed can be a winning starter; at 27, he has 5+ years of that upside in the tank.
Another option that’s elevated his stock significantly this year is Minnesota’s, Case Keenum. He’s playing his best football in Pat Shurmur’s offense and showing that he too can be a “winner” with the right team around him. The talent level in Denver is similar, so the 29-year-old Keenum may make sense on both sides. Minnesota will be in the catbird seat with Keenum and will have a decision on their hands. Do they move forward with Keenum? Or Teddy Bridgewater (also a free agent)? Whoever “loses” that battle would be a legitimate option for Denver.
You can also make an argument for a heady vet like Josh McCown fitting in Denver, but at 38 years old, that’s a stopgap solution at best.
Likely cuts
It’s obviously premature to consider the list of available quarterbacks right now, especially because there are quarterbacks who will become available after teams decide to cut them.
Among that group, Buffalo and Tyrod Taylor appear close to a divorce. The knock on Taylor, 28, is that he was never going to lead Buffalo to the playoffs. However, could he lead Denver to the playoffs? It’s very possible. The Denver Broncos with Tyrod Taylor immediately become a playoff threat again. Taylor may end up snagging a fat contract depending on how the market plays out, but he’s a strong consideration if the price is right.
Another intriguing option would be Arizona’s veteran Carson Palmer. There’s no guarantee that Palmer (who’s turning 39 in December) will return to the NFL next year. However, if he does, the Cards would likely cut him rather than pay his slated 2018 salary. At this stage in his career, Palmer would be in that Josh McCown category of a 1-year starter who can keep the lights on for you.
Another future cut that the team may consider is the Bears’, Mike Glennon.He didn’t show much in his big chance in Chicago, but we all know how much John Elway loves height.
Unlikely trade
One candidate that would be an awfully nice fit on paper is Kansas City’s, Alex Smith. With Pat Mahomes set to take over in 2018, Smith should become available. He’d be an excellent fit as a game manager “plus” on Denver and may be good enough to lead them on a playoff run.
Of course, that’s why it’s unlikely to happen. Kansas City still controls the final year of his contract, and would most likely not ship him off to a divisional rival.
Draft picks
Believe it or not, but the Denver Broncos are actually in contention for a top 5 draft pick right now.
However, they’re unlikely to land # 1 or # 2, which is a big difference in terms of the QB market. If a college QB leaps up and locks down the # 1 spot (which would most likely be UCLA’s Josh Rosen or USC’s Sam Darnold), the Broncos would have to package multiple picks to move up for them.
In the 5-10 range, the Broncos may have the option of some intriguing “B” tier signal callers. Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield is extraordinarily productive (70%+ completion, 10.0+ yards per attempt) even when you account for the Sooners’ “system.” Louisville’s Lamar Jackson has some unique talent. Both Mayfield and Jackson would make me nervous about how their skills translate to the NFL, but both have an undeniable magic about them.
The draft also has more traditional passers the team can consider. Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph (likely mid-to-late R1) has more prototypical size and pocket presence, but there are questions about him outside of that system as well. R2-R3 prospects would include North Carolina State’s Ryan Finley, Virginia’s Kurt Benkert, and Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson. I’m intrigued by all of those prospects, but the idea of gambling on another young QB may be dicey for the Broncos. In theory, John Elway should be uniquely suited to parse through them and pick a winner, but he hasn’t shown that ability so far.
In-house option
Finally, the search around the world takes us back to the Broncos’ own roster. There may not be great options on the team, but there are at least some options.
Trevor Siemian flashes at times, although he looks mediocre (or below-average) most of the time. Either way, Siemian should be a part of the Broncos’ plans in 2018 in one way or another. He’s on an extremely cheap rookie contract that will pay him $700,000 for 2018. That’s a bargain for a 25-year-old with starting experience. I wouldn’t love the idea of starting Siemian next year, but he’s a great value as a # 2.
I’m not going back to the well with Paxton Lynch or Brock Osweiler, but I’m legitimately curious about current rookie Chad Kelly, who’s been on the I.R. If “Swag” Kelly didn’t have some off-the-field question marks, he would have been drafted a lot higher than R7. He has physical tools and solid production at Mississippi. In fact, you can make the argument that Kelly represents just as good of a risk as some of the “B” or “C” tier QB prospects from this year’s draft. Given that, it makes a lot of sense to treat Kelly as your draft pick, and use your actual top selections to help plug up some holes that have emerged elsewhere.
The other appealing aspect of Chad Kelly is that, like Trevor Siemian, he’s on an extremely team-friendly contract. He’ll be making $555,000 in 2018, $645,000 in 2019, and $735,000 in 2020. If Chad Kelly can prove to be a starter (which is a big “if” for sure), then the Broncos would have an enormous bargain on their hands for several years moving forward. The Seattle Seahawks’ roster benefited greatly from a cheap starter in Russell Wilson (when he was on his rookie deal) and the Broncos’ may be in the same boat if Kelly can lock up a starting job by 2018. Again, I’m not suggesting that Kelly = Russell Wilson. But the bar isn’t Russell Wilson; it’s “average starter.”
Bottom line
Given their salary cap situation, the Denver Broncos may be limited in what kind of moves they can make. In fact, I still imagine that their most likely starter for 2018 is someone in-house like Chad Kelly. But as mentioned, that may not be a bad idea at all.
Obviously, the Broncos would know Chad Kelly better than any of us, with rare insight into his work habits and NFL-readiness. If they believe he’s a genuine starting talent, then it makes a lot of sense to roll the dice with him as a starter (with Trevor Siemian as the fallback plan) for 2018. Imagine having a QB depth chart where your # 1 and # 2 make a combined $1.5 million a year! That’s long snapper money.
Of course, if the Broncos have taken Kelly for a test drive behind the scenes and decided he’s a lemon, then other plans would have to be made. Of the available options, A.J. McCarron makes the most sense to me (provided the Browns don’t give him $250 million dollars). Of course, there will be a handful of other teams like the Browns out there, all trying to finagle and solve their own QB problem, so this isn’t nearly as easy as it may seem.
