We set out to create a more accurate trade value chart for fantasy football.
We need an improved trade value chart for fantasy football.
There are not many trade value charts out there and the ones that do exist have some significant flaws. Inaccurate rankings, lack of tiers, and the ability to account fairly for 2-for-1 trades are some of the most glaring.
1 – Inaccurate Rankings.
Dave Richards from CBS Sports has been doing a trade value column for a long time and I am thankful for it. I take a peek at it every week and it is certainly better than nothing. However, as it has been well noted, Dave doesn’t have the greatest rankings history as tracked by FantasyPros.
It is great to have trade values, but if those values are not accurate, it isn’t that helpful.
What’s the fix?
Use accurate ratings. This is obvious.
It is getting the accurate ratings that’s a little trickier.
For these trade values, we are taking our rankings from a selection of their top rest of season rankings that can be found on FantasyPros. What is a little ironic is that FantasyPros has their own Trade Value column, but it doesn’t seem to use the rankings that they accumulate and instead is just one guy’s opinion.
2 – Tiers
Even the best rankings have flaws. It is foolish for us as fantasy players to expect somebody to have 100% accurate predictions. There are simply too many variables to account for. This is where tiered rankings come in handy. It basically groups a set of players together that all have similar value and concedes that any one of them may have the best week or season. In spite of this, most of the common trade value charts do not use a tiered ranking system (there is only one that I can think of that does).
What’s the fix?
To me, it makes a lot of sense to group trade values into tiers as well and so this is what we are going to do. Each player will still get a unique value to them, but the tiers allow for the inevitable variance that comes with trying to predict future performance. If a player is in the same tier you can assume that a one for one trade is fair value.
This should also be helpful in looking for good value. If a player falls into the same tier as another player who is typically regarded as a better talent, you may be able to aim for the “lower” player for cheaper and get similar production out of them.
3 – The Premium for Top Talent in 2-for-1 Trades
The third issue that exists is factoring in a premium for top talent when it comes to 2-for-1 trades.
No one is going to trade 5 “Willie Sneads” for 1 Le’Veon Bell, even if the trade value charts say they are getting a good deal. This is because you can only play a set amount of players at each position each week. If I could play 5 “Willie Sneads” while my opponent only got to play one Lev Bell, then maybe I would think about that trade, but that’s not how things work.
Traditional trade value charts can’t account for this. They are just trying to assign a player a value. This works well for one to one trades, but not so much when you start getting multiple players involved.
Offering up a slew of average guys for one elite guy is a good way to have your league mates avoid trading with you at all.
What’s the fix?
I have introduced a decimal multiplier based upon tiers that attempt to more accurately account for two for one trades by lowering the value of the players on the two-sided side. This way, if you are trying to upgrade, it will push you to offer more than what the initial player value would suggest.
The Trade Values – Week 5
Alright, now onto the actual values.
* Quick note on how the 2 for 1 multiplier works – Traditionally, if you wanted to trade Carlos Hyde ($60) and Dez Bryant ($60) for Le’Veon Bell ($80) it would appear as if it were a very one-sided trade ($60 + $60 = $120 compared to Bell’s $80). However, due to the premium of top-tier players, this trade is much closer to fair value, or even being undervalued as an offer for Bell. To attempt to account for this, you can use the multiplier listed by the tier. You will want to use the lowest tiered multiplier.
Dez and Hyde both fall in tier 4 and have a 0.8 multiplier.
First, add their trade values (60 + 60 = $120)
Then, multiply the result by the multiplier ($120 x 0.75 = 90)
This brings the final trade value for Dez and Hyde to 90, which is a more realistic number than the $120 from simply adding them together.
You only need to use the multiplier in 2-for-1 trades. 1-for-1, 2-for-2, and so on can use the straight up values.
