the Los Angeles Clippers the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on October 31, 2014 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
We’re going to keep trying a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents and give my personal and amateur opinions about the best situations for them.
BLAKE GRIFFIN
The player you’re getting
In the previous post about J.J. Redick, I mentioned how Redick’s managed to completely change his perception, going from hated college star to well-respected pro who’s liked by almost every fanbase in the league.
The opposite may be true for his teammate Blake Griffin. As a second-year rookie, Griffin took the NBA by storm, exploding for averages of 22.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. He was a highlight reel dunking machine, with a sarcastic and dry TV-friendly persona to boot.
Flash forward seven years later, and that act’s gotten stale. The Chris Paul – Blake Griffin pairing still hasn’t gotten over the hump, and the title looks farther away than ever. Most NBA fans now criticize Griffin more than compliment him, picking apart the flaws in his game, his litany of injuries, and his occasional habit of KO’ing the support staff. A few years ago, every fan would have loved to have Griffin on their team. Now, I would suspect that most would be reluctant to pay him the max.
What makes Griffin so polarizing is also a unique set of skills (and flaws). While he’s best known as an athlete and dunker, that’s actually not what makes him stand out. Griffin’s an excellent ballhandler and playmaker for his position, racking up 5.0 assists per game over the last three seasons. And that’s with league-leader Chris Paul on his team. Paul cuts into Griffin’s assists (just as DeAndre Jordan cuts into his rebounding totals.) If Blake Griffin played on his own team, it’s reasonable that he could average MVP type numbers of 25-9-7. There’s a reason he’s finished as high as 3rd in MVP voting after all.
But Griffin clearly has his flaws as well. He’s an average (at best) shooter, in an era that demands that from the position. He’s been trying to extend his range — he actually shot 113 threes last year, compared to a grand total of 155 in the previous seven years combined — but there’s still a long way to go.
Defensively, Griffin’s lack of length limits him as a shot blocker; he averaged 0.4 blocks last year and peaked with 0.7 as his career high. That limitation has prevented the Clippers from experimenting with Griffin as a small ball center, an endeavor that most star PFs in the league have been trying.
Finally, there are those injury concerns. Griffin missed his entire first year in the league, but then rebounded to net 80+ games in 3 of the following 4. However, he hasn’t cracked 70 games since. Part of the problem is that Griffin plays HARD — often exhausting himself and racking up bangs and bruises along the way. Any team that signs him to a long-term extension would be wise to limit his minutes down to about 30-32 a game (his career average with the Clips is 35.2.)
The contract he’s getting
Clearly, there are some concerns about Blake Griffin around the league, both in terms of his on-court value and his injury history. All that said, he’s still a bona fide “star,” capable of being one of the better players in the league. I suspect he’ll get the max — although probably not the super-max.
The length of the contract will be more in debate. Griffin’s only 28 but does have a laundry list of injuries piling up. If Griffin loses a step or two as a result, then his ability to improve that shooting and that range will be the key to his future in the league. It could very well happen (as mentioned, he’s trying) but it’s hardly a guarantee. All in all, Griffin’s going to be a very well paid “boom or bust” signing.
The best fits
(3) Boston Celtics
Milwaukee gets the most credit for playing “position-less” basketball, but quietly Brad Stevens and the Celtics have been doing the same. They’ve been throwing out their best players on the court together and letting them figure it out. The trouble is: so many of the Celtics best players are small. In fact, their average height (weighted per minute) was under 6’6″ — tiny, by NBA standards. That’s not due to Isaiah Thomas alone — heavy minutes for Avery Bradley at SG and Marcus Smart at SF contributes to that.
As a result, the Celtics are making an effort to add more size, particularly at the wing and forward spots with picks like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Blake Griffin would aid in that effort. Neither Griffin nor Al Horford are great rim-protectors on their own, but together, they’d be a solid PF-C combo in the paint without slowing you down on switches.
On one hand, I like the idea of Blake Griffin and Isaiah Thomas both being capable playmakers on offense. The Celtics may not match the Cavs on star power alone, but they can unleash a boatload of depth, with either Griffin or IT on the court at all times. On the other hand, if you’re not showcasing Griffin as a playmaker, he doesn’t add much, given his lack of shooting and defensive length.
(2) New York Knicks
The New York Knicks are an absolute mess right now, both on and off the court. Phil Jackson and Jeff Hornacek may be on their way out, and the team itself can’t decide what direction to go in. They’re simultaneously too old (Joakim Noah) and too young (Frank Ntilikina) to compete for the playoffs.
All that said, there’s one thing I like about the idea of Blake Griffin on the Knicks: the potential pairing with Kristaps Porzingis. In theory, they’d be a wonderful complement to each other. On offense, Griffin can be the lead facilitator, with Porzingis spacing the floor (which is something DeAndre Jordan can’t do). On defense, Porzingis’ length and shot-blocking abilities would help cover for Griffin. I know the Knicks fans are high on Willy Hernangomez, but if the team’s truly going to be a force, they need a playmaking PF and Porzingis as a stretch 5.
The Knicks don’t have the room to offer the max to Griffin, but they can make it work. If Griffin demands to go to New York, then the Clippers may be inclined to accept a sign and trade for Carmelo Anthony, figuring he can be a 1 year bridge before a swing at LeBron James in 2018.
(1) Los Angeles Clippers
I know that fans are sick of the Chris Paul – Blake Griffin Clippers, and maybe the two are sick of each other as well. But at the end of the day, this is a good playoff team that’s going to be hard to “blow up.”
The Clippers may be reluctant to offer Blake Griffin the 5th year that only they can, but they can still afford to offer him a max contract and let Steve Ballmer pony up for the luxury tax issues that could arise. Presuming Griffin stays healthy, there’s also the option of a trade next summer as well.
If I’m Griffin, I may have eyes elsewhere. I may like the idea of being the main man in New York, or playing for a stacked Boston team. But oftentimes, the “grass is greener” elsewhere. Right now, he’s in a good (if not great) situation in Los Angeles, and may not want to roll the dice elsewhere.
