We’re going to keep trying a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents and give my personal and amateur opinions about the best situations for them.
J.J. REDICK
The player you’re getting
There are very few players who manage to change public perception as much as J.J. Redick has over his career. Everyone hated Redick back when he was a cocky, swaggering star at Duke (he was Grayson Allen, minus the assassination attempts). But now, over a decade later, we can all look at him as one of the most respected players in the league, a testament to his skills and his professionalism (and his podcasting prowess.)
More than anything, you have to respect the man’s shot. In his 11 seasons in the NBA, Redick’s lowest three-point percentage was 37.4%. He’s been better than ever lately, nailing 43.7%, 47.5%, and 42.9% over these last three years on 5.5+ attempts per game. That, coupled with a career free throw percentage of 88.8%, helps Redick hit around 60% in true shooting percentage.
What else does he do well…? Hm. Can I mention that shot again?
Jokes aside, Redick doesn’t contribute much outside of shooting and scoring ability. He only logged 2.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game despite 28+ minutes, although some of that can be blamed on ball-dominant stars like Chris Paul and Blake Griffin around him. He flashed more playmaking — 4.4 assists per game — in his featured season with Orlando. On the other end, Redick has worked hard to become a smart positional defender, but his lack of size (6’4″ with matching wingspan) limits his effectiveness.
The contract he’s getting
Shooting’s never been more valued in the NBA, so naturally, Redick’s going to be in demand. He may be the best shooter in the league outside of Oakland. Even if he’s essentially a one-trick pony, that one trick can be worth $20 million a year.
The length of his contract’s going to be the bigger debate. Redick recently turned 33. Shooting ages well (see: Allen, Ray) so Redick will presumably still be able to stroke it when he’s 50. The problem is going to be on the other end. As mentioned, Redick’s improved as a defender from his early years, but as he’s aged that’s started to regress again. ESPN real plus/minus listed his defensive impact as a -2.11 per 100 possessions. You can live with that for now, but it could be a major problem come age 35 or 36.
Given that concern, the most that I’d offer Redick is a 3 year deal. Unfortunately, I don’t know if he’d take that. He’s never gotten an enormous contract in the NBA yet, so he may be looking to cash in as much as possible.
The best fits
(3) Orlando Magic
Ideally, you’d want to fit J.J. Redick on a contender that needs shooting (like an Oklahoma City), but there’s not a lot of cap space to go around with teams like that.
Among younger rebuilding teams, Orlando makes some sense to me as a return destination for Redick. The Magic are young, but they’re not that young. PG Elfrid Payton and PF Aaron Gordon will both be entering their 4th season in the NBA — their presumed improvement, coupled with a decent roster pieces like Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic, make it hard for the Magic to “tank.” And if you’re not going to get a top 5 pick, why not try to climb the standings?
Adding Redick would help toward that end. Payton and Gordon need spacing more than anything, and Redick can provide that. Between Redick, Fournier (and Terrence Ross off the bench) the Magic will be able to trot out good shooters at the wing spots. Those young kids (plus super young Jonathan Isaac) could also use a veteran leader like Redick in the locker room, helping to get the most out of their abilities.
(2) Philadelphia 76ers
The same logic applies here in Philadelphia, only tenfold. There are ballooning expectations in Philly, where fans are starting to get that playoff itch. 20 or 30 wins was acceptable before, but if it happens again, it’ll feel deflating.
Enter Redick. The Sixers don’t have any issues with cap space right now, so they can overwhelm Redick on a short-term offer. He’d be an asset in the locker room, where his professionalism should help those young kids, some of whom had issues with maturity. The Sixers tried to lure in a respected vet like Manu Ginobili last year, but perhaps Redick would be even more effective toward that end considering that he has more gas left in the tank.
In fact, I really like his fit with this team in terms of their on-court skill set. Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons may be super talents, but they’re not consistent three-point shooters right now (I know Fultz hit 40% in college, but that’s college.) They could use spacers like Redick who can be effective without the ball in his hands. The length of this Sixers team (Fultz, Robert Covington, Ben Simmons, and Joel Embiid) would also help cover for Redick on the defensive end.
Right now, I’m mixed on the idea that these young Sixers can make the playoffs next year. With Redick? I’d pencil them in.
(1) Los Angeles Clippers
We’ve heard it all before: despite all their talent, the Clippers still haven’t made the Western Conference Finals. They’re not getting any younger. They’re not getting any better. Clearly, they should “blow it up.”
And do what…? Dive headfirst into a rebuild? Presumably, that’ll take 4-5 years before you’re able to field a competitive team again — a team that would be thrilled to make the second round of the playoffs.
Rebuilding doesn’t seem like owner Steve Ballmer’s style. He’s got a big wallet and a new arena on his mind. More than any other owner in the league, Ballmer seems like the type of guy who’d spend $160+ million on a winner. Is this Clippers core a “winner?” Not in title terms, no. But it’s a good team. A playoff team. And sometimes, that’s good enough.
I have a feeling that Ballmer will bite the bullet and pay Chris Paul the super-max, with a max to Blake Griffin for good measure. As long as you’re bringing those two back, you may as well bring Redick back as well, even if it will jolt you into the luxury tax. Redick’s shooting complements the rest of the roster well. You don’t have the cap room to replace him, so you’d be trusting Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford and all the 5-20 games they can muster. The Clippers may have a bigger move up their sleeve (LeBron James 2018? Paul George?) but they can always deal Blake Griffin to clear space to make that happen down the road.
For Redick, staying with a stagnating Clippers team may not be thrilling (compared to Philly), but it’s a safe bet to make good money, make the playoffs, and stay in the media spotlight.
