We’re going to keep trying a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents and give my personal and amateur opinions about the best situations for them.
JRUE HOLIDAY
The player you’re getting
LaVar Ball and the Big Baller Brand may be taking the country by storm, but the Holiday family may actually turn out to be the more productive Southern California clan. Jrue’s older brother Justin is a SG/SF for the Knicks, and his younger brother Aaron will most likely take over Lonzo’s job at PG at UCLA this year, with a good chance to be drafted into the NBA himself.
But like Lonzo, Jrue’s the signature star of the family. He was a big-time recruit who got a little underdrafted (#17 to Philly) and has since turned in 4 solid years with Philadelphia, and 4 solid years with New Orleans. Holiday displays an array of skills on both ends of the court. He’s an above-average scorer (15.4 points per game last year), above-average shooter for the position (36.6% from three for his career), and above-average distributor (7.3 assists against 2.9 turnovers). His size and length at 6’4″ makes him a quality defender as well.
Given all those tools, you could argue that Holiday’s been a little underwhelming in both PHI and NO so far. The biggest problem he’s run into has been durability; in those 8 seasons, he’s only cracked 70+ games three times. More than anything, though, it goes to show you the wealth of talent at the point guard position in the NBA. Players like Jrue Holiday and Eric Bledsoe may not be top 10 at their position or get mentioned for All-Star teams, but they’re good enough to command $15-20+ million a year.
The contract he’s getting
Since Jrue Holiday’s a net “plus” player on both offense and defense, there’s going to be some demand for him on the open market. In a vacuum, a player of his caliber can probably expect $20 million a year — although a full max would be an overpay.
In terms of the length of the deal, you can argue either way. Holiday turned 27 this past June, so you’re still getting him during his prime years. However, all those injuries make a 4-5 year deal a risky proposition. Personally, I’m comfortable enough with a young player like Holiday to roll the dice on a 4-year contract for around $20 million per annum. As long as you feel like he’s healthy right now (check with your doctors), Holiday’s skills should continue to make him an effective player at age 31.
The best fits
(3) Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are one of the few teams in the league with legitimate playoff chances and legitimate cap space to play around with. They’re going to be in the conversation for a lot of the top players this summer.
The “fit” with Holiday and Denver is more up for debate and depends on how well you think he’d mesh with their young guard Jamal Murray. Personally, I can see the two playing together. Holiday has enough size and length to guard either PGs or SGs. Offensively, Holiday and Murray can be interchangeable pieces, given that Murray’s more of a scoring combo guard than anything.
You have to factor in pure SG Gary Harris into the equation as well, seeing as how his size (6’4″) makes him unlikely to play heavy minutes at SF. Still, if your three guards are Jrue Holiday, Jamal Murray, and Gary Harris sharing two spots, you could be in good shape. Each could play 32 minutes a night. (48 * 2) / 3 = 32. It’s not a perfect option, but it’s an option.
(2) New York Knicks
I don’t exactly know what Phil Jackson and the Knicks are planning this summer, and I’m not sure they do, either. Are they going to try to contend for the playoffs? Are they going to blow it up? Who knows.
IF the team does want to make a push, then Jrue Holiday starts to make sense. Jrue has openly talked about his desire to play with his big brother Justin Holiday, a wing whose 7’0″ wingspan makes him an intriguing 3-and-D player. Justin Holiday’s also a free agent this summer, meaning the Holiday Bros. could shop themselves around as a package deal.
A lineup of Jrue Holiday, Courtney Lee, Justin Holiday, Carmelo Anthony, and Kristaps Porzingis (with prospects Frank Ntilikina and Willy Hernangomez developing on the bench) could be a legitimate playoff contender out East.
(1) New Orleans Pelicans
There’s a lot of question marks in New Orleans right now. I don’t have a lot of faith in their leadership in Alvin Gentry or Dell Demps. I’m not convinced that their stars Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are a winning combination together.
But you know what? I don’t care. If I’m a young-ish point guard like Jrue Holiday, I’m sticking with Anthony Davis until you pry him from my cold, dead hands. Davis has MVP-level upside, and consequently, the Pelicans have title-level upside themselves, presuming they surround Davis with the right pieces and the right staff. That may not be this particular staff, but it could come down the road.
The Pelicans may be reluctant to pay Jrue Holiday $20+ million, but this will be their best chance to lock up a star before DeMarcus Cousins hits free agency next summer. Once you have Davis and Cousins under massive deals, it’ll be hard to add another impact player. Given that timeline crunch, gambling on Holiday’s health makes more sense.
