We’re going to keep trying a series where we take a deeper dive at some of the upcoming free agents and give my personal and amateur opinions about the best situations for them.
OTTO PORTER JR.
The player you’re getting
A good-but-not-great basketball prospect from Missouri (which is strangely becoming a hotbed of NBA talent these days), Otto Porter was only a top 35/40 recruit in high school. He decided to attend Georgetown University, which had a recent tradition of developing similar small forwards like him in Jeff Green and Hollis Thompson.
Porter actually came off the bench (behind Thompson) as a freshman, but showed a strong basketball IQ, putting up stats of 9.7 points and 6.8 rebounds as a key reserve. The one major hole in his game was his three point shot (22.6% on only 1.6 attempts per game.) With that in mind, Porter returned for his sophomore year with a new and improved range, shooting 42.2% from deep (on 3.3 attempts as a sophomore.) Now the star of the team, Porter’s 16.2 points per game helped him win Big East Player of the Year.
Porter parlayed that momentum into the #3 pick with the Washington Wizards. However, Porter proved to be a long way away, struggling with injuries and strength issues. He had one of the most disappointing seasons a #3 pick could have, scoring just 2.1 points per game. However, like at Georgetown, improvement was the name of the game with Porter. He’s gotten better each of his four years in the NBA, particularly in developing his three-point shot. He’s jolted from 19.0% as a rookie to 33.7% to 36.7% to a staggering 43.4% last year.
Playing alongside a star PG like John Wall has unquestionably helped Porter, but he’s been able to take advantage of those opportunities to become one of the most efficient players in the league. He averaged 13.4 points (on a sparkling 62% true shooting percentage), 6.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals against only 0.6 turnovers per game.
Porter may never be a star in the traditional sense, but he’s a valuable 3-and-D player in today’s NBA. If he can shoot as well as he did last season, he’ll be effective offensively. Defensively, he doesn’t have superb athleticism, but his length and height at 6’8″ allows him to be a “plus” defender capable of playing SF or some small ball PF.
The contract he’s getting
Porter will be entering free agency at a great time — he’s coming off a career year and is still only 24 years old. The one hiccup to his windfall is that he’s a restricted free agent, meaning that the Wizards will be able to match any offer he gets.
How big will those offers be? Possibly staggering. I would expect some teams to float Porter $20+ million a year, if not the entire max in an attempt to pry him away from Washington.
Teams that offer Porter that max should be well aware of what they’re getting — a player best utilized as a 2nd or 3rd option and not a go-to star. On the bright side, Porter is still young and has a great work ethic (as evidenced by his constant improvement) so you’re signing up for a player who should be entering his prime years from 25-30.
The best fits
(3) Brooklyn Nets
Basically, every team in the league could use an Otto Porter, given the high demand for 3-and-D wings these days. However, we have to look at teams that would actually want to pay $20+ million for him and make him a cornerstone of their franchise going forward.
The rebuilding Nets have a recent history of pursuing young restricted free agents, taking a stab at overpaying Tyler Johnson and Allen Crabbe last year. They certainly have the cap space to make a huge offer to Porter, whose a far more established player than those two.
Still, there are question marks for this fit. For one, is Porter (even at the age of 24) too old for this big of a rebuild? The Nets don’t have their pick next year either, so they could be 3-4 years away from fielding a competitive roster. Their “franchise player” right now is probably 21-year-old D’Angelo Russell, who fits into that timeline. Porter should still be good when he’s 28 or 29, but that’s a lot of money to spend in the meantime. Porter’s efficiency would also dip quite a bit as the star of the team, as he may be in Brooklyn.
(2) Denver Nuggets
On the other hand, the young Denver Nuggets are closer to the playoffs, almost making the playoffs last season after they turned the franchise over to Nikola Jokic.
Porter fits the team in several ways. For one, the team actually has the money to offer him a mammoth contract. Secondly, they have a glut of veteran forwards (Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried) who are all either free agents now or on the last year of their deal. Porter can slide into that SF-PF hole for the foreseeable future.
While Porter doesn’t project as a go-to star, he fits in with this team’s young core as well. Nikola Jokic may be only 22, but he’s ready to be the key facilitator for this team. 20-year-old Jamal Murray should eventually get to a place where he’s a big-time scorer as well. On a future Nuggets squad, Porter should be able to maintain his role of third banana effectively.
(1) Washington Wizards
Alas, at the end of the day, there’s no place like home. Some Wizards fans (like Joe House) may bristle at the idea of paying Otto Porter so much, particularly with John Wall slated to hit free agency soon, but it’s still their best option to keep their momentum going.
In fact, it may be their only option. With $90 million on the books for next year, there’s no tangible way to replace Porter on the roster. You can argue that the team has a quality replacement in house: with Porter-clone Kelly Oubre. However, that’s a big projection and gamble to make. Oubre still struggles with fouls and hasn’t shown nearly the same efficiency as a shooter so far (28.7% from three this season).
If I ran the Wizards, I’d try to convince Porter to stay on a reasonable contract (5 years, $100 million?) with the mutual understanding that he’s going to be the third option on the team going forward. Given Porter’s humility and ties to D.C., I wouldn’t be shocked if he takes a fair deal like that. But even if Porter plays hard ball and demands more, I’d probably bite the bullet and pony up. A core of John Wall – Bradley Beal – and Otto Porter can be a force in the East for the future, provided they make smarter decisions with the rest of the roster and build quality depth around them.
